NBA Power Rankings: Where All 30 Teams Start On Opening Night

It's here!

After another NBA offseason packed with player movement, drama, rumors, a draft, our first extended look at Victor Wembanyama, a FIBA World Cup and more, we've officially made it to the 2023-24 campaign.

And that means it's time to break down where each team stands as this season tips off.

Are the reigning champion Denver Nuggets still the best team in the league? Are the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Phoenix Suns or even Los Angeles Lakers real challengers? And who'll emerge as the early favorites to land the best draft lottery odds?

Those questions and more are answered below.

As for the order, it's determined with the same criteria that guided us last season (championship chances, recent performance, numbers and loads of subjectivity), but since no one's played a game yet, the first and last factors there carry a little more weight this time.

On paper, there's reason for some short-term optimism for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Anfernee Simons could be in for a huge individual season, and if veterans Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Robert Williams III last the whole season in Portland, the Blazers could at least be competitive.

But it certainly sounds like Brogdon understands that this season will be as much about the development of Scoot Henderson (and his chemistry with Deandre Ayton) as anything else.

And it still feels pretty likely that he and Grant (and maybe even Williams) get moved prior to February's trade deadline. If (or when) that happens, Portland should cruise toward top-three lottery odds.

There are plenty of questions about the young Detroit Pistons rotation right now, but as is the case with Portland, most of them could be sorted out through the trade market.

Monty Williams doesn't seem like a coach who'd be comfortable punting games for the sake of lottery odds, so he'll likely play veterans like Bojan Bogdanović and Alec Burks as long as they're there.

But the front office can force his hand by moving either or both for draft assets or other young players. And that would open the door for chemistry-building minutes with Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey, Ausar Thompson, Killian Hayes and Jalen Duren.

It'd also lead to plenty of losses, and yes, better lottery odds.

There will be flashes from Wembanyama and his intriguing supporting cast throughout the season that suggest they could be competitive earlier than expected.

The big man already looks like he could be one of the most dynamic defensive presences in the league this season. And on nights when his jumper is rolling, he'll seem unstoppable on the other end too (as he was during his preseason debut).

But he's still just 19 years old. There will be other games when the league's burlier centers are keeping him off balance. And without another surefire star on the roster, there isn't a ton for the San Antonio Spurs to fall back on.

That isn't to say Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson won't have their big performances, but the depth and talent of the Western Conference is going to overwhelm this younger roster in most games.

Ideally, the Charlotte Hornets will get more than 36 games out of LaMelo Ball this season. And if he's in that 70-75 range for appearances, Charlotte should have an opportunity to exceed last season's 27-win total.

That's just a natural assumption with a player who's averaged 21.1 points, 7.9 assists and 3.3 threes while shooting 38.4 percent from deep over the last two seasons.

But it's also not a guarantee.

The Hornets' point differential is only marginally better with Ball on the floor during that same span, Gordon Hayward's durability is always in question, and the depth after those two, P.J. Washington and Terry Rozier is kind of a mystery too.

The bigger key to exceeding expectations (their over/under for wins is 31.5) may be incoming rookie Brandon Miller. If the three-point specialist from Alabama is a positive contributor right away, 30-plus wins feels a lot more attainable.

The Washington Wizards are going to surprise some people this season. There are real, quality NBA players in their rotation and at least two potentially dynamic scorers.

Jordan Poole gave us a glimpse of his upside as a No. 1 option last week when he dropped 41 points in just 27 preseason minutes against the New York Knicks.

And he isn't the only player on the roster with a 20-point-per-game season under his belt. He and Kyle Kuzma both cleared that benchmark in 2022-23.

Of course, both also posted below-average scoring efficiency in their respective campaigns, but they'll have one of the game's steadiest point guards in Tyus Jones to set them up in 2023-24. That should lead to plenty of makable shots.

If a largely positionless group of young forwards that includes Deni Avdija, Corey Kispert and Bilal Coulibaly is a little ahead of schedule, this team might even flirt with a spot in the play-in tournament.

They might not have slapped the label on him, but Scottie Barnes essentially played point guard as a freshman at Florida State. And though he won Rookie of the Year with the Toronto Raptors, it hasn't felt like they've truly embraced his point forward potential.

But this preseason offered some hints that they might be ready to do so in 2023-24.

Dennis Schröder was ostensibly brought in to replace Fred VanVleet, but Barnes still averaged 5.7 assists per 75 possessions in the exhibitions when he was given plenty of opportunities to create.

Putting him in the middle of the floor and allowing him to attack the rim and then look for shooters will be a good way to mitigate his own struggles from the outside. And a leap from Barnes could more than make up for the loss of VanVleet.

Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and Jalen Green all figure to be staples in the Houston Rockets' rotation, but it's clear the team wanted to speed up its developmental timeline this summer.

It hired Ime Udoka to coach, paid big money to VanVleet and Dillon Brooks and even bolstered the bench by signing Jock Landale. The experience of those four will almost certainly accelerate the progression of the younger Rockets and help Houston clear the 22 wins it totaled last season.

Pushing for the play-in, though (which isn't out of the question), will probably depend on the aforementioned youth.

Smith already looks more empowered as a playmaker than he did under former coach Stephen Silas. Şengün struggled from the field in the preseason but averaged 5.5 assists per 75 possessions entering Friday's preseason finale. And Green being surrounded by more help should be a boon to his scoring efficiency (he was one of the worst high-volume shooters in the league last season).

With Lonzo Ball set to miss his second consecutive full campaign, the Chicago Bulls' fortunes are once again largely tied to the trio of Zach LaVine, DeMar DeRozan and Nikola Vučević.

In 2022-23, Chicago was an unencouraging minus-0.9 points per 100 possessions when all three were on the floor. And given the fact that 28-year-old LaVine is the youngest member of the trio, it's probably not fair to expect a ton of individual development from any of them.

However, continuity can certainly be a plus. And even if all three of the team's stars are beyond significant improvements to their own games, there's at least a chance they'll better understand how to play with each other in 2023-24.

And if players like Alex Caruso, Patrick Williams and Jevon Carter can provide enough defense around them, the Bulls should be in the play-in mix again.

Tyrese Haliburton didn't play much in the preseason, but he really doesn't have anything to prove anyway.

After averaging 20.7 points and 10.4 assists and playing at an All-NBA level (even if he wasn't actually selected to one of the teams) in 2022-23, Haliburton proved he is one of the best point guards in the league. And having that level of playmaker on the roster elevates the games of everyone else.

With him, veterans like Myles Turner and Buddy Hield (assuming he isn't traded), developing young players like Bennedict Mathurin and Obi Toppin and a new gap-filler in Bruce Brown, Indiana has an outside shot at finishing among those top six teams that are guaranteed a playoff spot.

According to preseason player rankings from over a dozen outlets, Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner are both top 60 players headed into 2023-24.

And, as Patrick Beverley noted on his Pat Bev Pod, having two players in that range should probably put the Orlando Magic in the playoffs.

Consider this placement in the power rankings a soft bet on their potential to get there.

Of course, the league's talent pool is deeper than it's ever been. There won't be many teams clearly tanking in 2023-24 (at least not right off the bat). And the Magic are still one of the youngest teams in the NBA. They could once again finish in the conference's bottom five.

But Banchero and Wagner make up one of the game's most intriguing forward duos. Both can create for themselves and others. They're 6'10" and 6'9", respectively. Both have the upside to be 20-plus-point-per-game scorers on decent efficiency.

And despite the team finishing below .500 in 2022-23, it was plus-3.1 points per 100 possessions when those two shared the floor with Wendell Carter Jr. and Markelle Fultz (who missed most of the 5-20 start to the campaign).

With those four back, Jalen Suggs and Cole Anthony presumably improving and Joe Ingles now around to stabilize the bench, Orlando can make the playoffs.

The Utah Jazz's guard rotation has to be one of the league's bigger mysteries, but the frontcourt has a legitimate chance to be among the best.

Lauri Markkanen was a rightful All-NBA candidate in 2022-23 when he averaged 25.6 points on an absurd true shooting percentage that was 5.9 points above the league average. John Collins had a down year for the Atlanta Hawks, but he put up 18.5 points, 8.7 rebounds and 1.0 blocks in 30.6 minutes over four seasons from 2018-19 to 2021-22. And Kelly Olynyk, who'll likely be a reserve, is one of the game's most underrated playmaking bigs. Last season, he averaged a career-high 3.7 assists and shot 39.4 percent from three.

The real X-factor, though, is Walker Kessler. As a rookie, he finished in the 87th percentile in Dunks and Threes' defensive estimated plus-minus (EPM is one of the most trusted catch-all metrics by NBA front offices). And from the time he became a full-time starter on January 10 to the end of the season, he played 34 games and averaged 11.9 points, 10.5 rebounds and 2.9 blocks. He's already one of the league's best rim protectors.

As is the case with most of the league's bigger-name players, Ben Simmons didn't play a ton of minutes in the preseason, but his confidence appears to be back (or at least mostly back). And his pace- and playing-time-adjusted numbers back that up.

