It has been one week since the Texas Rangers won the first World Series in franchise history and we're still waiting for the first major move of the 2023-24 MLB offseason. That's not unusual though. Baseball's offseason is a marathon, not a sprint, much like the season itself. Things -- big things -- will happen soon enough. Don't worry.
Before those big things happen, let's make some bold predictions for the hot stove season, shall we? We shall. Let's get to 'em.
1. Ohtani leaves the Angels and signs with ...
... the Dodgers. OK, so maybe this isn't exactly bold seeing how the Dodgers have long been considered the frontrunner to sign Shohei Ohtani, but I don't want to list another team here when I don't believe it. I think Ohtani is going to the Dodgers. I'll make this prediction bold by saying it will be a 13-year, $500 million contract. Ohtani turns 30 in July and 13 years is a long time for any player, but we've seen Los Angeles do this before. They gave Mookie Betts a 12-year contract at age 28 because stretching the contract out over so many years lowered the average annual value, and thus the competitive balance tax charge. Give Ohtani 10 years and $500 million, and it's a $50 million a year CBT charge. Stretch the $500 million out over 13 years and it's a more palatable $38.46 million per year. Also, like Betts, Ohtani's contract will include deferrals that lower the present day value (and thus CBT charge) even further. It has been foretold.
2. The Padres trade Soto ...
... to the Yankees. San Diego is planning to reduce payroll to $200 million next year and they don't absolutely have to trade Juan Soto to accomplish that, though shipping him out would be the most straightforward way to reduce payroll while adding multiple young (and cheap) players to the organization. The Yankees are coming off their worst season in three decades and seem poised to do something big this offseason. Soto fits their needs perfectly as a left-handed hitting outfielder with power, patience, and swagger. A package headlined by Michael King and top pitching prospect Drew Thorpe will head to San Diego and the Yankees will try like crazy to sign Soto to an extension, but he'll ultimately head out into free agency next winter after another 30-homer, .400 on-base season in 2024.
3. Yamamoto will join the other New York team
The Mets have done the "big money, short-term contract" thing with Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander the last two years to less-than-desirable results. Now it's time to spend big long-term on a prime-aged player. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, decorated ace of the Orix Buffaloes in Japan, will be posted for MLB teams this offseason and he turned only 25 in August. He's young and he has the potential to pitch at or near the front of a rotation for a long time. The Mets struck gold with Kodai Senga last offseason and Yamamoto is five years younger and more highly regarded than Senga. Given his age, the bidding war will be fierce -- the Mets will have to outbid the Dodgers and Yankees, among others -- so expect a contract in the eight-year, $220 million range.
4. The Giants finally get their star
That star: Jung-Hoo Lee, center fielder for the Kiwoom Heroes in Korea. Like Yamamoto, Lee is only 25, so whichever teams signs him will buy peak years in bulk. Lee authored a .318/.406/.455 batting line in 86 games before suffering a season-ending ankle injury this summer. Last year, he was named league MVP after hitting .349/.421/.575 with a career-high 23 homers and more than twice as many walks (66) as strikeouts (32). He's also a gifted defender. The Giants have had a hard time signing stars and Lee fits their needs so well. He can go get it in center field and his contact-over-power approach is well-suited for spacious Oracle Park. I'm going to say Lee gets a six-year, $90 million contract with an opt out after the fourth year.
5. Bellinger returns to the Cubs
Sometimes a player and a team match up so well that it makes sense to continue the relationship. Cody Bellinger had a resurgent 2023 season with the Cubs, one that should earn him MVP votes, and he will be one of the most sought after free agents as a 28-year-old impact player at an up-the-middle position. The Cubs are on the rise and they already have an excellent young center fielder in Pete Crow-Armstrong, but there's no rule against having two center field-caliber defenders on the field at the same time. Bellinger re-signs -- let's call it seven years and $180 million -- and Chicago's pitchers get to enjoy watching all their fly balls turn into outs the next few years.
6. The Cardinals land two top starters
President of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he wants three starters this offseason, though nabbing a trio of top pitchers will be difficult. I do think St. Louis will land two big name starters though, one via trade and one via free agency: Shane Bieber and Aaron Nola. Bieber comes over from the Guardians in a swap that sends Tyler O'Neill and a prospect the other way, and Nola signs a six-year, $150 million contract. That will happen after the Cardinals make a spirited run at Yamamoto, but ultimately are unable to hang with the Dodgers and Mets and Yankees in the bidding war. Bieber and Nola are a pretty nice Plan B though.
7. Votto joins his hometown team
This past weekend the Reds declined their $20 million club option for Joey Votto, a move that was entirely expected, and the team's statement made it pretty clear a) they will not pursue a reunion at a lower salary, and b) Votto does not intend to retire just yet. Votto turned 40 in September and he hasn't performed well the last two years, though he also played through shoulder trouble, including season-ending surgery in August 2022. That said, he's a hitting savant who is as good a bet as anyone to make adjustments and get on track. Votto grew up in Toronto and the Blue Jays have a clear need for a lefty hitting DH, plus they could use some good clubhouse vibes. He would provide all of that for his hometown team. One year and $1 million lands Votto back home in Toronto.
8. The Orioles spend less than $50 million on free agents
We all agree the Orioles should spend this offseason, right? They won 101 games and went to the postseason this year, and they had the second-lowest payroll in baseball. Baltimore has an enviable young (and cheap) core, though they also badly need rotation help, so they should spend, yes? Alas and alack, owner John Angeles and GM Mike Elias have shown little inclination to spend, with Angelos even saying they would have to raise prices substantially to afford extensions for their young players. The O's should spend this offseason, but I predict they will not, relatively speaking. They will spend less than $50 million on free agents. That's $50 million total, over however many years. I don't mean they will decline to add $50 million to payroll in 2024.
9. Three top starters re-sign with their team
Those starters: Sonny Gray back to the Twins, Jordan Montgomery back to the Rangers, and Eduardo Rodriguez back to the Tigers. Gray gets two years and $50 million, Montgomery gets five years and $125 million, and Rodriguez gets five years and $100 million. Gray and Rodriguez seem comfortable with their teams -- Rodriguez vetoed a trade to the Dodgers at the deadline to stay with Detroit, remember -- and will reup. As for Montgomery, World Series winners re-sign their own free agents at a disproportionate rate, though he also fits really well with what Texas needs (a reliable innings guy in a rotation heavy on injury risk). The Rangers are in it to win it again in 2024, and a reunion makes sense for both sides. This free-agent class is a bit lame and it will get a bit lamer when these three top starters decide to return to their old stomping grounds.
10. The Astros will replace Dusty with a familiar face
Brad Ausmus, you're needed back in Houston. Hall of Famer Jeff Bagwell, who is listed on the Astros' masthead as a senior advisor to ownership and baseball operations, has a loud voice in the front office. He reportedly spearheaded the effort to sign José Abreu last offseason. This offseason, I'm boldly predicting Bagwell will convince owner Jim Crane to hire longtime Astros catcher Brad Ausmus to take over as manager following Dusty Baker's retirement. Ausmus has managerial experience and he was teammates with Bagwell from 1997-98 and 2001-05. Bagwell has Crane's ear and our last bold prediction has him using his influence to get his former teammate in the manager's chair.
