Bleacher Report's Expert Week 11 NFL Picks

For Week 11, NFL oddsmakers denoted the separation between playoff contenders and highly flawed teams with massive lines. Five favorites will have to win by double digits to cover point spreads. How many points are our panelists willing to lay with the league's best teams?

Bleacher Report's NFL expert panel, which includes analysts Brad Gagnon, Kris Knox, Gary Davenport, Brent Sobleski and Maurice Moton along with editors Wes O'Donnell and Ian Hanford, came to three unanimous decisions for big-time favorites in Week 11.

Our crew expects playoff-caliber squads to put away lesser opponents as the postseason picture comes into focus, but it also sided with four underdogs against the spread, two of them to win straight up.

Despite some unpredictable finishes in Week 10, our crew fared well with a hit rate of about 57 percent ATS and 71 percent SU. Check out our ATS and SU expert standings for the season with last week's results in parentheses.

ATS Standings

1. Gagnon: 85-63-2 (9-5)

2. Davenport:82-66-2 (8-6)

3. Moton: 80-68-2 (8-6)

4. Hanford 79-69-2 (8-6)

5. Knox: 76-72-2 (9-5)

6. Sobleski: 71-77-2 (8-6)

7. O'Donnell: 70-78-2 (6-8)

Consensus picks: 81-67-2 (8-6)

SU Standings

T-1. Hanford 99-51 (9-5)

T-1. Moton: 99-51 (7-7)

3. Knox: 93-57 (10-4)

T-4. Davenport: 92-58 (8-6)

T-4. Gagnon: 92-58 (9-5)

6. O'Donnell: 87-63 (6-8)

7. Sobleski: 86-64 (8-6)

Consensus picks: 85-51 (10-4)

Lines are from DraftKings as of Wednesday, Nov. 15, at 4 p.m. ET. Check the latest lines at DraftKings. Information on public betting trends is courtesy of the Action Network. ATS records are provided by Team Rankings.

DraftKings Line: Baltimore -4

Through 10 weeks, all four AFC North teams have winning records, so this game will likely have a playoff atmosphere as both teams try to keep pace.

The Cincinnati Bengals will look to avenge a Week 2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens. In that game, quarterback Joe Burrow reaggravated a calf injury, but he looks comfortable on the move now.

Sobleski looked at the injury report for both teams, and his concerns about the Bengals' defensive front helped him make the decision to side with Baltimore.

"Both the Bengals and Ravens are coming off difficult losses and desperately need rebound victories, particularly the former since Cincinnati sits at the bottom of the AFC North even with a 5-4 record. Zac Taylor's squad can't afford to lose more ground. However, injuries and the subsequent matchups should provide the difference in this contest.

"The Bengals had three key limited performers during this week's practices. Wide receiver Tee Higgins and defensive end Sam Hubbard won't play, and Trey Hendrickson is dealing with a knee issue.

"Baltimore left tackle Ronnie Stanley won't play, and cornerback Marlon Humphrey (doubtful) may not suit up either. But the Bengals may not take advantage of those key absences because one of their top receivers and both of their defensive ends aren't fully healthy. The Ravens, meanwhile, can lean on their top-ranked run game against the Bengals' 30th-ranked run defense."

Predictions

Davenport: Ravens

Gagnon: Bengals

Hanford: Bengals

Knox: Bengals

Moton: Bengals

O'Donnell: Bengals

Sobleski: Ravens

ATS Consensus: Bengals +4

SU Consensus: Ravens

Score Prediction: Ravens 28, Bengals 25

DK Line: Dallas -10.5

After a Week 7 bye, Carolina Panthers head coach Frank Reich handed over play-calling duties to offensive coordinator Thomas Brown. Since that decision, the Panthers have averaged 13.7 points in three games, scoring no more than 15 points in those contests. The According to Reich, the Panthers will collaborate on play-calling decisions going forward.

In Week 8, Carolina knocked off the Houston Texans to get its first and only win, but rookie quarterback Bryce Young has a subpar supporting cast that makes it difficult to back the Panthers to cover a double-digit spread against the second-ranked scoring team in the league.

