The NBA's Best Surprises and Biggest Disappointments So Far

Hard as it may be to believe, the NBA season doesn't always go according to plan.

Some players and teams sprint out of the gates, looking far more dangerous than expected. Others, for a wide variety of reasons, struggle to live up to the expectations, whether lofty or more middle-of-the-pack.

But which surprises and disappointments are legitimate? Which are flukes, driven by the small sample sizes inherent to the early portion of the basketball calendar?

Appearing as a mid-November surprise is not necessarily a harbinger of seasonlong success. Nor is placement as a first-quarter disappointment a long-term condemnation of the player or team. Context, as always, is vitally important and will be brought into play liberally throughout this exercise.

Largely because they've struggled to stop everything from nosebleeds to potent opposing scorers, the Brooklyn Nets haven't converted their offensive breakouts into a winning record. But they have experienced their fair share of surges to prominence on the scoring end, as Cam Thomas and Lonnie Walker IV have buttressed an offense that was supposed to be led by Mikal Bridges.

Thomas broke out briefly in 2022-23, submitting three straight 40-point outbursts in early February amid an 11-game stretch in which he averaged 25.3 points. But he quickly fell back to earth as his playing time dwindled down the stretch before he closed the regular season with a 46-point showcase in a blowout loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.

Prior to suffering an ankle injury that should keep him out of action for a few weeks, Thomas was turning back the clocks to February even though he wasn't connecting on more than 32.1 percent of his threes. His shot-making inside the arc and ability to generate—and finish through—contact on the interior helped him average a whopping 26.9 points per contest.

As for Walker, he's excelled within his role off the bench and continued on the upward trajectory that began last season when he left the San Antonio Spurs and joined the Los Angeles Lakers for a one-year stint. His 16.8 points and 2.3 assists per game are likely unsustainable unless he starts to get more than 22.4 minutes of run per night, but he's picked the right spots to shoot and has played mistake-free basketball within the flow of the offense.

Thomas and Walker may both regress, and it's not like their impressive production has led to Brooklyn joining the class of Eastern Conference contenders. But they do improve the talent level on this roster as pleasant surprises who could be dynamic offensive producers for years to come.

Buy/sell: Enjoy the ride while it lasts.

Remember when the Cleveland Cavaliers started the season at No. 14 in Bleacher Report's power rankings? That was before they crawled their way to a 4-5 start while getting outscored by 2.2 points per game.

Donovan Mitchell has held up his end of the bargain, averaging an efficient 29.5 points, 5.1 rebounds and 5.5 assists. But the rest of the roster has been littered with disappointments, ranging from Darius Garland struggling immensely with turnovers (5.6 per game) and a disappearing three-point stroke (25.0 percent) to Evan Mobley failing to assert himself offensively to Jarrett Allen having difficulties anchoring the defense to...well, you get the point.

Cleveland has admittedly shown signs of life. The Ohio residents are excelling in transition and running frequently. They're improving as all their pieces have gotten fully healthy, and Mobley has already shown nice chemistry with offseason addition Max Strus. They haven't relied on repetitive pick-and-roll action to generate offense, even if plenty of open looks have clanked off the rim.

This likely won't remain true for too long, but the Cavs have still unquestionably been a disappointment in the early stages. Falling from ninth and first in offensive and defensive rating, respectively, to 22nd and 11th will do that, particularly when an increasingly talented and diversified roster was supposed to build upon the first-round loss to the New York Knicks.

Buy/sell: Buying the Cavaliers figuring things—and more on the "sooner" than "later" end of the spectrum.

What can't Chet Holmgren do on the basketball court?

Even if his gait sometimes looks a bit awkward, as if he's stumbling into the right plays, he always seems to make those right plays and has rarely looked like a rookie. Perhaps that's because he's one in name only after redshirting the 2022-23 campaign with an injury.

Through nine games for a competitive Oklahoma City Thunder squad, the Gonzaga product has averaged 16.2 points, 7.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists, 1.0 steals and 2.3 blocks while shooting 55.4 percent from the field, 50.0 percent on threes (3.3 attempts per game!) and 87.9 percent from the stripe.

Holmgren has run the show in the half-court set after taking the ball up the floor. His footwork inspires drooling. He's rotated effectively and used his length (7'1" with a 7'6" wingspan, which would be utterly absurd in a non-Victor Wembanyama world) on defense with aplomb. He's filled in cracks on both ends in ways that don't show up in the box score.

