The Hot Read, Week 7: Lamar Jackson for MVP

This is the Hot Read. In this column, you’ll find everything and anything I found interesting from the NFL Week 7 Sunday action. There’s the stuff that everyone’s talking about, and the stuff that nobody’s talking about; the stuff that makes football incredible, and the stuff that makes football fun. I hope you enjoy it and learn something cool—and if you do, I hope you’re back next week, when we do it all again.

The Big Thing: Lamar for MVP

A lot happened in the NFL on Sunday. If there’s one thing you need to know, it’s this.

When Lamar Jackson entered the league in 2018, he was an immediate sensation. We had seen rushing quarterbacks before—Cam Newton; Colin Kaepernick; Robert Griffin III; heck, Randall Cunningham—but we had never seen anything like this. Maybe Michael Vick; but then again, Jackson broke Vick’s single-season rushing record by 167 yards in his first year as a starter.

In that first year as a starter, Jackson won the MVP award. He won it unanimously (one of only two players to ever do so). That season, he was 22 years old.

But Jackson was more than a sensation. He was an influence—the way he succeeded affected the way we think about quarterbacking. Check the past few seasons: Quarterback rushing is way up. Option runs are everywhere; just ask Josh Dobbs and Daniel Jones, who have enjoyed career years thanks to such plays. Jalen Hurts, Kyler Murray—so many quarterbacks have had their careers impacted by Jackson’s success.

But that was the 2019 MVP award. This year isn’t about that. It isn’t about how a young, under-drafted quarterback changed the way we think about possible styles of offense and the ideal way to play the position. This year, it’s about how Jackson is just playing better football than everyone else.

Watch these plays.

Jackson always has been able to make plays like these. The sorts of runs and throws and improvisations that only a few quarterbacks can make. But what was long missing from this offense was a well-structured passing attack featuring multiple legitimate receiving options. That’s no longer absent, and it’s leading to the spike in Jackson’s performance. Watch how smoothly the Ravens’ passing game worked against the Lions on Sunday.

Jackson ended the day with 357 yards on only 27 attempts—an astonishing 13.2 yards per attempt. He had three passing touchdowns and added another on the ground—four scores, six total incompletions. It was as effortlessly dominant of a day as a quarterback can have. This was the best game, by expected points added per dropback, of Lamar’s career since his 2019 season—you know, the MVP year.

Jackson has completed 71 percent of his passes this year, second only to Tua Tagovailoa (by less than a percentage point)—this, despite 10 drops through the first six games of the season (the Lions game hasn’t been charted yet), per TruMedia. That would be the best single-season mark for him comfortably, as would be the 3,910 passing yards that he is on pace for. Throw in the 363 rushing yards, which put Jackson on pace for 882 rushing yards on the season, and Jackson is comfortably on track to do something that has been done only once before in NFL history: throw for at least 3,800 yards and rush for another 800.

That’s cool, right? It’ll be even sicker if he ends up at 4,000/1,000 because of the nice, round numbers. But honestly, that isn’t really the important part to me. The important part is how undefendable Jackson is.

Consider the opponents that the Ravens have faced. The best defense in the NFL, by expected points added per drive, is the Cleveland Browns. Through the first three weeks of the season, they were suffocating (the Bengals, the Steelers, the Titans). Then, they ran into the Ravens in Week 4.

And what about the Lions, on whom the Ravens just consummately dunked? They’d be ranked eighth in EPA per drive without their matchup against the Ravens. Here’s their EPA per drive by game.

And the Bengals, whom the Ravens beat in Week 2? They’d be ninth in EPA per drive without their Ravens game. Here’s their weekly graph.

This is as strong of a single-stat argument as you can make for a player’s status as most valuable. Of course, the award typically goes to a quarterback with a lot of counting stats, and Jackson will have those. But Jackson affects both phases of the offensive game—as an elite passer and unique run threat—and provides his offense with a rare versatility. Defenses that stop regular offenses fail to stop his. They just can’t have an answer for his rushing ability, his passing ability, and the structure of the offense all at the same time. If we are talking about truly valuable players—players without whom their teams would crumble—Jackson is the clear and obvious choice through seven weeks.