All of our experts expect the Dallas Cowboys to run circles around a basement-dwelling team for the second consecutive week. The Panthers will likely put up a tougher fight than the New York Giants did last week, but Knox can see Dallas running away with another blowout victory.

"I can't see Dallas suffering another letdown as a double-digit favorite after its Week 3 debacle against Arizona. I also don't see Bryce Young and the Panthers getting a lot going against a Cowboys defense that ranks second in passing yards allowed and sits just a notch below the upper echelon.

"The one concern here is that the Cowboys have struggled to run consistently, and the strength of the Carolina defense has been against the pass (sixth in yards allowed). However, I get the feeling that Mike McCarthy will take any opportunity he can get to run up the score, point to the stat sheet and declare that naming himself play-caller wasn't a mistake."

Predictions

Davenport: Cowboys

Gagnon: Cowboys

Hanford: Cowboys

Knox: Cowboys

Moton: Cowboys

O'Donnell: Cowboys

Sobleski: Cowboys

ATS Consensus: Cowboys -10.5

SU Consensus: Cowboys

Score Prediction: Cowboys 35, Panthers 19

DK Line: Detroit -9

The Detroit Lions have scored 34 or more points in four out of nine games this season. They're certainly capable of blowing out bottom-tier opponents, especially teams with a leaky pass defense.

After a 41-38 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers, the Lions will host the three-win Chicago Bears, who field the 26th-ranked pass defense.

So, yes, you guessed right. Our panel unanimously picked the Lions to win by double digits. Knox understands that Bears quarterback Justin Fields' expected return (h/t NFL Network's Ian Rapoport) could change the complexion of this contest, but he doesn't think Chicago's defense can slow down Detroit's fourth-ranked passing attack.

"Fields could keep this game interesting. Ultimately, though, I think the Lions have too many playmakers in the passing game for the Bears to keep pace. Fields has taken sacks at an alarming rate as a pro (115 sacks in 33 games) and running against the Lions front (3.7 yards per carry allowed) won't be easy.

"Chicago has been great against the run over the past six weeks, but big games from Jared Goff, Sam LaPorta and Amon-Ra St. Brown should allow Detroit to run away late."

Predictions

Davenport: Lions

Gagnon: Lions

Hanford: Lions

Knox: Lions

Moton: Lions

O'Donnell: Lions

Sobleski: Lions

ATS Consensus: Lions -9

SU Consensus: Lions

Score Prediction: Lions 38, Bears 21

DK Line: Houston -4

As expected, Kyler Murray immediately injected some life into the Arizona Cardinals' season. Going forward, bettors must throw out the Cardinals' poor record. At 2-8, they will likely pull off some upsets with Murray back under center.

A couple of our experts picked Arizona to cover, but we came to a consensus in favor of Houston. Davenport acknowledged that Murray elevates the Cardinals, but he realizes the Texans may have a star quarterback in the making.

"Who knew we'd be living in a world where laying over a field goal with the Texans would be a good idea? Or that if the season ended today, the Texans would be a playoff team?" Davenport pondered.

"DeMeco Ryans has done a fantastic job in his first season as head coach, but the reason the Texans have smashed expectations is rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud, who is the AFC's leading passer, has already all but locked up Offensive Rookie of the Year honors and could have made the battle against Thanos 10 minutes long instead of two three-hour movies.

"The Cardinals may be better with Kyler Murray, but as Stroud and the Texans showed last week in Cincinnati, they are legit."

Predictions

Davenport: Texans

Gagnon: Texans

Hanford: Texans

Knox: Cardinals

Moton: Texans

O'Donnell: Cardinals

Sobleski: Texans

ATS Consensus: Texans -4

SU Consensus: Texans

Score Prediction: Texans 27, Cardinals 21

DK Line: Cleveland -2

On Wednesday, the Cleveland Browns announced that quarterback Deshaun Watson will miss the remainder of the season to undergo surgery on a broken bone in his throwing shoulder. On top of that, the Browns will start rookie fifth-rounder Dorian Thompson-Robinson over P.J. Walker against the Pittsburgh Steelers, per Bleacher Report's Jordan Schultz.

