2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

The nonconference portion of the 2023-24 men's college basketball season was all sorts of entertaining, but now that conference play is fully underway, it feels like Selection Sunday for the NCAA tournament is just around the corner.

And while there's still a little over two months for things to change drastically, our current projected No. 1 seeds for the big dance are Purdue, Houston, Kansas and Arizona.

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

Also of note, all projected automatic bids are based on predictive metrics. Most bracketologists use conference records to make those selections, but especially at this point in the year when only a handful of league games have been played, it doesn't make much sense to use that data point when we have several better ones.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (Boston)

Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Iona/Southern
No. 8 Princeton vs. No. 9 James Madison

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 BYU vs. No. 13 McNeese State
No. 5 Auburn vs. No. 12 Indiana State

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Kentucky vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 Nevada vs. No. 11 Providence

Brooklyn, NY
No. 2 Connecticut vs. No. 15 Colgate
No. 7 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 10 Mississippi State

MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Merrimack/South Dakota State
No. 8 Cincinnati vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Baylor vs. No. 12 Ohio State/Oregon

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Weber State
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Wake Forest

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 Tennessee vs. No. 15 Drexel
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 Northwestern

SOUTH REGION (Dallas)

Memphis, TN
No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Lipscomb
No. 8 South Carolina vs. No. 9 St. John's

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Samford
No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Seton Hall/Nebraska

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Memphis vs. No. 14 Liberty
No. 6 San Diego State vs. No. 11 Colorado

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 High Point
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Ole Miss

WEST REGION (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Norfolk State
No. 8 Grand Canyon vs. No. 9 Miami

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. No. 13 Fort Wayne
No. 5 Creighton vs. No. 12 Kansas State

Omaha, NE
No. 3 Marquette vs. No. 14 UC Irvine
No. 6 Utah State vs. No. 11 Gonzaga

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 Alabama vs. No. 10 Texas Tech

Fifth-to-Last In: Providence Friars (11-4, NET: 57, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 44.0)—Suffered three losses this week: Seton Hall, Creighton, Bryce Hopkins.

Fourth-to-Last In: Kansas State Wildcats (11-3, NET: 79, RES: 45.0, QUAL: 55.5)—Perpetually on the bubble, destroyed UCF to open conference play.

Third-to-Last In: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-3, NET: 44, RES: 50.0, QUAL: 36.0)—Lost to Indiana; just one win over top two Quadrants.

Second-to-Last In: Seton Hall Pirates (10-5, NET: 73, RES: 48.5, QUAL: 74.5)—Metrics not there yet, but can't overlook three Q1 wins.

Last Team In: Nebraska Cornhuskers (12-3, NET: 59, RES: 38.5, QUAL: 60.0)—Split with Indiana and Wisconsin to remain just barely in.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Michigan State Spartans (9-6, NET: 28, RES: 63.0, QUAL: 19.0)—Six total losses and only one Q1 win? Do better.

Second Team Out: New Mexico Lobos (12-2, NET: 35, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 49.5)—Simply cannot award at-large spot to 0-2 record vs. Q1/Q2.

Third Team Out: Iowa State Cyclones (11-3, NET: 12, RES: 77.0, QUAL: 11.5)—Fantastic predictive metrics, but nothing close to a quality win.

Fourth Team Out: Virginia Cavaliers (11-4, NET: 55, RES: 60.0, QUAL: 51.0)—Suffered fourth blowout loss, haven't looked good in a month.

Fifth Team Out: Florida Gators (10-4, NET: 49, RES: 59.0, QUAL: 33.0)—Huge missed opportunity vs. Kentucky, needs to add quality wins.

1. Purdue Boilermakers (14-1, NET: 2, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 2.0)

2. Houston Cougars (14-0, NET: 1, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 1.0)

3. Kansas Jayhawks (12-1, NET: 11, RES: 3.0, QUAL: 16.5)

4. Arizona Wildcats (12-3, NET: 3, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 3.0)

5. Connecticut Huskies (13-2, NET: 7, RES: 8.5, QUAL: 8.5)

After suffering a bad, 18-point loss at Stanford on New Year's Eve, we booted Arizona down to No. 6 on the overall seed list.

But after absolutely demolishing Colorado and Utah by a combined margin of 66 points this week, the Wildcats ascend back to the No. 1 seed line.

It's not that Connecticut did anything wrong to lose its grip on the final No. 1 seed, crushing DePaul and picking up a solid road win over Butler. It's that the Wildcats are now top-four in every metric and 4-1 against the top half of Quad 1—compared to UConn's 1-1 record in those games.

Now, if both teams were to win all of their remaining games, there's really no question the Huskies would eventually overtake the Wildcats again. Based on NET rankings as of Sunday morning, Connecticut has eight Quad 1 games remaining to Arizona's four—and one of Arizona's four (at NET No. 72 Washington State) just barely qualifies.