The Little Things

It’s the little things in football that matter the most—zany plays, small victories, and some laughs. Here’s where you can find them.

1. THE SAIL TECH from Jabrill Peppers

This is a sail route.

The Bills love to throw this route, and the opponents of the Bills know it. Josh Allen, in particular, likes to throw the sail route late—his arm strength often lets him get away with it. The New England Patriots knew this (they saw him do it in Week 1 against the Jets for a pick).

Watch safety Jabrill Peppers from the beginning of the play. He’s playing with a technique explicitly called “sail tech” because it takes away the sail route.

He initially looks like he’s connected to the flat, but is immediately ready to flip his hips and sink underneath the sail. This was Allen’s first pass attempt of the game, and it was a tone-setting play for the Patriots.

This is good coaching. It’s great defensive technique—excellent bait, as Peppers called it. It’s why Bill Belichick is still a good coach, as we talked about in Week 5. What a ship-righting win in New England.

2. THE CLASSIC drop-tip-drill-touchdown-catch play

Things are rough for the Packers offensively. I don’t know the solutions. What I do know is that Jordan Love deserved a touchdown on this play, and he got one—just a little circuitously.

It’s a great play from Love, who correctly pulls the ball on the RPO, starts to throw to Romeo Doubs on the little shield/slant route combo, sees the unblocked Bronco sitting in the window, and pump-fakes him into the air so he can get the ball to Doubs. A legit drop here would have absolutely sucked on what is a great piece of quarterbacking.

But, hey, all’s well that ends well. Good on Jayden Reed for paying attention and stuffing his stat sheet. (If I were the defensive back, I would have been screaming at the ref for offensive pass interference.)

3. THE ROOKIE wide receiver class

Zay Flowers? No, no. Not that guy. Jordan Addison? Never heard of him. Jaxon Smith-Njigba had a touchdown on Sunday? Not interested.

Let’s talk UDFA Jake Bobo with the wild toe-tapper that was ruled a catch on review.

And of course, fifth-round pick Puka Nacua couldn’t give Bobo too much of the spotlight. His toe-tapper didn’t go for a touchdown, but to make this catch through contact? Get out, man.

I’ve said this before, and I’ll say it every year until I’m proved otherwise: There will never be a bad wide receiver class again. Nacua and Bobo were available for the same amount of draft capital the Vikings traded to the Ravens for Kaare Vedvik, a placekicker. If your team isn’t taking a swing on a random receiver somewhere in the draft, they’re missing out on the easiest way to get young talent.

4. THE EASE with which T.J. Watt dropped into coverage and picked this pass off

It’s hard to find good coverage linebackers. The vision and situational understanding to widen with the vertical route, then close hard into the pivot route and surprise the quarterback here—that’s just not something most off-ball linebackers have.

Of course, this isn’t an off-ball linebacker. It’s Watt, who—when he isn’t making Roquan Smith–esque plays in coverage—is tied for the league lead in sacks, with eight.

Obnoxiously good player.

The Zag: The Atlanta Falcons Are Good

I tend to be a little contrarian. It’s not so much a personal choice as it is an occupational hazard. Here’s where I’ll plant my flag.

The average football fan seems to hate Falcons head coach Arthur Smith. I think that’s because the average football fan is a fantasy football player, and Smith’s offense is a nightmare for fantasy football. Trade acquisition tight end Jonnu Smith has more receiving yards (309) than fellow tight end and 2021 no. 4 pick Kyle Pitts (298). Quarterback Desmond Ridder (three) and backup running back Tyler Allgeier (two) both have more rushing touchdowns than top-10 rookie running back Bijan Robinson (zero). Bijan in particular was the culprit of Falcons ire this weekend, as an unreported illness kept him off the field for all but 10 snaps.

Well, I’m here to defend Arthur Smith and the Falcons offense.

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It’s not even a little bit hard. The Falcons are 12th in offensive success rate this season; they’ve done well to control the ball and stay ahead of the sticks.

They are 14th in explosive designed run rate (gains of at least 10 yards). Their explosive pass rate (gains of at least 20 yards) is only 19th, but they tend to work intermediate a lot more than they do deep—27 percent of their pass attempts go for at least 10 yards, which is eighth in the NFL.