Simmons put up 10.8 assists, 10.1 points, 8.1 rebounds and 2.0 steals per 75 possessions. If he gets minutes closer to what a starter typically plays in the regular season and continues to produce like that, he could be a critical component of some of the league's most versatile lineups.

He, Mikal Bridges, Cameron Johnson, Dorian Finney-Smith and Royce O'Neale can all be plus perimeter defenders. All five could even play at the same time, giving Brooklyn tons of switchability and versatility. Plug Nic Claxton or Spencer Dinwiddie into any one of those slots, and you probably don't lose much of that either.

Without a definite superstar on the roster, Brooklyn may not have a top-four-in-the-East ceiling, but all of the above give it a higher floor than most of the teams already discussed.

Now that Quin Snyder has had a full offseason and training camp to implement his offense around Trae Young, it's hard to imagine the Atlanta Hawks leaving the top 10 in offense.

Over Snyder's last six seasons with the Jazz, Utah was sixth in points scored per 100 possessions. And over the course of Young's career, the Hawks have typically scored at a well-above-average rate when he's on the floor.

With time for those two to figure out how to work with each other, it's safe to assume the Hawks will put up a decent number of points.

Outperforming this rank and being better than the mediocre 41-41 they were in 2022-23 probably depends more on the other end. With Dejounte Murray's perimeter defense, Clint Capela's size inside and the theoretical switchability of forwards like Jalen Johnson, De'Andre Hunter and Saddiq Bey, Atlanta at least has the potential to be average on defense (even with Young in the rotation).

Given some of the offseason hype coming from outlets and media personalities all over the internet, still having the Oklahoma City Thunder in the bottom half of the power rankings might feel a little pessimistic.

But they're currently 17th in title odds from FanDuel's Sportsbook, boast just a 30.9 percent chance to make the playoffs in ESPN's projection system and have the second-youngest roster in the NBA.

There's certainly a world in which OKC makes marginal improvements and still finishes lower in the standings in a loaded Western Conference than it did last season.

But that isn't to say the optimism is unwarranted.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a top-10 to -15 player. Josh Giddey's combination of size, vision and willingness to pass makes him one of the game's most intriguing playmakers. And Jalen Williams, who was a rookie in 2022-23, averaged 18.6 points, 4.2 assists, 1.9 steals and 1.3 threes while shooting 44.0 percent from deep over his last 26 games.

Combining those three with Chet Holmgren's incoming rim protection and offensive versatility makes it easy to get excited about the Thunder's potential.

The New Orleans Pelicans' 2023-24 upside is inextricably tied to Zion Williamson's health.

Over the course of his career, New Orleans is plus-3.7 points per 100 possessions with Zion on the floor and minus-2.6 when he's off.

Last season, he played his final game on January 2. The Pelicans were third in the West by the end of that night. They finished in ninth place.

When Zion plays, defenses are bent inward by his forceful drives and cuts. Beyond his own high-efficiency, high-volume scoring, his presence makes offense easier for every other Pelican.

But it's just so difficult to have any confidence in his availability. And that's why New Orleans is stuck in the bottom half of the power rankings for now.

Anthony Edwards may have already made his star turn. After averaging 24.6 points last regular season, he went for 31.6 points, 5.2 assists, 2.0 blocks and 1.8 steals in five playoff games against the Denver Nuggets. A few months later, he quickly ascended to No. 1 option status with Team USA at the FIBA World Cup.

And yet, it still feels like Edwards may have another level to get to. Consistency at the superstar level is probably the next step. And if Edwards can produce closer to that playoff level for 65-70 regular-season games, the Minnesota Timberwolves might be a playoff lock.

Of course, there are still some wrinkles to work out (particularly the fit between Rudy Gobert and Karl-Anthony Towns), but having a top-10 player on the roster can disguise (or sometimes eliminate) a lot of weaknesses. Edwards has that kind of potential.

After a better-than-expected 2022-23 in which they finished fourth in the East and had the league's second-best net rating, the Cleveland Cavaliers were walloped by the New York Knicks in a five-game, first-round series.

And unsurprisingly, the "Donovan Mitchell to the New York Knicks" rumor that swirled throughout his last season with the Jazz resurfaced following Cleveland's early exit.

Somehow, despite the fact that this Mitchell-led core has been together for only one season, it feels like the Cavs are under an inordinate amount of pressure to perform. And playing at a level that might convince Mitchell to stick around beyond this contract may depend on the development of Evan Mobley.

