Buy or Sell Early-Season NBA Awards Favorites (Plus Best Sleeper Bets)

The 2023-24 NBA season isn't even a quarter of the way complete. Any idea how all of the award races will pan out yet?

Oddsmakers have an early hunch. And they might be spot-on with some of them.

Let's dig into the early favorites in each award race and buy or sell their chances to hold off the competition. We'll also spotlight our top sleeper bet on the board.

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook.

Favorite: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder (+470)

The youth-laden Thunder have rocketed up the standings while flashing both the urgency and poise of a championship-chasing team full of veterans. They opened eyes last season with a 40-win effort, but this level of dominance is entirely different—and seems totally sustainable.

Oklahoma City is surging along on a 53-win pace and owns the best net rating in the West (plus-7.6 points per 100 possessions, third overall). The Thunder are also one of only four teams with a top-10 ranking in both offensive and defensive efficiency (they're seventh in both).

Talent has plenty do to with this success, but Daigneault, last season's runner-up for this honor, deserves plenty of credit for helping this team fast-track its ascension. He has a complete buy-in from his locker room, and Oklahoma City's execution has been top-notch on both ends.

Verdict: Sell. Daigneault has been phenomenal, but this award often goes to the coach whose team exceeded expectations by the greatest degree. While the Thunder are certainly ahead of schedule, their ascension was easier to foresee than the Orlando Magic's 12-5 start or the Minnesota Timberwolves' climb to the top of the Western Conference.

Sleeper: Nick Nurse, Philadelphia 76ers (+1000)

James Harden's delayed exit from Philadelphia could've thrown the Sixers' season off-course, but they've stockpiled wins like doomsday supplies instead. Nurse, who won this award in 2019-20, has empowered rising star Tyrese Maxey (more on him later), helped reigning MVP Joel Embiid level up his playmaking and deftly integrated the new players who arrived in the Harden deal.

Favorite: Tim Hardaway Jr., Dallas Mavericks (+300)

Quick-strike scoring guards have typically dominated this award, and Tim Hardaway Jr. fits that mold perfectly. He's a fire-baller from three—he's hitting a career-high 3.4 triples per game on 38.4 percent shooting—who can shred nets on the move or off the dribble.

In terms of traditional stats, he's the highest-scoring sub (16.8 points per game) among players with more than five appearances off the bench. He's already dropped 20-plus points four different times, and he only cleared 30 minutes in one of those contests.

He also might be the secret ingredient to making the Mavericks' offense unstoppable. While Dallas has managed a ho-hum 112.8 points per 100 possessions with Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving on the floor while Hardaway is off it, that number skyrockets to an absurd 131.5 when all three play together, per Cleaning the Glass.

Verdict: Sell. Hardaway has already started cooling off (12.2 points on 36.1/33.3/80.0 shooting over his last five outings), and he isn't an overwhelming favorite to begin with. Even with his hot start, he's still barely ahead of Immanuel Quickley and Austin Reaves, who both hold +380 odds.

Sleeper: Cole Anthony, Orlando Magic (+2600)

Anthony, the sixth-highest scorer among regular reserves (15 points per game), is effectively the third offensive option for the third-seeded Magic. He's also tops on the team in free throws (4.2), third in assists (3.7) and tied for fourth in three-pointers (1.4).

Favorite: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks (+270)

While Lillard's transition to the Bucks has been a bit bumpier than expected, at least Dame Time is ticking right along.

He's been outrageously effective in late-game situations, even by his lofty standards. His 65 clutch points are 14 more than anyone else has tallied and the same number supplied by the rest of this Milwaukee roster combined. Lillard has posted a pristine 51.7/43.8/96.6 slash line with six assists and no turnovers in clutch situations (the final five minutes of any game with a scoring margin of five points or less).

"Down the stretch—five minutes, six minutes (left), you're gonna see me take control and take advantage of that because those are my moments," Lillard told reporters.

Verdict: Buy. Lillard's numbers speak for themselves, but in case you need them to speak louder, here's another: Milwaukee was 13th in clutch net rating last season at plus-2.8; now, it's easily first at plus-39.6.

Sleeper: Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana Pacers (+1900)

If Haliburton even looks at the basket late in a game, he's getting a bucket. His clutch shooting is just shy of perfection so far, as he's netted 12-of-16 field goals, 5-of-6 three-pointers and all 10 of his free throws. He's also dished out a league-leading 11 clutch assists.

Favorite: Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers (+100)

The leap from good-to-great is supposed to be the hardest to make in the NBA, yet Maxey has managed to make it look easy. Whether he's full-throttle motoring toward the basket, splashing from long distance or dropping dimes like a clumsy cashier, he's routinely staying a step (or three) ahead of the defense.

He'd never previously been a co-star, nor a primary playmaker, nor a super-high volume three-point shooter, but he keeps accepting new assignments and immediately acing them. He has come into his own as an offensive engine—he's averaging 26.6 points on 46.0/40.3/89.5 shooting with 6.9 assists against 1.4 turnovers—while building chemistry with Embiid (plus-9.2 net rating) and handling this season's heaviest workload (38.4 minutes).

