Ryder Cup Big Board: Ranking the players 1-24 ahead of play at Marco Simone

The No. 1 player in the world checks in at No. 4 on our list. Absurd? Over-reactive? Maybe. But you have to ask yourself this: With a match hanging in the balance, on a green surrounded by 10,000 people, do you — right now — trust Scheffler to roll in an 8-foot putt?

There’s the rub. Yes, Scheffler is a ball-striking deity and can be paired perfectly with one of the team’s better putters (Sam Burns, most likely), but there will come times when Scheffler has to stand over some pulse-pumping, pressure-filled putts. In those instances, it’s impossible to unsee some of this year’s struggles on the green. In Datagolf’s strokes gained putting rankings measured over the last two years, 14 of this Ryder Cup’s 24 players rank inside the top 50 in the world. The next nine Ryder Cup participants rank between 57-169. Then there’s Scheffler, improbably, at 256th.

All that said, Scheffler went 2-0-1 at Whistling Straits and could very well pick Marco Simone apart. Hitting the ball close to the hole is a helluva skill.

In addition to Burns, it’s plausible to see Scheffler potentially paired with Brooks Koepka or Brian Harman. It will be fascinating to see what the Americans can get out of Scheffler, this team’s top dog, compared to what the Europeans get out of the McIlroy/Hovland/Rahm trio.

It says something that Jordan Spieth is not a top-10 golfer in the world by any metric yet is unanimously in the top five on this list entering the Ryder Cup. He is the unofficial captain of this U.S. team, the three-time major winner who has been on every team since 2014. There are golfers far below him on this list who are better drivers, iron players or putters, and shoot, his 8-7-3 record isn’t even near the best Ryder Cup record on this team. But he is the experienced veteran and competitor you want on your side in this competition.

Spieth brings an all-around, well-balanced game that had him in the top half of the PGA Tour in all the strokes gained categories. But Spieth’s calling card is that he’s one of the most creative and impulsive players in the world. That can come back to bite him in weekly stroke play tournaments, but it’s why he’s a match-play legend. He’s 13-5-1 in his Presidents Cup career including 5-0-0 last year at Quail Hollow.

So much of Spieth’s strength is in his partnership with Justin Thomas. The duo are lifelong friends and are 8-2-0, including four wins together at Quail Hollow. One of those two losses, though, was to the red-hot Jon Rahm and Sergio Garcia at Whistling Straits in 2021. The big question is how the duo will do now, as Thomas is in the worst form of his career and Spieth isn’t exactly a juggernaut. Will they bring the best out of each other or take a step back?

He hasn’t won the big tournaments you’d expect. He hasn’t even won that many tournaments in general. But Xander Schauffele has been the absolute model of balance and consistency in golf the last five years. He’s been top 10 in the world in strokes gained each of those seasons and has been top five in three of them. He’s had seven or more top-five tournament finishes each of the last three seasons and 17 top-20s all three years. Yes, Schauffele needs to win more, but if you’re simply looking at the best golfers, Schauffele is without a doubt one of them.

He’s coming off the best ball-striking season of his career, gaining 1.12 strokes compared to the field in approach. Only Scheffler and Collin Morikawa were better. He also comes to Rome with a reputation as one of the better match-play golfers, going 3-1 as a rookie at Whistling Straits and 3-1 at last year’s Presidents Cup to bring his overall cup record to 9-4.

The other X-factor with Schauffele is that he may be in the current best partnership in golf. He and good friend Patrick Cantlay (more on him below) are 5-0 together playing foursomes between the Ryder and Presidents Cups. They also won the 2022 Zurich Classic, the PGA Tour’s lone team event. Oh, and they hold both the nine-hole and 18-hole scoring records at the event. They are interestingly only 1-3 in fourball together, which is likely why 2021 U.S. Ryder Cup captain Steve Stricker split them up in Friday fourball, and Schauffele won that matchup paired with Dustin Johnson. Zach Johnson might make that same decision considering the staff is so data-focused, but it’s difficult to break these two up.

It’s difficult to separate Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele sometimes. Yes, because of their elite partnership going 5-0 in foursomes together in the Ryder Cup and Presidents Cup, but also because they are so similar as individual golfers. Like Schauffele, Cantlay is eerily consistent and successful despite not competing well in majors nor winning many big events. He’s No. 5 in the DataGolf rankings and has lived in the top five for the past three years because he’s so good at all four phases. It’s also why he’s 9-3-1 for the U.S. in cup competitions, proving to be maybe the best current U.S. cup golfer outside of Justin Thomas in the last five years.

There is no flaw to Cantlay’s game, but it’s his ability going from tee to green that makes him elite. He might even be the U.S.’s best course fit for Marco Simone, because he combines great driving accuracy with great distance, hence why he was fifth in strokes gained off the tee this season and third in tee to green. That will be the key in Rome, but his putting and short game are no slouch themselves.

