Padres trade Juan Soto to Yankees: How he bolsters New York’s lineup, why San Diego moved on

By Dennis Lin, Brendan Kuty and Chris Kirschner

NASHVILLE, Tenn. — Sixteen months after they reeled in perhaps the biggest trade-deadline acquisition ever, the San Diego Padres unwound that historic deal Wednesday trading star slugger Juan Soto and outfielder Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees in exchange for pitchers Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Jhony Brito, Randy Vásquez and catcher Kyle Higashioka.

The blockbuster swap comes amid a critical offseason for the Yankees, who are trying to rebound from what general manager Brian Cashman labeled “a disaster” of a season, and the Padres, who are downsizing their still-robust payroll following their own tumultuous summer and the death of owner Peter Seidler. Soto could soon command a record-setting salary in his final season of arbitration, and the Scott Boras client is widely expected to enter free agency next winter as a 26-year-old. Yet, with impact bats in short supply, the outfielder loomed as the biggest available domino besides Shohei Ohtani as the Winter Meetings opened this week.

Only a few teams appeared to possess both the appetite and the wherewithal to surrender significant capital for what will likely be a one-year rental.

Soto Season. pic.twitter.com/lt8TFPZgGk

— New York Yankees (@Yankees) December 7, 2023

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What Soto brings to New York

Acquiring Soto changes the entire complexion of the Yankees’ outlook heading into 2024. The Yankees’ offense was miserable this season. They finished 25th in runs scored and 24th in OPS and by wRC+, it was one of the five worst offenses the Yankees have had since 2000. But landing Soto should immediately catapult the Yankees into having a premier lineup.

What makes Soto so dangerous at the plate is his lack of flaws. He routinely ranks near the top of all leaderboards in quality of contact. Since his rookie season in 2018, Soto has never finished below the 90th percentile in xwOBA, which is considered the best predictive statistic of future success. His 55.3 percent hard-hit rate in 2023 ranked in the 99th percentile. His eye at the plate may be his best skill. Soto hasn’t finished below the 98th percentile in chase rate for the past four years, and he’s already led MLB in walks in three out of his six seasons.

The knock on Soto is he’s one of the worst defenders in the sport. He possesses limited range in left field and a below-average arm. Given Yankee Stadium’s bigger dimensions in left field, it may make sense for Soto to play right field, newly acquired outfielder Alex Verdugo, a 2023 Gold Glove finalist, in left field and Aaron Judge in center field. Yankees manager Aaron Boone said Wednesday that he’d be more than comfortable having Judge, who turns 32 in April, patrol the middle of the outfield. That does present some risk for the Yankees with Judge coming off a toe injury and center field being more demanding than right field.

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But for the Yankees, it’s a problem they’ll live with because Soto’s bat makes him a generational talent that the Bronx Bombers desperately need in their pursuit of the team’s first World Series title since 2009.

Why San Diego moved on

The Padres, for their part, failed to fully leverage a transcendent hitter. San Diego shook the industry when it acquired Soto from the Washington Nationals on Aug. 1, 2022. Recognizing that an eventual contract extension could be a long shot, the Padres mortgaged a sizable chunk of their future by forking over prized young players James Wood, CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Robert Hassell III and Jarlin Susana. And they reveled in the return: rental slugger Josh Bell and Soto, who could power the Padres in three pennant races, if not more.

Soto wound up factoring into only one such pursuit. Soon after his arrival, he helped the Padres to the franchise’s first National League Championship Series since 1998. After a slow start to 2023, he emerged as advertised, finishing with a career-high 35 home runs and leading the league in walks. But the Padres played sub-.500 baseball for most of what became the most disappointing season in franchise history. Their faint hopes of sneaking into the playoffs were extinguished in late September.

That outcome exacerbated the financial issues of a mid-market team carrying a $258 million payroll and closer to $1 billion in future contract commitments. Seidler’s passing last month seemingly reinforced the immediate direction of the franchise. With the Padres starved for pitching and expected to open next season with a payroll of roughly $200 million, trade talks involving Soto picked up as the Winter Meetings approached.

“We understand the value of Juan playing for us next year on a contract year,” Padres president of baseball operations A.J. Preller said last month. “We think our position player team is very strong. We’d like to keep that position player team together. We also understand that we want to add some pitching to the group that we already have.”

The return for Soto and Grisham features both quantity and at least moderate upside. King logged a 1.88 ERA in an eight-start run to end 2023; proven as a reliever, the 28-year-old will be given the opportunity to be a mid-rotation starter for the Padres. Thorpe, 23, was a 2022 second-round draft pick who has risen quickly, leading the minor leagues last season with 182 strikeouts (and a 2.52 ERA) between the High-A and Double-A levels. Brito and Vásquez, both 25, showed promise as big-league rookies who can either start or relieve.

Higashioka, a 33-year-old nearing his final season before agency, is a veteran catcher who can back up expected primary starter Luis Campusano. Among the newcomers, only King and Higashioka are arbitration-eligible. MLB Trade Rumors projects a $2.6 million salary for King, and a $2.3 million salary for Higashioka. Grisham, meanwhile, could make about $4.9 million. With Soto in line to earn around $33 million, the Padres could now re-devote those funds to acquiring more pitching depth and outfield replacements. And they could pursue further flexibility by exploring potential trades of Jake Cronenworth. The infielder’s seven-year, $80 million extension, which begins in 2024, includes a partial, eight-team no-trade clause.

But replacing Soto’s production in 2024 could be next to impossible. Soto has long represented the game’s premier blend of youth, power and patience in a left-handed hitter. He made his big-league debut as a teenager with Washington in May 2018, later placing second in the National League Rookie of the Year voting. His sophomore campaign saw him earn NL MVP consideration for both his regular-season output and his World Series performance; Soto hit .333 with three home runs during the Nationals’ six-game triumph over the Houston Astros. More regular-season MVP votes followed in 2020 and 2021.

The 2022 season altered the course of multiple franchises. A rebuilding Nationals team offered to extend Soto for 15 years and what would have been a record-breaking guarantee of $440 million. But the $29 million average annual value proved insufficient. Soto and Boras quickly rejected the proposal, prompting the Nationals to trade Soto to San Diego weeks later.

Now, Soto is closer to free agency than ever. The Padres never got close to extending the outfielder, prompting them to begin discussing him with other teams as early as this past summer. The Yankees, too, are under no illusions: It will be difficult, if not impossible, to convince Soto to bypass free agency. Boras, who has typically steered his clients to the open market, could seek a $500 million deal.

And he might aim quite a bit higher. A uniquely gifted player who has thrived in the spotlight from an early age, Soto will be motivated to have a career year in a contract year. The Yankees are betting on it.

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(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)