Last season's two-big front with Mobley and Jarrett Allen worked brilliantly (particularly on defense) prior to the playoffs, but it fell apart in those five games against the Knicks. And it'd feel more sustainable if Mobley could add a reliable outside shot.

His passing helps open up the spacing between the two bigs, but his 23.2 career three-point percentage certainly doesn't. If he was even average from three, Cleveland would be exponentially tougher to defend and more likely to make a deep playoff run.

The analysis here could read an awful lot like the Pelicans slide.

Over Kawhi Leonard's three years with the Los Angeles Clippers, they're plus-10.2 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and minus-0.9 when he's off.

The difference, of course, is that L.A. has another top-20 to -25 player in Paul George. He's had his own struggles with availability, but the Clippers are plus-2.1 points per 100 possessions when PG plays without Kawhi.

And though a deal obviously hasn't happened yet, this team and the Philadelphia 76ers have been circling a James Harden trade for months.

There are few regular-season innings-eaters quite like Harden and Russell Westbrook (who's already in L.A.). And the offensive load those two could absorb might make playoff appearances more likely for Leonard and George.

Most of the analysis on the Dallas Mavericks for the last eight months has revolved around the pairing of Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. That's understandable, given the stature of both players and the potential overlap of their skill sets.

But NBA teams don't rise to the level of contention on the backs of just two players. Dallas' ceiling, whatever it is, may have as much to do with a largely unproven supporting cast as it does Luka and Kyrie.

Grant Williams is potentially the team's third-best player. He's never been in that role before. Dante Exum was one of the best basketball players in the world outside the NBA for the last two seasons, but his NBA numbers are almost alarming. Dereck Lively II is a rookie, and he might start at center.

The Mavs are pushing toward the top 10 based on the sheer talent of their two stars, but there are a ton of questions after that.

After having the NBA's second-best offense and destroying the Cavs in the playoffs, the New York Knicks retained most of their 2022-23 rotation.

The continuity that will provide, as well as Jalen Brunson's ongoing ascension to All-Star (or borderline All-Star) status, should have the Knicks firmly in the playoff hunt again.

But they're not exactly the same team they were last season. Quentin Grimes being a year older (and presumably better) should help. And Donte DiVincenzo will be a boost (particularly on the boards) to a guard rotation that already includes two other Villanova alums in Brunson and Josh Hart.

Even if we assume that Harden is traded or at some point told to simply stay away from the team, the Philadelphia 76ers could very well remain in the top 10.

Over the last two years, the Sixers are plus-6.5 points per 100 possessions when Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid play without Harden, a mark that isn't too far behind the plus-7.9 they post when all three are together.

And if new coach Nick Nurse knows that the crux of his offense would be a Maxey-Embiid two-man game, he might be able to design a system that extracts even more from those lineups.

The Miami Heat were one of the last two teams standing in 2022-23, but they lost two starters (Gabe Vincent and Max Strus) from that squad and famously came up short in the Damian Lillard sweepstakes.

Their largely inactive summer (with apologies to Josh Richardson, Thomas Bryant and Jaime Jaquez Jr.) and the fact that the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics both added star power is what sends Miami tumbling toward the bottom of the top 10.

But make no mistake. This is still a title contender (even if it's not quite on the top tier). Seemingly every year, Jimmy Butler transforms into a top-five player in the playoffs. Bam Adebayo is still in the "best defender in the league" conversation. And though he was the primary trade bait in the Lillard talks, there's a chance Tyler Herro improves too.

Lost in all the talk of the Blazers not wanting him is the fact that Herro is still just 23 years old. He already has a Sixth Man of the Year win, and he averaged 20.4 points and 4.1 assists while shooting 38.7 percent from deep and 89.8 percent from the free-throw line over the last two years.

For plenty of other young players, that kind of profile as a 21- and 22-year old would suggest future stardom.

From lighting the beam to De'Aaron Fox winning Clutch Player of the Year to Domantas Sabonis making an All-NBA team, the Sacramento Kings were one of the best stories in the league in 2022-23.

But hanging onto third place in the West, where they finished last season, seems like an almost impossible task.

The Nuggets are prepping for a title defense. The Memphis Grizzlies will be without Ja Morant for at least 25 games, but the addition of Marcus Smart should soften that blow. The Phoenix Suns will now have a full season with Kevin Durant, plus they added Bradley Beal. The Golden State Warriors traded for Chris Paul. And the Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers and even OKC or Minnesota could be in the mix for home-court advantage.

The conference is stacked. And while a bet on continuity made sense for a young team, there's also a chance stagnation leads to a moderate slide in the standings.

As previously noted, Morant is suspended for the first 25 games of the season. Injuries have cost him plenty of appearances over the years, too.

