It has been roughly six weeks since the Texas Rangers were crowned 2023 World Series champions and baseball's competitive landscape has changed a lot in that time, though perhaps not as much as in a typical offseason. Last week's Winter Meetings were relatively low-key, and you can count on one hand the number of high-profile free agents who have changed teams.
Fortunately, the offseason is far from over. There is plenty of time for free agents to find new teams and trade partners to come together and work out deals. With that in mind, here's where the hot stove stands in the wake of Winter Meetings.
Biggest moves so far
In all likelihood the offseason's biggest trade and biggest free agent signing have already taken place. The Yankees landed Juan Soto in a seven-player trade with the Padres last week, then the Dodgers signed Shohei Ohtani to a record 10-year contract worth $700 million over the weekend. Because of heavy deferrals, it won't actually be $700 million, but still, that's a lot of millions.
Here are the other notable moves we've seen so far this offseason:
- The Yankees also picked up Alex Verdugo in a trade with the rival Red Sox.
- The NL champion Diamondbacks added lefty Eduardo Rodriguez on a four-year contract.
- The Phillies retained stalwart righty Aaron Nola with a seven-year contract.
- The Braves have been active, notably adding Aaron Bummer and Jarred Kelenic in trades.
- The Cardinals added Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson, and Lance Lynn to their rotation.
That is not a full accounting of the offseason, of course, but those have been the highest-impact moves to date. This list figures to grow considerably in the next two weeks or so, particularly as free agents hustle to get themselves new contracts before the holidays. With Ohtani and Soto now off the board, the trade and free agent markets should really begin to move.
Best available free agents
Only eight of our top 50 free agents have signed, including only three of the top 10, led of course by No. 1 Ohtani. This isn't the greatest free-agent class we've ever seen, so it's not too surprising the market has moved slow. Here are our 10 best unsigned free agents:
- RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto
- 1B/CF Cody Bellinger
- 3B Matt Chapman
- LHP Blake Snell
- RHP Marcus Stroman
- RHP Lucas Giolito
- LHP Jordan Montgomery
- CF Kevin Kiermaier
- 1B Rhys Hoskins
- LHP Josh Hader
Yamamoto will begin in-person meetings with MLB teams this week and is expected to make a decision within two weeks or so, though there really is no rush. His 45-day posting window does not close until Jan 4.
Things have been very quiet around Bellinger, Chapman, Snell, and really every non-Yamamoto player listed above. Teams that missed out on Ohtani and Soto figure to turn their attention to Bellinger, and teams that miss out on Yamamoto will have little choice but to engage Snell, Stroman, et al to address their pitching needs.
There are bargains to be had in free agency this offseason, always are, but best of luck finding them. This class has a way of making Bs look like As and Cs look like Bs, if you catch my drift.
Top remaining trade candidates
Soto was, clearly, the best player available on the trade market. That is especially true with the Angels pulling Mike Trout off the trade block, not that a Trout trade ever seemed all that likely. Rather than rank the best remaining trade candidates, we'll drop them into buckets. Here they are:
- Rental starters: RHP Shane Bieber (Guardians), RHP Corbin Burnes (Brewers), RHP Tyler Glasnow (Rays)
- Controllable starters: RHP Dylan Cease (White Sox), RHP Bryce Miller (Mariners), RHP Bryan Woo (Mariners)
- Bullpen arms: RHP Emmanuel Clase (Guardians), RHP Hunter Harvey (Nationals), RHP Gregory Santos (White Sox)
- Bat-first infielders: SS Willy Adames (Brewers), 2B Jonathan India (Reds), 3B Isaac Paredes (Rays), 2B/3B Jorge Polanco (Twins)
- Outfield mashers: OF Randy Arozarena (Rays), OF Max Kepler (Twins), OF Harold Ramírez (Rays)
- Positionless sluggers: DH Eloy Jiménez (White Sox), UTIL Christopher Morel (Cubs)
- Reclamation projects: OF Dylan Carlson (Cardinals), RHP Alek Manoah (Blue Jays)
A lot of Rays players, no doubt, but that is the nature of the beast. They acquire players, get 2-3 good seasons out of them, then flip them for younger players once they get expensive through arbitration. Arozarena and Paredes are at that point now, and Glasnow is owed $25 million in 2024. That would make him the highest paid Rays player ever.
At this point I would say Cease is the top prize on the trade market. He has ace ability -- we saw it in 2022 -- and he has another two years of team control remaining. Bieber, Burnes, and Glasnow will all be free agents next offseason. They're all very good, obviously, though that extra year of control makes Cease the more desirable player.