By EPA per drive? They are 24th.

Why so bad? It’s just turnovers. The Falcons are fifth in offensive EPA lost to turnovers. In this Week 7 game against the Buccaneers alone, the Falcons lost 14.4 expected points on three turnovers: a Ridder sack fumble at the Buccaneers’ 11, a Ridder fumbled snap at the Buccaneers’ 1, and a Ridder fumble on a coulda-woulda-absolutely-shoulda-been-a-touchdown scramble at, you guessed it, the Buccaneers’ 1.

This three-turnover Ridder performance comes on the back of a three-turnover Ridder performance in an actual loss: Week 6 against the Commanders, in which Ridder threw three picks—two in Washington territory.

The consternation over the Falcons offense that isn’t just misdirected fantasy angst centers on the play of Ridder, who absolutely must cut down on the turnovers. But Ridder wasn’t at fault for all of them, and turnovers tend to be noisy things—one week, there are lots of ’em, and the next week, they’re gone. Meanwhile, within all of those turnovers, Ridder is sixth in success rate among quarterbacks over the past two weeks! He’s ninth in EPA per dropback! He’s been playing well!

Of course, committing crucial turnovers will lose you games. That was the story of the Commanders’ loss, and it was almost the story of the win over the Bucs. Fortunately for Ridder, he’s largely been clutch in late-game situations, with game-winning drives against the Buccaneers, Texans, and Packers; that’s three of their four wins. Credit also goes to a nails kicker in Younghoe Koo and a surprisingly stout defense under first-year defensive coordinator Ryan Nielsen. The Falcons are 4-3 and in control of the NFC South despite the crippling mistakes.

If Ridder can eliminate the turnovers—both with some friendly statistical regression and improved play as he continues to accumulate starts—then this Falcons offense will suddenly look like what it already is: a solid unit with room to keep growing.

(Mostly Real) Awards

I’ll hand out some awards. Most of them will be real. Some of them won’t be.

Defensive Player of the Year (of the Week) (but also probably of the Year): Browns defensive end Myles Garrett

Garrett was responsible for 10 points for the Browns in what ended up being a one-point win. He honestly would have a legit case as MVP of the week if not for the fact that Lamar is and will be for the rest of time.

Anyway, here’s the touchdown that Garrett created. He stripped Gardner Minshew in the end zone, and teammate Tony Fields II recovered the fumble for a score.

And the three points? That comes on this ludicrous blocked field goal. If Garrett had so much as grazed the long snapper on this leap, it would’ve been a penalty—but he cleared him without contact, putting him in place for one of the most intimidating sights a placekicker can see: Garrett, bearing down.

What a winning effort for a star player.

The Wondering What You Do Here Award: Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels

Listen. I’m bored of doing “McDaniels doesn’t know how to manage a drive” content. You’re bored of reading “McDaniels doesn’t know how to manage a drive” content. So why am I doing “McDaniels doesn’t know how to manage a drive” content?

Because McDaniels doesn’t know how to manage a drive! And it’s frankly infuriating! I don’t know why he’s so committed to hurting his team! It’s disorienting! And upsetting!

Anyway, McDaniels’s Raiders were down 21-3, so he went for it on fourth-and-4 from the 9-yard line. The Raiders got it. Then, they had fourth-and-goal from the 6. And he kicked a field goal.

Sure.

Offensive Rookie of the Year (of the Week): Bears QB Tyson Bagent

Entering this week’s game against the Raiders, the Bears had won two games in the past 385 calendar days—they hadn’t won a home game in 392 days! In the business, that’s what we call a real tough look, chief.

All of that is forgotten. They finished the Raiders game as not just victors, but emphatic victors—30-12!—on the back of a resoundingly competent performance from rookie quarterback Bagent.

Bagent, who was dropping 47 points on the West Chester Golden Rams this time last year, earned the QB2 job with quality play this preseason, but on a Bears offense missing RB1 Khalil Herbert, RB2 Roschon Johnson, and right guard Nate Davis, it felt unlikely that his first NFL start would go swimmingly. Yet the Bears running game excelled with D’Onta Foreman in the backfield, and Bagent played mistake-free football while extending plays with his legs.