But the Grizzlies are built for Ja's absences, even after the departure of Tyus Jones.

Smart's numbers are comparable to Jones', and he's an upgrade on the defensive end. Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., both of whom could contend for All-Star spots this season, should be able to keep Memphis afloat without Ja.

Over the last two years, when Bane and JJJ played without Morant, the Grizzlies are plus-8.7 points per 100 possessions.

And if the team is comfortably over .500 by the time Ja returns, it should still be in the mix for a top-four finish in the West.

It's dangerous to take too much from the preseason, but CP3 averaged 8.9 assists per 75 possessions in the exhibition games entering Friday's finale. And he's looked willing and able to play the ball-and-player-movement-heavy style that the Warriors have played for years.

Draymond Green's injury has prevented us from seeing the presumed new version of the "Death Lineup" (Paul, Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andrew Wiggins and Draymond), but the way Paul has generally played is encouraging.

That group will be small and could get crushed on the boards, but it will almost certainly score at an absurd rate. And of course, it's not the only Warriors lineup that should dominate. Last season's starting five (Kevon Looney instead of CP3) was plus-22.1 points per 100 possessions in 2022-23.

The Lakers were swept in the Western Conference Finals, but the midseason transactions that helped get them there have now matured. There's more continuity between LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Austin Reaves and more recent additions like D'Angelo Russell and Rui Hachimura.

And presumably, L.A. will have a full season to integrate more newcomers (like Taurean Prince and Gabe Vincent), which would be a departure from the 2022-23 blueprint.

But ultimately, the Lakers' chances of improving over last season's finish depend on LeBron and AD. If the former can defy Father Time for another season and Davis is fully healthy in the playoffs, this team could be in the NBA's final four again.

Thanks in large part to some outrageous shooting from Devin Booker, the Suns were the only team that took more than a game off the Nuggets in a series during the 2023 postseason.

And that version of the Suns was still learning on the fly how to work with KD. He and Booker only played 364 non-garbage-time possessions together in the regular season. With the full runway of this summer and training camp, those two will work better together. And several months to integrate Beal and the rest of the new supporting cast helps too.

Even with all the star power at the top of the roster, though, Phoenix winning its first title could depend on one or two of its many minimum-contract players exceeding expectations. Whether that's Eric Gordon, Yuta Watanabe or someone else, the big names are going to need at least some help to make a deep playoff run.

The Milwaukee Bucks were second in the most recent edition of the power rankings (which published in the aftermath of the Lillard trade). This tiny slide to third is the result of two things.

First, and we'll talk more about this in a bit, is the fact that the Celtics have looked great in the preseason. Second is the fact that there's already a little drama for Milwaukee.

With less than a week to go before the regular season starts, the Bucks' top assistant stepped down from his post.

The Athletic's Shams Charania described a practice incident that involved new head coach Adrian Griffin "yelling" at Terry Stotts in front of players, but The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, in an episode of The Mismatch podcast, shared a different description. O'Connor said he was told Stotts was "cussed out."

Either way, whatever happened was enough to push Stotts out the door. And now, the Bucks are without the experienced coach who was tasked with essentially being the team's offensive coordinator.

Weeks from now, this could all look like a minor incident that quickly blew over. With Lillard and Giannis Antetokounmpo, there's certainly enough talent in place to gloss over the drama with wins. But the concern is real enough to bump Milwaukee down a spot.

Kristaps Porziņģis' fit alongside Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown couldn't have looked much better in the preseason.

His way-beyond-the-three-point-line shooting ability will force opposing bigs to chase him when he's 25-30 feet from the rim. And that will make driving lanes as wide as they've ever been for the Jays.

KP's rim protection and the wings' perimeter defense should make Boston formidable on defense too. And with the dynamic of those three supported by Derrick White, Jrue Holiday and Al Horford, Boston may have the league's best top six.

Plenty has already been said about the Nuggets' starting five that includes Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić. It just led Denver to a title and has a strong "best lineup in the NBA" case.

Locking up the repeat will mostly be about those five, but contributions from a relatively experienced crop of first- and second-year players wouldn't hurt.

With the exception of Peyton Watson, the Nuggets' front office made a conscious decision to target older rookies in each of the last two drafts. It paid off with Christian Braun last season. He was a fixture in the championship-winning playoff rotation. And this preseason, incoming rookies Julian Strawther and Hunter Tyson have both had encouraging stretches on the wing.

With the new collective bargaining agreement making it more difficult for contenders to keep expensive cores together, this relatively unusual approach to team-building could be the key to lasting success.