The trade market is much more fluid than the free-agent market. The list of free agents is what it is. Players can unexpectedly land on the trade block at any time though. Who's to say that the Mets won't seriously shop Pete Alonso if it becomes clear an extension won't happen? Count on one or two players surprisingly popping up in trade rumors in the coming weeks.
Top storylines
Ohtani's free agency and how the Yankees would react to their worst season in three decades were the two biggest storylines coming into the offseason, and now we have our answers. There is still lots more to be sorted out in the two months between now and spring training. Here are the top remaining storylines this offseason.
The Yamamoto sweepstakes. Yamamoto is, quite clearly, the most desirable player still available this offseason. The erstwhile Orix Buffaloes ace has yet to throw an MLB pitch, but he is only 25 and he has the talent to pitch at or near the front of a big league rotation. All the big-market contenders are expected to meet with him this week and it is increasingly likely Yamamoto will secure a $300 million contract. Here's why he would be a good investment.
Other international stars. Yamamoto is not the only high-profile international player making the jump to MLB this offseason. Japanese left-hander Shota Imanaga and Korean center fielder Jung-Hoo Lee figure to command contracts that will pay them eight figures annually, particularly the 25-year-old Lee. Cuban righty Yariel Rodriguez, Japanese lefty reliever Yuki Matsui and righty starter Naoyuki Uwasawa, and Korean closer Woo-Suk Go are not as highly regarded, but are available and can help a big league team.
Who gets left out in the game of pitching musical chairs? The demand for pitching greatly outweighs the supply this offseason. There simply aren't enough starters to go around. Only one team can sign Yamamoto -- the Dodgers and Yankees are seen as the two frontrunners even after landing Ohtani and Soto, respectively -- and there aren't many bona fide No. 1-2 types available. Several teams are looking for multiple starters this offseason and gosh, that will be a tall order. Gibson and Lynn aren't the sexiest names, but the Cardinals were smart to act early to get the pitching they needed.
Where do the Blue Jays go now? The Blue Jays tried hard for Ohtani and the obvious backup plan would have been Soto. Now neither is available. Bellinger would be a fine fit given Toronto's needs for a left-handed hitting center fielder, though they have yet to be connected to him this offseason, and it's unclear how heavily they're willing to invest in a non-Ohtani free agent this winter. This began as a very promising offseason for the Blue Jays. Now they're trying to salvage things.
The Cubs, Giants, Mets, and Red Sox. Boston essentially swapped out Verdugo for Tyler O'Neill, and the Mets added Luis Severino, otherwise it has been a quiet offseason for four clubs that kind of need to have great offseasons. Chicago finished a game out of a wild-card spot this year and wants to get over the hump in 2024. The Giants have fallen to tenth in the National League in attendance and are trying to shake the "they can't sign stars" label. The Red Sox have finished in last place three times in the last four seasons. The Mets want to get moving in the right direction after underperforming so badly this year that they sold at the deadline. This is an important offseason for all four teams and they haven't really gotten to work yet.
The Mariners and whatever they're doing. Not going to lie, I am a bit confused about Seattle's offseason thus far. They are clearly looking to cut down on strikeouts, hence the Eugenio Suárez and Kelenic trades, and not risking the qualifying offer with Teoscar Hernandez. They also dumped significant money in the Suárez trade and by using Kelenic to unload Marco Gonzales and Evan White. How exactly will they replace the lost offense though? And how are they going to spend the money? The Mariners missed the playoffs this year after ending the 20-year postseason drought last year. Feels like another shoe has to drop this winter, otherwise it doesn't really make sense.
Extension season. There has already been one significant extension this offseason: Brewers top prospect Jackson Chourio signed a historic $82 million deal before he even played his first MLB game. February and March are when most extensions happens. Teams use November, December, and January to improve their roster, then focus on retaining their own players in spring training. Next spring's extension candidates could include Max Fried (Braves), Justin Steele (Cubs), Kyle Tucker and Framber Valdez (Astros), and Bobby Witt Jr. (Royals), among others.
The Bally Sports situation. Diamond Sports Group, which runs the various Bally Sports regional networks, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy earlier this year, and is currently sorting through which teams it wants to keep, and which teams it wants to drop (like the D-backs and Padres this summer). The Guardians and World Series champion Rangers are said to be at risk of losing their local television deal. MLB took over Arizona and San Diego broadcasts this season, though that is a temporary solution. The financial uncertainty regarding the Bally Sports teams has already impacted the market and will continue to do so until new television deals are lined up. This is the dark cloud currently hanging over the sport.
