What's Next for the Phillies After Stunning Collapse vs. Diamondbacks in NLCS

With their many high-priced assets firing on all cylinders, the Philadelphia Phillies surged to a seemingly insurmountable 2-0 NLCS lead over the 84-win, negative-15 run differential, only made the playoffs because the Cubs imploded down the stretch Arizona Diamondbacks.

It was really just a question of whether they'd polish off the sweep in the desert or if they'd need to win another game or two in front of the biggest home-field advantage in recent MLB history.

Or so we were told.

In reality, the Phillies backed a rattlesnake into a corner, misplaced the tools necessary to finish the job and will now enter the offseason full of possibly fatal puncture wounds.

The insatiable offense that hit six home runs and scored 15 runs in those first two games of the series?

It never made it back to Philadelphia for Games 6 and 7, scoring just three runs between the two losses.

Much like Los Angeles' Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman in the NLDS against Arizona, the Phillies' two most expensive bats completely vanished when they were needed most. Trea Turner and Bryce Harper went a combined 0-for-15 in those final two games, to go along with $100 million man Nick Castellanos going hitless in his final 23 at-bats of the postseason.

And just like that, we're left with maybe the most incomprehensible World Series pairing in MLB history, as neither the Diamondbacks nor the Texas Rangers even clinched their spot in the playoff field until less than 24 hours before the end of the regular season.

But before we take these next couple of idle days before the World Series to gather thoughts and predictions on that impending showdown, it's about what now happens with the Phillies after maybe the most embarrassing playoff series collapse outside of the New York Yankees infamously blowing that 3-0 lead over the Boston Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS.

After making the World Series in 2022 and coming painstakingly close to winning another NL pennant this year, should we expect them to be back in the mix in 2024? Or is the proverbial window of opportunity already closing on them?

The gigantic free agency elephant in the clubhouse is Aaron Nola.

Nola has been the rock in this Phillies rotation since the end of their "had to rebuild for half a decade after hanging onto Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Chase Utley and Shane Victorino for too long" dark years, missing a grand total of one start dating back to 2017.

He hasn't always been great, but he has always been a key piece of the rotation, and received NL Cy Young votes in three of the last six seasons.

If they manage to keep Nola, his salary ($16M) is potentially going to double, so they'll have to make some concessions elsewhere to pay that price. Failing to retain him could come at an even steeper cost, as that would leave Taijuan Walker and Ranger Suárez battling for the No. 2 spot in the rotation behind Zack Wheeler—who, notably, only has one year left on his contract, too.

Craig Kimbrel is also a noteworthy free agent, though given his pitching in Games 3 and 4 of the NLCS, fans in Philadelphia won't be losing any sleep over that loss. Which means the Phillies will be in search of a new closer, whether that's on the roster or in free agency.

Rhys Hoskins is another big FA, but he missed this entire season with a torn ACL. Failing to re-sign him wouldn't change anything aside from applying more cement to Harper as the long-term plan at first base.

So, aside from perhaps Nola and Kimbrel, the vast majority of the nucleus will be back in 2024.

That should be a good thing, especially in the National League with the San Diego Padres trying to cut payroll and the New York Mets seeming to have already waved the white flag on next season in trading away both Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer a few months ago.

But the nucleus isn't getting any younger.

Harper, Turner, Walker and Kyle Schwarber are all entering their age-31 season. Castellanos will be 32. J.T. Realmuto will be 33 and might as well be pushing 40 given the 8,862 innings he has logged at catcher in the past nine years—most in the majors by a country mile. And Wheeler turns 34 in May.

There's no magic number when baseball players exit their primes, but any combination of those critical players could be on the verge of the back nine of their careers. Considering the Phillies didn't have much wiggle room above the cut line heading into either of these past two postseasons, any drop in production could be a game-changer.

Even with Nola, Kimbrel and Hoskins coming off the payroll, there presumably is not much room in the budget for adding to that aging nucleus.

Getting Josh Hader to bolster the bullpen would be a huge boost, as would adding a centerfielder who can hit and/or a corner outfielder who can actually field his position. But Spotrac currently has the Phillies at the highest 2024 payroll at $209 million. They've averaged about $221 million in Opening Day payroll over the past three years.

Let's just say we're not expecting them to be a legitimate contender in the Shohei Ohtani or Yoshinobu Yamamoto sweepstakes.

Even if you're not worried about a drop-off in the production of Harper, Turner, etc., and perhaps there is even an uptick in production from Turner and a fully healthy Harper, can the Phillies' nucleus reasonably expect to outlast the Atlanta Braves in October for a third consecutive year?

Because if you want to talk about teams that were darn good this year who are still loaded for 2024, Atlanta has to be at the top of that list. Ronald Acuña Jr. and Co. pretty clearly enter the offseason as the favorite to win the NL East yet again next year, which would force the Phillies to start their postseason run in the wild card round once more.

They made it work these past two postseasons, but that is a tough ask, especially if it also includes another NLDS showdown with the Braves.

By no means are the Phillies being written off as a contender in 2024. They'll almost certainly start spring training projected for another wild card spot.

But the confidence in their staying power is not as strong as it was one year ago, and we're already beginning to wonder if this team will still be in the mix for a playoff spot by 2025.

It might be 2024 World Series or Bust for the Phillies.