As mentioned with Schauffele, the biggest calling card for Cantlay is their partnership which doesn’t just extend to their three cups together as partners. They also won the 2022 Zurich Classic (the tour’s lone team event) and set the nine-hole and 18-hole scoring records. It’s a guarantee they’ll be back together for both foursome matches. The big question is what Zach Johnson decides with fourball. They are 1-3 together in that format, which is why Stricker paired them with other people in that format at Whistling Straits. What the data tells them to do this year will be fascinating.

In some ways, Collin Morikawa’s 2023 never recovered from the first tournament of the year — where he infamously gave up a six-shot lead to Jon Rahm in a wild Sunday finish at the Tournament of Champions, a record-tying 54-hole lead sacrificed with bogey after bogey. Oh sure, there was a top 10 at the Masters, a playoff made in Detroit and T6 in the season-long FedEx Cup standings. But major wins in 2020 and 2021 gave golf fans the idea that Morikawa, still just 26 years old, was capable of greatness, and his last two seasons have been more Hall of Very Good.

Still, Morikawa was an automatic take for captain Zach Johnson, especially at a golf course that will demand accurate tee shots. Morikawa was the second most accurate driver on the PGA Tour this year, finding 747 fairways on 1,047 tee shots. His iron play is second only to Scottie Scheffler among some advanced analytics, and he’s seen enough pressure golf to believe he has the temperament for this (though shudder if he draws Rahm in Sunday singles).

Morikawa is a man without a partner ahead of this Ryder Cup; he and Dustin Johnson had magic together two years ago, but Johnson failed to make this team. Morikawa teamed up with Cameron Young in last year’s Presidents Cup and again found success, but Young was a snub for this Ryder Cup team. The familiarity option is fellow Cal Bear Max Homa, a first-time Ryder Cup player, and it makes some sense in alternate shot because Morikawa is elite off the tee and Homa can make magic happen around the greens.

In 2022 Brooks Koepka looked around at some of his closest confidantes, including his wife, and admitted that he didn’t know if he could “compete with these guys week in, week out.” That moment, filmed for Netflix’s “Full Swing” series, showed Koepka at his low, struggling with injury and questioning his future, and is often pointed to as a reason why Koepka said yes to LIV Golf’s guaranteed millions later that year.

Of course, now he’s back, if not competing with the best on a week-to-week basis on the PGA Tour at least able to summon the strength at the majors — his 2023 PGA Championship win at Oak Hill was Koepka’s fifth major, tying him with Seve Ballestros and Byron Nelson, among others. It was a vintage Koepka performance, pushing down on the accelerator on Friday and Saturday then staying well out in front of his competition (in this case, Viktor Hovland) on Sunday. That week, combined with a T2 a month earlier at the Masters, left him a made cut on the PGA Tour away from making the Ryder Cup team on points. But he was always in — even if he plays on the LIV tour, the PGA Tour guys that take up the 11 other spots in the U.S. team room view him as one of them.

Now what can we expect of Koepka? The rest of his summer was not nearly that good, though also keep in mind his wife Jena gave birth to their first child prematurely, naturally splitting his focus. Pairing him with Brian Harman, an in-form golfer making his Ryder Cup debut, makes a lot of sense. It’s a good mesh of their games and personalities, and captain Zach Johnson can lean into Koepka’s alpha tendencies by suggesting he needs him to show Harman how a Ryder Cup is won.

Ah yes, the captain’s pick who is most destined to be debated over multiple bottles of red wine this week in the Italian countryside.

By now the whole thing has gone off the rails, the question of whether or not Justin Thomas should still receive a captain’s pick in a career-worst season devolving into something like, “What do we want the United States team to be?” We’ll just point out that the Europeans once suggested Ian Poulter should be on the team no matter what, and extended that notion to Sergio Garcia later on. And that the Euros have won for the last 30 years on home soil, with those two proving pivotal time and again. It is of little solace to snubbed Keegan Bradley or Cameron Young, but Thomas is the American version of Poulter — a match play legend that elevates his game in those moments, willing and capable of doing every little thing he can to irritate and annoy the opposition into submission.

So yes, Thomas will be in Rome. If Jordan Spieth’s track record and level-headness make him ideal to serve as the team’s voice outside the room, be assured that Thomas is the loudest voice inside of it. Put him in red, white and blue, and the vibes are immaculate. He’ll play with Spieth and the Americans will hope that Thomas’ game rallies to the moment. A fifth-place finish at this month’s Fortinet Championship lends hope.

Homa was selected by U.S. captain Davis Love III for the Presidents Cup team last summer, marking another rung on his climb from the depths of pro golf to world-class caliber. He delivered a 4-0-0 showing that he later described as ”validating.”

Homa didn’t just play lights-out golf that week at Quail Hollow, he showed a knack for rising to the moment. He finished birdie-birdie in a Friday afternoon four-ball match that included a fist-throwing final putt on 18 that set off a furious U.S. celebration. It was the highlight of the Americans’ three-day blowout performance.

The Ryder Cup is a different deal. More pressure. More adrenaline. Homa’s disposition is seemingly made for such a stage, but he’s still a rookie, nevertheless.

At the Presidents Cup, Homa rode with Tony Finau and Billy Horschel in team matches. Neither will be in Rome. That leaves Collin Morikawa, who Homa teamed with at the Zurich Classic, as the obvious pairing. A SoCal connection of certified flushers.

