College Football Playoff Projections: Week 10 Rankings and Bowl Forecast

Not only is the final month of the 2023 regular season set to shape the College Football Playoff picture, 39 other bowl matchups will be settled—or at least very close to it.

As always, top-ranked programs will be battling to secure one of the four CFP berths. Five undefeated power-conference teams remain, and either Michigan or Ohio State is guaranteed to lose. But that doesn't mean we'll have a quartet of unbeatens.

Many other teams are vying for six wins and formal bowl eligibility. For many schools, it's a valuable accomplishment and should not be discounted because it doesn't include a chance for a national title.

B/R's latest round of bowl predictions starts with games between Group of Five programs and advances toward the New Year's Six.

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Michigan
4. Florida State
5. Washington
6. Oregon
7. Texas
8. Alabama
9. Oklahoma
10. Ole Miss
11. Penn State
12. Missouri
13. Louisville
14. LSU
15. Notre Dame
16. Oregon State
17. Tennessee
18. Utah
19. UCLA
20. USC
21. Kansas
22. Oklahoma State
23. Kansas State
24. Tulane
25. Air Force

Bahamas (Dec. 16): Western Kentucky vs. Eastern Michigan
New Orleans (Dec. 16): Liberty vs. James Madison
Cure (Dec. 16): Florida Atlantic vs. Louisiana
New Mexico (Dec. 16): Bowling Green vs. New Mexico State
Myrtle Beach (Dec. 18): South Florida vs. Georgia State
Frisco (Dec. 19): Rice vs. Marshall
Boca Raton (Dec. 21): Jacksonville State vs. Georgia Southern
Camellia (Dec. 23): Ohio vs. South Alabama
Famous Idaho Potato Bowl (Dec. 23): Miami (OH) vs. Wyoming
68 Ventures (Dec. 23): Central Michigan vs. Troy
Hawai'i (Dec. 23): UTSA vs. UNLV
Arizona (Dec. 30): Northern Illinois vs. Boise State

Stock Up: UTSA Roadrunners

Frank Harris returned from a toe injury at the beginning of October when UTSA held a 1-3 record. Since then, the Roadrunners have ripped off four straight wins of 14-plus points. Most importantly, those were conference games. UTSA is a major player in the AAC race and only needs one more victory to lock in bowl eligibility.

Stock Down: Marshall Thundering Herd

Marshall, on the other hand, closed September with a 4-0 mark before stumbling in October. The schedule was very difficult; the Herd played NC State, Georgia State, James Madison and Coastal Carolina. Still, they dropped each one and open November at 4-4.

LA (Dec. 16): Arizona vs. Fresno State
Gasparilla (Dec. 22): Auburn vs. Coastal Carolina
Birmingham (Dec. 23): Mississippi State vs. Tulane
Armed Forces (Dec. 23): BYU vs. Navy
Quick Lane (Dec. 26): Minnesota vs. Toledo
First Responder (Dec. 26): TCU vs. Texas State
Military (Dec. 27): Wake Forest vs. Memphis
Fenway (Dec. 28): Boston College vs. SMU

Stock Up: Boston College Eagles

It hasn't been pretty, but Boston College is finding ways to win. Look, the Eagles scraped past Virginia, Army and Connecticut—which hold a combined 5-19 record—by a total of 13 points. But a victory is all that matters, and those wins have pushed BC to 5-3. It seems likely that the Eagles will beat at least one of Syracuse, Virginia Tech or Pitt.

Stock Down: Mississippi State Bulldogs

If this was a bracketology article, you'd see Mississippi State as part of the "Last Teams In" section. Sitting at 4-4, the Bulldogs need to wrangle two victories out of a remaining slate against Kentucky, Texas A&M, Southern Miss and rival Ole Miss. Doable, yes, but not easy.