Concerns about the potential frailty of his 195-pound frame shouldn't yet evaporate, but this dude can flat-out play in a way most 21-year-olds can't while getting their first true taste of NBA action.

Buy/sell: Sell Holmgren winning Rookie of the Year; buy Holmgren being a yearly All-Star candidate as his game and body mature.

Remember when the Milwaukee Bucks were going to light the league on fire and run roughshod over the competition with Damian Lillard suiting up alongside Giannis Antetokounmpo, Khris Middleton and the rest of an uber-talented roster?

Well, that hasn't happened so far.

Instead, the Bucks have limped their way to a 5-4 record (and their Pythagorean wins, based on points scored and allowed, indicate they've overachieved while being outscored on the young season). A balky calf has already knocked Lillard out of action for two games, and he's struggled to find his all-world shooting stroke when he's been in the lineup. He hasn't exactly looked comfortable next to Antetokounmpo thus far, either.

The two megastars have spent 148 minutes on the court together—a far cry from the total they'll eventually post, which is an important caveat as they continue to feel one another out—and the returns have been rather disappointing. Scoring 103.6 points per 100 possessions and ceding 108.5, they've posted a distinctly negative net rating.

In all likelihood, this will be retroactively viewed as a mere blip on the radar. But disappointment has reigned supreme for anyone expecting the Lillard-aided Bucks to stampede out of the gates and emerge as an early season juggernaut.

Buy/sell: Two players this talented—and with complementary skill sets—will figure it out as they spend more time together.

Heading into the season, only the Washington Wizards (+50000), Charlotte Hornets (+50000) and Detroit Pistons (+50000) had longer odds to win the title than the Houston Rockets (+25000). But while those first three bottom-feeders have gone a combined 7-19, the Rockets, featuring an intriguing mix of high-upside youngsters and veterans expected to serve as stabilizing forces, have posted a 5-3 record.

Jalen Green, as expected, is leading the team in scoring with an efficient 20.3 points per game. Aleperen Şengün has thrived as an all-around impact player, averaging 19.0 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.1 assists while shooting 61.7 percent from the field. Dillon Brooks has provided a spark on both ends of the floor. Jabari Smith Jr. is showing more shooting consistency.

And this has all happened while Fred VanVleet has struggled to find his shot, Amen Thompson has worked through rookie jitters and Tari Eason has suited up just twice after a breakout rookie campaign in 2022-23.

Houston isn't likely to continue looking like a top-10 unit both offensively and defensively, especially because its sluggish play, while allowing head coach Ime Udoka to chase mismatches effectively, minimizes the margin for error. But the Rockets are clearly ahead of schedule and won't be an easy W on any team's calendar—not now, and not for years to come.

Buy/sell: Expect the Rockets to remain in the Western Conference postseason picture.

"Don't be surprised when Memphis is already established as a legitimate contender before Morant logs a single minute."

Citing the Memphis Grizzlies' success without Ja Morant (serving a 25-game suspension for conduct detrimental to the league) and the additions of Marcus Smart and Derrick Rose alongside Steven Adams, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr., that was my (seemingly) not-so-bold prediction back in August.

Welp. So much for that.

Bane has held up his end of the bargain, posting 26.4 points, 4.9 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game while slashing 45.8/36.4/85.7, and Jackson has done the same on the offensive end even while struggling to anchor a shockingly porous defense.

But the Grizzlies as a whole have floundered their way to a league-worst 1-8 record while ranking in the bottom half of the Association on both ends of the floor. By simple rating system (SRS), which looks at margin of victory and strength of schedule, they've been the worst team in basketball, bar none.

Maybe they really did circle the date of Morant's expected return on the calendar and then forget that the early portion of the season still counts. At least they're talented enough to snap out of the malaise at a moment's notice.

Buy/sell: Go ahead and purchase all the Grizzlies stock while they're at their lowest point.

In the early stages of the 2023-24 campaign, no offense has been more potent than the Indiana Pacers, scoring a staggering 121.5 points per 100 possessions behind net-scorching shooting performances and an utter refusal to turn the ball over.

The Pacers play at warp speed, particularly when Tyrese Haliburton is serving as the conductor and pushing the ball up the floor as fast as possible, and opponents simply haven't been able to keep up. It's not that they're thriving in transition so much as getting into their half-court sets before the defense can react and then quickly finding whatever inefficiency can be exposed.