Maxey has already ascended to stardom, and given that he's 23 years old and new to such a prominent role, he could climb all the way to superstardom. The Sixers, who are second in net rating, are right in the thick of the championship race, and Maxey, who's fifth in win shares, is a massive reason why.

Verdict: Buy. Maxey has some stiff competition from players like Alperen Şengün (+550) and Tyrese Haliburton (+3500), but if he keeps playing at an All-NBA level, this is his award to lose.

Sleeper: Cam Thomas, Brooklyn Nets (+2100)

If voters are drawn to huge scoring jumps, Thomas' will probably be the biggest. Part of that is simply because he was averaging twice as many minutes (16.6 to 32.4) this season compared to last before he hurt his ankle, but that doesn't tell the whole tale of his soaring output (10.6 points per game to 26.9). Switching over to per-36-minutes stats, he's still authoring a significant jump from 22.9 to 29.9.

Favorite: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves (+400)

Hall of Famers Dikembe Mutombo and Ben Wallace are the only players who've ever won the NBA's Defensive Player of the Year award four times. Gobert has a chance to join that uber-exclusive club.

The three-time winner has helped spearhead Minnesota's rise from 10th in defensive efficiency last season to first this year. This season's fourth-best shot-blocker (2.3 per game) and 11th-best defensive rebounder (7.8) has shaved 6.4 percentage points off his opponents' normal shooting rates. He's also been comically stingy at the rim, allowing a tiny 49.5 percent success rate—the only sub-50 mark among the 21 players who've defended 100-plus attempts.

Gobert leads the league in defensive win shares, is tied for 24th in defensive box plus/minus and ranks in the 89th percentile for defensive estimated defensive plus/minus, per Dunks & Threes.

Verdict: Sell. Gobert absolutely could win it, but he hasn't built a big enough lead to take him over the field.

Sleeper: Dillon Brooks, Houston Rockets (+12000)

Don't be fooled by the long-shot odds, folks. Brooks is a legitimate candidate to capture this hardware. He's made a massive impact on the Rockets' launch from 29th to fourth in defensive efficiency, and he might be the league's best perimeter isolation defender.

Favorite: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder (-145)

While it's too early to call this race, it's not too soon to call it a two-player race between Holmgren and Victor Wembanyama (-110). The freshman with the next-best odds is do-everything-but-shoot Detroit Pistons swingman Ausar Thompson at +10000.

Wembanyama has mostly lived up to his supersized expectations (19.2 points, 9.5 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game), but Holmgren is the favorite for a reason. His counting categories are comparable to Wembanyama's (17.9 points, 8.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game), but he's been way more efficient (53.8/43.1/87.0 slash to Wembanyama's 43.0/27.5/82.4). Holmgren's contributions have also helped prop up the Thunder into contention, while Wembanyama is essentially playing no-stakes ball on the lottery-bound Spurs.

Now, you could easily argue Holmgren has enjoyed a better development situation, since he's actually spent a year in the league already—he missed all of last season with a foot injury—and has way more help around him. However, being able to explain why he's off to a better start doesn't change the fact he's played better ball to this point.

Verdict: Buy. It's tough putting anything past Wembanyama, and the gap is far from insurmountable, but everything Holmgren and the Thunder are doing seems sustainable.

Sleeper: Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat (+12000)

Let's be honest: Betting on anyone other than Holmgren or Wembanyama is merely making a donation to your sportsbook of choice. If you were forced to throw a dart, though, you could do a lot worse than Jaquez. He's already a rotation regular for a Heat team with high-end expectations, a 52.2/39.3/82.4 shooter and the sixth-most productive rookie in points (11.3) and assists (2.6).

Favorite: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets (+200)

NBA stars are out in full force this season, but Jokić is once again (arguably) shining the brightest. You can find absurd stat lines all across the league, but his are their own kind of ridiculous.

Between some depth issues and the absence of Jamal Murray, Denver has had to lean on Jokić's scoring more, and he's responded with a career-best 28.8 points on an efficient 56.8 percent shooting. He's averaging a league-leading 13.4 rebounds, plus the fifth-most assists (8.9). If the campaign closed today, he'd have the highest player efficiency rating in NBA history (33.7) while also pacing the Association in box plus/minus (15.0), win shares (3.7) and win shares per 48 minutes (.311).

His numbers are all-caps ELITE, and his game is incredibly easy on the eyes. It's hard to make an analytically based argument for anyone else that would trump his.

Verdict: Sell. If forced to pick a single player at this point, Jokić would get the nod, but the competition—especially from Luka Dončić, Joel Embiid, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jayson Tatum—is stiff enough to favor the field.

Sleeper: Anthony Edwards, Minnesota Timberwolves (+2600)

Edwards has his fingerprints all over Minnesota's scorching start, and he's forcing his way into the best-two-way-player debates. Every aspect of his game feels more consistent and more impactful than ever before. If the Wolves can grab a top-three seed in the West, he could easily be among the three finalists for this award.

Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Nov. 28.

Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.