Our crew needed some time to digest all of that information in a surprising turn of events. They came to a consensus on the Steelers in a 4-3 count, but the Browns' quarterback news didn't sway Hanford away from Cleveland.

"This feels like the week where the Steelers' luck finally runs out. Pittsburgh has slogged its way to 6-3 behind an opportunistic defense and key plays in big moments on offense. The Steelers want to make the game ugly and trust themselves to play their best when the moments matter most. But the Browns can do the same thing. Cleveland has allowed under 1,400 passing yards total this season and while the Browns don't take it away as often as the Steelers do, they're strong in that department as well.

"I'd expect a low-scoring, sloppy game between two teams vying for AFC playoff seeding, and Pittsburgh finally falters against a defense that can match its own. Take the Browns to win and cover."

Predictions

Davenport: Steelers

Gagnon: Steelers

Hanford: Browns

Knox: Steelers

Moton: Steelers

O'Donnell: Browns

Sobleski: Browns

ATS Consensus: Steelers +2

SU Consensus: Browns

Score Prediction: Browns 17, Steelers 16

DK Line: Washington -9.5

At 2-8, the New York Giants can still say they beat the Washington Commanders this season. They won a low-scoring 14-7 contest in Week 7 with quarterback Tyrod Taylor in for Daniel Jones. Darren Waller, who's on injured reserve, had his most productive outing of the season against Washington.

Gagnon remembers that matchup, and he's not ready to lay all those points with the Commanders.

"The Giants have clearly fallen on hard times, but they did beat the Commanders just four weeks ago," Gagnon said. "Washington remains a losing team with a bottom-10 scoring offense that hasn't won a game by a double-digit margin since Week 18 of last season. I have little reason to believe that'll suddenly change in this divisional matchup."

This week, the Giants won't have Jones (torn ACL), Taylor (ribs) or Waller (hamstring). For Big Blue to win, Saquon Barkley has to put on a cape and take over this game, which isn't out of the realm of possibility against the Commanders' 21st-ranked run defense that's giving up 4.4 yards per carry (ranked 25th leaguewide).

Even with Barkley healthy in a favorable ground matchup, most of our panel laid the points with Washington. O'Donnell doesn't see any hope for the Giants offense as undrafted rookie quarterback Tommy DeVito prepares to start in his second game out of four appearances.

"I wrote, edited, rewrote, edited and rewrote this about as many times as the Giants have punted the ball this season, a league-high 57 times. I wanted to come up with something creative and tangible to account for the Giants beating the Commanders in Week 7 and knowledgeably explain why Washington is now favored by 9.5 points a month later.

"But let's just keep it simple: the Giants are having, pretty inarguably, the worst season of any team in the NFL. They can't score points. Their defense is untrustworthy and more often than not put in brutal positions by the 'offense'—and I have to use quotes because it's offensive to categorize what the Giants do with the ball as an offense in today's game.

"The spread could be as large as it was last week (Giants +17.5), and I'd still take the Commanders. They can't lose to this Giants team twice in the same season, and they'll cover to make sure of it."

Predictions

Davenport: Commanders

Gagnon: Giants

Hanford: Commanders

Knox: Commanders

Moton: Commanders

O'Donnell: Commanders

Sobleski: Commanders

ATS Consensus: Commanders -9.5

SU Consensus: Commanders

Score Prediction: Commanders 31, Giants 17

DK Line: Los Angeles -3

On the road, the Los Angeles Chargers must recharge after a 41-38 scoring shootout with the Detroit Lions in Week 10. They came up short in that contest, but the club will face the Green Bay Packers, who rank 21st in scoring and total yards.

With that said, Packers quarterback Jordan Love isn't afraid to push the ball downfield. He could carve up the Chargers' 32nd-ranked pass defense in a high-scoring battle.

All factors considered, most of our crew expects the Chargers to outscore the Packers to cover the spread and breathe new life into their playoff hopes.

Gagnon went against the consensus because he thinks Green Bay's defense will even the playing field at home.

"I have no strong feelings about this one because I have no trust for either team. The Packers are getting points at home, they easily beat the Rams there two weeks ago, and they have a good enough defense to hang in here, if not win it outright considering the unreliability of the Chargers. I wouldn't bet on this game, but Green Bay is still a fairly obvious choice given those circumstances."