As things currently stand, though, Arizona has the superior resume.

As far as the top three goes, Purdue further improved an already unimpeachable case for the No. 1 overall seed with its Friday night victory over Illinois, and Houston backed up its great metrics with a 34-point victory over West Virginia in its first game in the Big 12. Very clearly the No. 1 overall and No. 2 overall seeds right now.

Kansas got quite the scare (and quite the assist from the refs) in its Big 12 opener against TCU, but the Jayhawks ultimately survived. Neither NET nor the predictive metrics paint Kansas as a No. 1 seed right now, but neutral-site wins over Tennessee and Kentucky, a home win over Connecticut and just the one neutral-site loss to Marquette is good enough to overcome those double-digit rankings.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 7. North Carolina, 15. Clemson, 17. Duke, 36. Miami, 41. Wake Forest

Also Considered: Virginia, NC State, Syracuse

Biggest Change: North Carolina surges to the No. 2 seed line

Up until this week, the big thing lacking from North Carolina's resume was quality wins away from home.

The Tar Heels incredibly dropped 100 points on Tennessee, but that was at the Dean Dome. They convincingly handed Oklahoma its only loss of the season, but that game in Charlotte was the furthest thing from a neutral venue. And that win over Arkansas in the third-place game of the Battle 4 Atlantis isn't carrying much water with the Razorbacks nowhere close to the projected field right now.

But after a 13-point win at Pitt and a 10-point win at Clemson, UNC suddenly has one of the best resumes in the nation. The Tar Heels now have three wins against the top half of Quad 1—joining Purdue, Arizona, Kansas and Marquette as the only teams with that many—and nary a loss outside of Quad 1.

Now it's time to tread water in a weak ACC, as their next game against a projected single-digit seed won't come until the home game against Duke on Feb. 3.

Wake Forest joining the projected field as a No. 11 seed after wins over Boston College and Miami in the past week was also a noteworthy development. The Demon Deacons didn't do much in nonconference play, but at top-50 in all the metrics with a 4-3 record against the top two Quadrants and no bad losses, they've done enough to get in with even a little room to spare.

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Houston, 3. Kansas, 13. Oklahoma, 16. BYU, 18. Baylor, 32. Cincinnati, 40. Texas Tech, 45. Kansas State

Also Considered: Iowa State, Texas, TCU

Biggest Change: Three Big 12 teams move into the field, and three Big 12 teams drop out

With nine teams in the top 40 of the NET, Big 12 play will be loaded with opportunities for quality wins.

But for as good as the league appears to be, there sure were a lot of Big 12 teams that entered Saturday's conference opener having done a whole lot of nothing.

Cincinnati, Texas and TCU had a combined zero wins against Quads 1 and 2, while Texas Tech (Michigan on a neutral floor) and Iowa State (vs. Iowa) each had just one bottom-half-of-Quad 2 victory.

As a result, those five teams entered the weekend in a precarious position.

Cincinnati's win over BYU Saturday night was ginormous. The Bearcats were our first team out one week ago, but when you go on the road and beat a NET top-5 team by double digits, your resume starts looking a whole lot prettier in a hurry. They vault into the field as a No. 8 seed, and even that might be a bit too conservative. Let's see if they can back it up this week against Texas and Baylor.

Texas Tech also jumps into the projected bracket after a road win over Texas, while Kansas State slips back in after destroying UCF.

On the flip side of that coin, both TCU and Texas drop from "Last Five In" to "wake us when you beat someone." Also, Iowa State plummets from a No. 10 seed to First Five Out following its loss at Oklahoma. It wasn't a bad loss and the Cyclones are still top 20 in each of NET, BPI and KenPom, but with a horrific nonconference SOS and no quality wins, they now need to prove they deserve to be in the field.

7 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. Connecticut, 9. Marquette, 20. Creighton, 25. Villanova, 34. St. John's, 43. Providence, 48. Seton Hall

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: Huge week for the "old Big East"

DePaul and Georgetown are still very much bringing up the rear in the Big East, but it was a fun week for fans who still remember the good ol' days when St. John's and Seton Hall were contenders on a regular basis.

Neither was in our projected field one week ago, but they each picked up two big wins this week to (red) storm into the mix.

St. John's first blew out Butler by 16 in what was a "winner gets a spot in a play-in game" type of bubble affair, and then really pushed its way into the field with a 10-point road win over Villanova—even without starting forward Chris Ledlum (ankle), who is averaging 11.0 PPG and 8.0 RPG. That was, by far, the Red Storm's biggest win of the season, and their fifth victory over the top two Quadrants.

Meanwhile, Seton Hall picked up a pair of massive wins over Providence (road) and Marquette (home). In nonconference play, the Pirates had zero Quad 1 wins, zero Quad 2 wins and just one Quad 3 win, defeating Missouri on a neutral floor. But after also opening their Big East slate with a win over Connecticut, they now have three solidly Quad 1 wins, which is impossible to leave out of the projected field at this point in the year.