That said, should the decision be made to split up the traditional Justin Thomas-Jordan Spieth pairing at any point (perhaps sending out a Spieth/Rickie Fowler team for a match, for instance), it’d be electric to see Homa and Thomas team up for an arm-waving, fist-pumping, hell-raising good time.

After posting back-to-back top 10s at the FedEx St. Jude and BMW Championship to reach East Lake, Homa played in last week’s Fortinet Championship, where he was the two-time defending champion. He finished tied for seventh.

Harman, 36, is both the oldest member of the U.S. team and one of four rookies on it. As an amateur, he played on Walker Cup (2005, 2009) and Palmer Cup (2006, 2007) teams, but that was a long time ago.

Both Harman and Wyndham Clark bring a curious element to the U.S. team — major winners who no one saw coming that now, suddenly and unexpectedly, find themselves on golf’s biggest stage.

American rookies are 50-61-23 on European soil in modern Ryder Cup history (since the inclusion of Continental Europe in 1979), but 12-7-2 in the last two trips abroad. Can Harman, Clark, Max Homa and Sam Burns keep pace with that? Considering how top-heavy the Euro team is, the U.S. might need that type of showing from the newcomers.

Since winning the Open Championship, Harman has maintained good form and ranks fourth among U.S. players in total strokes gained over the last three months. He’s well-liked, an elite putter and accurate off the tee, making him a pliable fit with anyone on the roster. While the assumption exists that Scottie Scheffler will primarily play with Sam Burns, a possible partnership with Harman also makes a lot of sense.

It would be disingenuous to say Rickie Fowler made this team because of a heater, just like it would be disingenuous to say he’s only on it because of a “boys club.” Fowler’s rise to become a no-brainer pick is about the entire picture, how he is both having his best season in five years and because of the way he fits on this team.

As of December 2022, DataGolf had Fowler playing like the 94th best golfer in the world. By July, he was No. 9 and still sits at 14th. He made a caddie change, equipment changes and shifts to his mental approach in order to have one of the best seasons on tour with a remarkable 16 top 20 finishes, a T5 at the U.S. Open and a win in Detroit. He had no bad weeks thanks to a remarkable shift in both approach and putting, gaining 0.82 strokes in approach and 0.41 putting this year. His form alone made him one of the 12 best Americans this cycle.

Fowler also might be the most universally liked player in golf. He seemingly gets along with everyone, and stories of his kindness abound on tour. Some might roll their eyes, but that matters at the Ryder Cup. Team chemistry is crucial, and it also helps that he can be paired with almost anyone. One possibility is Wyndham Clark. They were both Oklahoma State Cowboys, and go back to Sunday in the final grouping at the U.S. Open. Clark was starting to get antsy, and Fowler had fallen out of it, so Fowler and his caddie were intentionally trying to keep it light to help Clark out during those final few holes. That’s some Ryder Cup stuff right there.

It’s become common to hear that Clark only made this team because he won the U.S. Open, and that certainly didn’t hurt, but it was the entirety of the 29-year-old’s out-of-nowhere season that made him an automatic qualifier. He won the elevated Wells Fargo Championship against a loaded field, and he also finished top 40 or better in nine elevated events. It wasn’t just one great week, as he’s ranked No. 13 on DataGolf.

The key to Clark’s turnaround has been his ball striking. He went from losing strokes in approach every single year of his career to being top 30 on tour. That was massive, considering it boosted an already good putter to turn his career around. The primary question with Clark might be his driving accuracy. He hits it long, but the expectation is the Marco Simone setup will require players to hit fairways. He’s also simply new to being in this type of environment, and it’s difficult to predict how he’ll handle it.

Clark certainly feels more like a fourball pick than foursomes. He has the ability to go low, but he also has the risk of blowup holes. His and Rickie Fowler’s shared Oklahoma State background and their support of one another at the U.S. Open could make for a strong pairing. Brooks Koepka is also an interesting idea, giving Clark a calm, veteran winner in his first Ryder Cup.

Sam Burns has won five PGA Tour events in the last three seasons, including this year’s Match Play event in Austin, Texas. Gee, isn’t the Ryder Cup a match play event? So why is Burns perhaps an even more controversial selection than Justin Thomas?

Because Burns’ wins all have a similar vibe to them — he’s won in Florida and Texas twice each, and in Mississippi once. All the courses feature bermudagrass greens, which is dominant in the southern United States and familiar to the Louisiana-born Burns. Nothing wrong with that — all golfers have their favorite courses for any number of reasons, and putting surface checks out as a valid reason to love the tour’s Florida swing.

But … the Ryder Cup is in Italy. Marco Simone relies on paspalum for its greens, and no doubt the stimpmeter will be turned up this week. Burns can still be a weapon with the putter in his hands, but probably not at the level he has been during the best weeks of his career.

He’s expected to pair with Scottie Scheffler — the two are long-time friends, though that did not translate to success at last year’s Presidents Cup, Burns’ first professional team match play event.