Independence (Dec. 16): Iowa State vs. Washington State
Las Vegas (Dec. 23): Iowa vs. UCLA
Guaranteed Rate (Dec. 26): Nebraska vs. West Virginia
Mayo (Dec. 27): Virginia Tech vs. Kentucky
Holiday (Dec. 27): Duke vs. Utah
Texas (Dec. 27): Kansas vs. Texas A&M
Pinstripe (Dec. 28): North Carolina State vs. Rutgers
Pop-Tarts (Dec. 28): North Carolina vs. Kansas State
Alamo (Dec. 28): Texas vs. USC

Stock Up: Rutgers Scarlet Knights

For the first time in nine seasons, Rutgers has notched six wins. Good thing it happened before November, because the Scarlet Knights might not find another one. They close the regular season with 8-0 Ohio State, 6-2 Iowa, 7-1 Penn State and 5-3 Maryland.

Stock Down: Washington State Cougars

Similar to Marshall, it's been a tale of two months for Washington State. Following a 4-0 start, the Cougs went 0-4 in October—and they weren't competitive in a couple of those losses. Wazzu must knock off two of Stanford, Cal and Colorado in the coming weeks to avoid needing a win at now-undefeated, rival Washington in the finale to reach bowl eligibility.

Gator (Dec. 29): Clemson vs. Florida
Sun (Dec. 29): Syracuse vs. Oregon State
Liberty (Dec. 29): Oklahoma State vs. Missouri
Music City (Dec. 30): Maryland vs. Tennessee
ReliaQuest (Jan. 1): Miami vs. LSU
Citrus (Jan. 1): Wisconsin vs. Ole Miss

Stock Up: Oklahoma State Cowboys

Fueled by running back Ollie Gordon II's midseason breakout, OSU has turned its season around. In short, the Pokes had a very unimpressive September. But in October, they upset both Kansas State and Kansas to spark a perfect 4-0 month. Oklahoma State is now 6-2 with a chance to shake up the Big 12 with a victory over rival Oklahoma in Week 10.

Stock Down: Clemson Tigers

Folks, this proverbial stock isn't just down—it's plunging. There's a real chance the Tigers miss the postseason. Yes, seriously. I don't expect that to happen, but you could find three losses in a final stretch opposite Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, North Carolina and South Carolina.

Cotton Bowl (Dec. 29): Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Peach Bowl (Dec. 30): Notre Dame vs. Penn State
Orange Bowl (Dec. 30): Louisville vs. Ohio State
Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 1): Air Force vs. Oregon

Stock Up: Louisville Cardinals

Who would have thought? Largely thanks to Georgia Tech's stunning upsets of both Miami and North Carolina, however, Louisville is positioned well to crash the ACC Championship Game. Technically speaking, the Cardinals are still alive in the CFP race. But there's also little shame in Louisville representing the ACC in the Orange Bowl if FSU beats the Cards for the league crown and makes a national semifinal.

Stock Down: Oklahoma Sooners

What seemed like a favorable path to the College Football Playoff took an unexpected turn in Lawrence. Oklahoma exited the list of unbeatens with a 38-33 loss at Kansas. As long as the Sooners beat rival Oklahoma State this weekend, they'll stay in good postseason shape. But that setback has eliminated OU's margin for error.

Rose Bowl (Jan. 1): Michigan (2) vs. Washington (3)
Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1): Georgia (1) vs. Florida State (4)

National Championship (Jan. 8): Georgia vs. Michigan

Hope remains for a traditional Rose Bowl in the final year before expansion alters the CFP. The upcoming changes are fine, but I won't lie and say I'm not pulling to see a little bit of historical flavor in 2023.

The more important points are that Michigan—despite the ongoing sign-stealing investigation—is really freaking good and Washington, at its peak, boasts a thrilling offense.

On paper, Florida State is the most likely CFP qualifier. That is, however, a double-edged sword because FSU's resume won't be as impressive as what UGA, Michigan or Washington can assemble. Rivalry games against Miami and Florida won't be painless, but neither one is an elite team.

Georgia faces Top 20 opponents Missouri, Ole Miss and Tennessee over the next three weeks. Michigan still has to play Penn State and Ohio State, while Washington's slate includes ranked teams USC, Utah and Oregon State—plus rival Washington State.