Haliburton is averaging 23.6 points and 11.6 assists while turning the ball over just 2.6 times per contest—a minuscule figure given his intense involvement. Myles Turner is stretching the floor as well as he ever has. Bennedict Mathurin is making plenty of tough shots inside the arc while Buddy Hield provides a steady stream of triples. Even Jalen Smith, Bruce Brown Jr. and Aaron Nesmith have averaged double figures, and Obi Toppin and Andrew Nembhard are almost joining the club.

This offense has been deep, and then some, with scoring punches coming from every direction thanks to a host of players who understand their roles and are excelling within them—a staple for Rick Carlisle-coached rosters.

Buy/sell: Buying the Pacers as an offensive machine without forgetting about the putrid defense.

This was supposed to be the year.

Patrick Williams, the No. 4 overall pick of the 2020 NBA draft, is now in his fourth NBA season. He was an All-Rookie representative for the Chicago Bulls back in 2020-21. He's only 22 years old and won't celebrate his 23rd trip around the sun until the offseason doldrums. He was always billed as a high-upside all-around talent who would necessitate patience during a prolonged developmental period.

But at some point, potential must be realized. Hype must turn into actual production. And that isn't happening in the Windy City.

Williams, currently fighting through a finger injury, has averaged just 5.6 points, 3.4 rebounds and 1.3 assists while slashing—avert your eyes if you have a sensitive stomach—just 31.7/23.3/83.3. He's looked more lost on the defensive end than in previous seasons, often gambling for possession-ending plays at the expense of serving as a disciplined stopper. And after filling a starting role for the first five games of the season, he's been relegated to a second-string spot in favor of Torrey Craig, a veteran known commodity.

Williams and the Bulls failed to reach a rookie extension by the October deadline, which means he's now playing out a contract year before hitting restricted free agency next summer. So far, he's not exactly increasing his earning potential even if he claimed, per NBC Sports Chicago's K.C. Johnson, that "the game has slowed down for me a lot."

Buy/sell: Has Williams given us enough flashes to engender anything but drastically lowered expectations?

The pressure on the Philadelphia 76ers ratcheted up as the 2023-24 season approached, given both the James Harden-related drama engulfing the organization and the need to experience more postseason success after the influx of letdowns. Reminder: The Sixers haven't even made the Eastern Conference Finals since Allen Iverson and Theo Ratliff were their two leading scorers.

So far, the Sixers haven't just accepted the pressure; they've thrived under its could-be-crushing weight.

Joel Embiid is following up last year's MVP-winning efforts by averaging an efficient 31.9 points and 11.5 rebounds. Tyrese Maxey is making a full-fledged star turn as both a scorer and a primary distributor. Tobias Harris is finally playing like someone making nearly $40 million. The bench has provided high-quality depth at various positions and roles.

As a result, the Sixers have rebounded from a one-point loss to the Milwaukee Bucks in their season opener with a resounding seven-game win streak in which they've steamrolled several opponents. Only the Boston Celtics (13.3) have put together a net rating superior to Philly's sterling 11.2 mark.

Buy/sell: Buying the Sixers as a legitimate contender that can avoid the yearly postseason collapse

Scoot Henderson has only played in five games as he recovers from an ankle injury, which means we're working with an incredibly small sample here. But those early returns, limited as they've been, haven't exactly been positive for a player expected to challenge Victor Wembanyama and the rest of the first-year crop for rookie supremacy.

Guards new to the Association often struggle to find efficient shooting looks and typically rack up unnecessary turnovers as they adjust to the lightning-quick speed of defenders at the sport's highest level. Henderson, despite his obvious athletic gifts and exospheric ceiling, has been no exception.

Averaging 8.8 points and 4.6 assists through those five apearances, he's shot 34.6 percent from the field, drained just two of his 21 three-point attempts (9.5 percent) and racked up 20 turnovers to 23 assists. His minus-12.1 box plus/minus is the league's second-worst mark among players with at least five appearances to their credit, beating out only Julian Champagnie's minus-16.6 BPM for the San Antonio Spurs.

Henderson is obviously a dynamic force in the open court. He's a gifted distributor already finding advanced passing angles. But the overall returns haven't matched the hype to this point, and missing another few weeks with the ankle injury, per The Athletic's Shams Charania, will only make it harder for him to get back on track expediently.

Fortunately for Rip City, though, a five-game sample, disappointing as it may be, is just that: a five-game sample.

Buy/sell: Rookie struggles are as predictable as the sun rising, and they don't often last long for players of Henderson's caliber.

All stats, unless otherwise indicated, courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball Reference.