Predictions

Davenport: Chargers

Gagnon: Packers

Hanford: Chargers

Knox: Chargers

Moton: Chargers

O'Donnell: Chargers

Sobleski: Chargers

ATS Consensus: Chargers -3

SU Consensus: Chargers

Score Prediction: Chargers 28, Packers 20

DK Line: Jacksonville -6.5

At home, the Jacksonville Jaguars took a 34-3 beatdown following their Week 9 bye, and they'll remain at EverBank Stadium for a division matchup with the Tennessee Titans, who have lost four of their previous five games, with rookie quarterback Will Levis under center for the last two defeats.

After a strong NFL debut, throwing for 238 yards and four touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8, Levis has struggled under center. Over the last two weeks, he's thrown two interceptions and zero touchdown passes.

Based on Levis' recent performances, Jacksonville should have an offensive edge with a good chance to cover a 6.5-point spread. Our crew picked the Jaguars to bounce back in a big way, but Sobleski believes the Titans have a shot to win outright.

"A lone-wolf Titans selection comes down to a combination of factors that include Trevor Lawrence, turnovers and Derrick Henry usage," Sobleski wrote.

"First, Lawrence hasn't played like a top-flight quarterback over the last month. In fact, he has thrown for 204 or fewer yards in three of his last four contests.

"More importantly, the third-year quarterback has committed four turnovers in the last two games. The Titans defense may not be as good this year as it has been in recent seasons, but the unit can capitalize on mistakes.

"Finally, Tennessee's future Hall of Fame running back loves to play the Jaguars. He has run for 100 or more yards in four straight contests against the division rival.

"If Tennessee keeps Lawrence off his game, creates a turnover or two and gets Henry rolling to take pressure off rookie quarterback Will Levis, the Titans can keep this meeting tight, if not outright win."

Predictions

Davenport: Jaguars

Gagnon: Jaguars

Hanford: Jaguars

Knox: Jaguars

Moton: Jaguars

O'Donnell: Jaguars

Sobleski: Titans

ATS Consensus: Jaguars -6.5

SU Consensus: Jaguars

Score Prediction: Jaguars 26, Titans 17

DK Line: Miami -12

After a 21-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in Germany, the Miami Dolphins had a bye week to make changes in preparation for the second half of the season. They may also welcome back sensational rookie running back De'Von Achane, who could return from injured reserve. In his first four games, he averaged a jaw-dropping 12.1 yards per carry.

Even if Achane isn't back in action, fellow running back Raheem Mostert, who's averaging 5.6 yards per carry, can pose a serious threat to the Las Vegas Raiders' 29th-ranked run defense. On top of that, wideouts Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle bring blazing speed on the perimeter.

The Raiders could hang around in this contest if they slow down the game, but Moton doesn't think they'll keep pace with the Dolphins' electric offense.

"The Dolphins had an extra week to prepare for this matchup, and the Raiders will go east for an early start. This season, Las Vegas has lost its 1 p.m. ET kickoff games by a combined score of 68-22. Chicago Bears tight end Cole Kmet and wide receiver Equanimeous St. Brown noted the Raiders' lethargic performance in Week 7.

"Perhaps the Raiders fare a lot better on the East Coast under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but the club may have to match scoring drives with the Dolphins' No. 1 scoring and total offense, which is a tough task for any team let alone one with a rookie quarterback (Aidan O'Connell) and first-time offensive play-caller (Bo Hardegree).

"The Raiders will try to turn this contest into a slugfest with Josh Jacobs on the ground, but the Dolphins will overwhelm them with their offensive firepower. Hill, Waddle, Mostert and possibly Achane (knee) will score in flurries. Miami covers by more than two touchdowns."

Predictions

Davenport: Dolphins

Gagnon: Dolphins

Hanford: Dolphins

Knox: Dolphins

Moton: Dolphins

O'Donnell: Dolphins

Sobleski: Dolphins

ATS Consensus: Dolphins -12

SU Consensus: Dolphins

Score Prediction: Dolphins 34, Raiders 20

DK Line: San Francisco -11.5

The San Francisco 49ers came out of their bye week, went on the road and blasted the Jacksonville Jaguars 34-3 on Sunday. They played arguably their most complete game against one of the AFC's best, which sends a message across the league and to bettors as they look at a double-digit spread for this matchup.