The Bears have not found their quarterback of the future—as fun as it would be to claim that. But Bagent looked better than other late-round rookies we’ve seen thus far, and I’m excited to see what he’ll look like over the next few weeks of Justin Fields’s unavailability.

Of course, if he plays just well enough to win a couple more games and push the Bears’ first-round pick out of contention for the top selection … well, that’d be just deliciously Bearish, wouldn’t it?

Defensive Rookie of the Year (of the Week): Seahawks CB Devon Witherspoon

Here’s why.

Moving on.

Defense of the Year (of the Week): The Philadelphia Eagles

If I knew one thing entering this NFL Sunday, I knew that an Eagles secondary featuring Eli Ricks, Terrell Edmunds, and Sydney Brown would get burned by the Miami Dolphins passing game. There are a few unimpeachable truths in football, and one is that the Dolphins offense doesn’t really stop for anyone, and it certainly doesn’t stop for this group.

Well. The Eagles held the Dolphins to only 10 offensive points (their second touchdown, in a 31-17 loss, was scored off a pick-six). That’s the lowest in a game featuring both Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa. The Eagles sacked Tagovailoa on 8.6 percent of his dropbacks (he averages 4.6 percent under McDaniel), held him to an explosive play rate of 5.6 percent on his dropbacks (he averages 11 percent), and held the Dolphins to 52 yards after the catch (they average 114).

This was the best game a defense has had against the Miami Dolphins, and it came just three weeks after this same Eagles unit gave up 31 points to the Washington Commanders. What an astonishing performance from Sean Desai’s unit.

Next Ben Stats

What it sounds like: Next Gen Stats, but I get to make them up.

6: That’s how many wins the Chiefs have

I am sick and tired of performative worry about the Kansas City Chiefs. Everywhere I look, someone has questions about their receiver room and the explosiveness of the offense—concerns that it doesn’t look the same as it used to.

I couldn’t be less concerned. I’ve seen Patrick Mahomes play enough football games to know that he’ll get points on the board in the passing game if and when he must, independent of the targets he has available. Thirty-two for 42, 424 yards, four touchdowns, and there’s barely a peep anymore. We’ve all been desensitized to this man’s dominance.

Meanwhile, lost in all the worry about the Chiefs offense, little has been said of a defense that has given up 20 or fewer offensive points in every single game this season (the Lions’ 21 points, in Week 1, included a pick-six). Kansas City is eighth in defensive success rate and fifth in EPA per drive, and it just got key free agent Charles Omenihu back from suspension—and no sooner than needed. He had a critical batted pass at the line that became a red zone interception.

The idea that the Chiefs are somehow less than they were because the pass catchers are young and inconsistent is, to me, codswallop. They have Andy Reid and Mahomes, which is all I really need to see; Spags and the defense are just gravy on top. This team won the Super Bowl last year, and it could win it again this year.

2 2/3: That’s how many football fields of yardage Sam Howell has lost on sacks this year

Two hundred and sixty-seven yards in seven games is astonishing: 38.14 yards per game. That’s more yards per game than Elijah Moore, George Kittle, or Michael Gallup has receiving per game. More yards per game than Miles Sanders has rushing per game. Howell is on pace to lose 648 yards on 97 sacks this year, which would absolutely shatter the previous records of 489 yards (Randall Cunningham, 1986) and 76 sacks (David Carr, 2002).

I am not positive yet. But I think this is more impressive than it is tragic. I think I love it, and I’m rooting for him to get to around 100.

0.25 EPA per dropback: That’s how much better Jacoby Brissett was with Kevin Stefanski than Deshaun Watson has been

I won’t tell you that I understand what’s going on with Watson’s shoulder injury, which kept him (by his own choice) out of the Week 4 game against the Ravens, and later kept him out of the Week 6 game against the 49ers, and then apparently affected his throwing against the Colts on Sunday, and then was also the reason he stayed on the sideline after clearing the concussion protocol. (See why I’m confused?)

What I will do, however, is show you Watson’s stats (10 starts) vs. Brissett’s (11 starts) over the past two seasons of Browns football.