The 49ers have won five of their six games by at least 18 points, with the one-possession victory against a division rival in the Los Angeles Rams.

This isn't a game between NFC West foes, so we can toss out the familiarity factor. Most of our panel expects the 49ers to run through another opponent. Davenport hesitated a bit because of San Francisco's recent three-game losing streak, but he eventually agreed with the consensus pick.

"I vacillated some on this pick (and they said that Word of the Day toilet paper wouldn't pay for itself, although it took three tries to rinse it off well enough to get the spelling of vacillated right) because this is a lot to lay with a team that's won one of its last four games. But that one win by the Niners was a beatdown of the Jaguars in Jacksonville last week so thorough that Trevor Lawrence is still quietly weeping.

"The 49ers don't have a ton of margin for error with Seattle nipping at their heels. San Francisco edge-rusher Nick Bosa appeared to realize last week that the season has, in fact, started. And the Buccaneers have lost games against teams (Philadelphia and Detroit) that currently sport winning records by 14 points. So, somewhat reluctantly, I'll give the 11.5."

Predictions

Davenport: 49ers

Gagnon: 49ers

Hanford: 49ers

Knox: 49ers

Moton: 49ers

O'Donnell: 49ers

Sobleski: Buccaneers

ATS Consensus: 49ers -11.5

SU Consensus: 49ers

Score Prediction: 49ers 33, Buccaneers 14

DK Line: Seattle -1

Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford may return to action after he missed Week 9 because of a sprained UCL.

Rams head coach Sean McVay seems confident that he'll have Stafford under center for Sunday's game (h/t The Athletic's Jourdan Rodrigue). Moton believes that spells trouble for the Seattle Seahawks, who haven't played their best football over the past few weeks.

"Beware of a minor upset here. The Rams squashed the Seahawks 30-13 in the first week of the season without star wideout Cooper Kupp. Assuming Stafford plays on Sunday, he'll have a budding star wide receiver duo in Kupp and Puka Nacua in a matchup with Seattle's 22nd-ranked pass defense.

"Even though the Seahawks have won three of their last four games, they had sloppy performances in that stretch, turning the ball over seven times between Weeks 7 and 9. Last week, they didn't give the ball away but narrowly beat the Washington Commanders 29-26.

"As the point spread suggests, this game could go either way, but the Rams had more time to game-plan for this matchup. McVay will strategically attack a middling defense for the win and the season series sweep over Seahawks."

Predictions

Davenport: Seahawks

Gagnon: Seahawks

Hanford: Seahawks

Knox: Seahawks

Moton: Rams

O'Donnell: Seahawks

Sobleski: Rams

ATS Consensus: Seahawks -1

SU Consensus: Seahawks

Score Prediction: Seahawks 26, Rams 23

DK Line: Buffalo -7

After an embarrassing 24-22 Monday night loss to the Denver Broncos, which included a penalty for 12 players on the field on a missed field-goal attempt as time expired, the Buffalo Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey. Quarterbacks coach Joe Brady will take over play-calling duties.

Perhaps the Bills needed to rip up Dorsey's game plans. Since Week 5, they've averaged 20.5 points per game. However, someone, and perhaps it will be Brady, must hold quarterback Josh Allen accountable for his turnovers. He's thrown an interception in all but two games and leads the league in that category.

In Week 1, with quarterback Zach Wilson taking over for Aaron Rodgers four snaps into the game, the New York Jets beat the Bills 22-16 and picked off three of Allen's passes.

Now, both teams should have a high sense of urgency coming off back-to-back losses.

We sided with the Bills, who field a more explosive offense that just needs to cut down on correctable mistakes. Hanford couldn't find any reason to believe the Jets will find the end zone for the first time since Week 8 and cover the spread.

"Yes, the Bills have mostly been a disaster. Yes, Josh Allen has struggled to take care of the ball and leads the NFL with 11 interceptions. No, I'm not ready to say the Bills can't beat a Zach Wilson-led Jets team at home in what feels like as close to a must-win game as you can get in Week 11.

"Firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey may not solve all (or any) of the problems for a team that's still moving the ball as well as anyone.

"However, it should galvanize the locker room. Perhaps it refocuses Allen or just sends a general wake-up call to everyone that the playoffs are far from a guarantee. I like Buffalo to rally for at least one week and win by more than a touchdown before facing the Eagles, Chiefs, Cowboys and Chargers in its next four contests."

Predictions

Davenport: Jets

Gagnon: Bills

Hanford: Bills

Knox: Jets

Moton: Bills

O'Donnell: Bills

Sobleski: Bills

ATS Consensus: Bills -7

SU Consensus: Bills

Score Prediction: Bills 23, Jets 13

DK Line: Denver -2

The Minnesota Vikings haven't lost a game since the second week of October. Quarterback Kirk Cousins tore his Achilles in Week 8, and the Vikings acquired Joshua Dobbs before the October 31 trade deadline. The latter has kept the offense on track with his accuracy and mobility.

In two games with the Vikings, Dobbs has thrown for three touchdowns and rushed for a couple of scores. This week, he may get star wide receiver Justin Jefferson (hamstring) back in action, which would significantly boost Minnesota's aerial attack.

Meanwhile, Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton has helped quarterback Russell Wilson play with efficiency as a complement to a strong ground attack. Denver has averaged 134.8 rushing yards over its previous five outings, and Wilson has thrown for 12 touchdowns and just two interceptions in his last six games.

Regardless of Jefferson's status, Moton likes the Vikings to extend their winning streak to six games with the help of an unheralded running back.

"Bettors shouldn't hinge their wagers on Jefferson's availability," Moton said. "The Vikings are 5-0 without him this season. Tight end T.J. Hockenson and rookie wideout Jordan Addison have filled a major void in the passing game.

"Moreover, the Vikings have racked up 271 rushing yards and three touchdowns over the last two weeks. Minnesota will give Denver a huge dose of its ground attack with Ty Chandler and perhaps Myles Gaskin, who's on the practice squad, if Alexander Mattison doesn't clear concussion protocol.

"Without a doubt, the Broncos have improved since they lost 70-20 to the Miami Dolphins in Week 3, but they've been unable to fix their 32nd-ranked run defense. Dobbs and Chandler may rack up 150-plus rushing yards combined in a victory."

Predictions

Davenport: Vikings

Gagnon: Vikings

Hanford: Broncos

Knox: Vikings

Moton: Vikings

O'Donnell: Broncos

Sobleski: Vikings

ATS Consensus: Vikings +2

SU Consensus: Vikings

Score Prediction: Vikings 27, Broncos 23

DK Line: Kansas City -2.5

In the marquee matchup of the week, the Kansas City Chiefs will host the Philadelphia Eagles for a Super Bowl 57 rematch. Both teams are well-rested coming off a bye.

The Eagles have covered games at a higher rate than the Chiefs this season (71.4 percent compared to 66.7 percent).

Our experts came to a consensus in favor of the Eagles because they field a top-three scoring offense that's also fifth in total yards, but O'Donnell believes the Chiefs will win and cover with their second-ranked scoring defense that's allowed the fourth-fewest yards.

"Usually, in situations like this, I'd take the points and say a team like the Eagles can have this one outright, and the Chiefs will avenge the loss should they meet again, which in this case would be a Super Bowl rematch. The usually potent KC offense has left something to be desired, only scoring 30 or more points twice so far this season.

"But the Chiefs are coming off a bye week after a win over the Dolphins in Germany. They sport one of the league's best defenses and a head coach up against his former team. If there ever was a time to rise to the occasion in the regular season, even though it's a nonconference showdown, this is it. Chiefs take enough of a lead to cover late, and the defense holds on in the final drive to seal the win."

Predictions

Davenport: Eagles

Gagnon: Chiefs

Hanford: Eagles

Knox: Eagles

Moton: Eagles

O'Donnell: Chiefs

Sobleski: Eagles

ATS Consensus: Eagles +2.5

SU Consensus: Eagles

Score Prediction: Eagles 28, Chiefs 26

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