No rest for the weary, though. The next five games on the St. John's schedule are all against projected tournament teams, and Seton Hall needs to avoid picking up a loss at Georgetown or at Butler before playing four straight against St. John's, Creighton, Providence and Marquette.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 8. Wisconsin, 14. Illinois, 39. Northwestern, 46. Ohio State, 49. Nebraska

Also Considered: Michigan State, Indiana

Biggest Change: Ohio State takes a tumble

The Buckeyes dropped three seed lines onto the heart of the bubble, but it's not so much because they had a bad week. In a vacuum, winning a home game against Rutgers and losing a road game to Indiana isn't terrible.

But there were two reasons for the plummet.

No. 1 is that so many teams who weren't all that far behind the Buckeyes had much better weeks, resulting in quite a bit of leapfrogging. Such is life in the first week of January when the likes of Cincinnati, Texas Tech, Wake Forest, Utah State and St. John's finally get the quality win (or two) that had eluded their grasp up until now.

The second reason is that Ohio State having just one win against the top two Quadrants now stands out like a sore thumb when almost every other projected at-large team has at least two such wins.

The only other team seeded 49th or better without multiple Q1/Q2 victories is Cincinnati, and the Bearcats got what is to this point literally the best resume win in the entire country at NET No. 4 BYU and did not suffer losses anywhere near as questionable as OSU's mishaps at Indiana and Penn State.

Ohio State's neutral-site win over Alabama looks fantastic on paper. But with the Crimson Tide only projected for a No. 7 seed and with no other wins worth pointing to on the Buckeyes' schedule, they've got some work to do. They very likely need to win the home game against Wisconsin this Wednesday in order to make it into our next projection.

4 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Arizona, 26. Utah, 42. Colorado, 47. Oregon

Also Considered: Arizona State

Biggest Change: Oregon jumps in, but could this be a one-bid league???

It was a big week for the Oregon Ducks, who went on the road for narrow victories over both Washington and Washington State to improve to 12-3. The resume is still very much lacking, as they lost to Alabama in their only game thus far against a projected tournament team. But those two Quad 1 wins helped them gain quite a bit of ground while so many teams previously in the Nos. 9-12 seed range suffered losses.

While Oregon sneaks into the field, though, both Utah and Colorado slid around 10 spots in the wrong direction after each got swept at Arizona and Arizona State.

Utah still has a solid resume with a great-looking win over BYU and three total Quad 1 victories, but Colorado is on the bubble with losses to Florida State and Arizona State and only one particularly good win over Miami.

For now, the Pac-12 is a four-bid league. But after the Utes and Buffaloes got chopped down this week, a one-bid league is still within the realm of possibility, as there are way more potential bad losses than potential big wins to be found.

Case in point: In the next seven days, Utah faces UCLA and Stanford, Colorado draws Cal and USC and Oregon's lone game is against Cal. Anything short of a 5-0 combined record would be bad news.

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 6. Tennessee, 11. Kentucky, 19. Auburn, 28. Alabama, 31. South Carolina, 33. Texas A&M, 37. Ole Miss, 38. Mississippi State

Also Considered: Florida, Georgia

Biggest Change: Mississippi schools both lose first Q1 game

Ole Miss entered SEC play with a perfect 13-0 record, while Mississippi State was sitting pretty at 11-2.

Both teams were in the Nos. 7-8 seed range, though quite unproven.

The Rebels had a nice home win over Memphis, but that is barely a top-half-of-Quadrant 2 victory as far as the NET is concerned. Same goes for the Bulldogs' two best wins over North Texas and Washington State on neutral floors.

At long last, they both got Quad 1 opportunities on Saturday...and both blew them.

At least Mississippi State put up a fight at South Carolina, but it couldn't overcome Meechie Johnson's 24 points in a low-scoring, 68-62 affair. Ole Miss, on the other hand, simply got destroyed at Tennessee, losing by 26 in a game that got out of hand in a hurry.

The Rebels now have a most unusual resume, ranked 67th in NET and 85th in QUAL with no Quad 1 wins, but 13th in RES with just the one loss against a title contender. Mississippi State has much more normal metrics (NET: 32, RES: 47, QUAL: 30.5), but is 0-1 vs. Quad 1 with a Quad 4 loss to Southern and a not great loss at Georgia Tech.

They both enter the week projected for a No. 10 seed with a combined four home games on tap. Ole Miss will host Florida and Vanderbilt in a pair of games it probably needs to win. Mississippi State gets Tennessee and Alabama at home, where a split would help and a sweep would be gigantic.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 10. Memphis, 12. Dayton, 21. Utah State, 22. Colorado State, 23. San Diego State, 24. Nevada, 27. Florida Atlantic, 44. Gonzaga, 50. Indiana State

Also Considered: New Mexico, Saint Joseph's, Boise State, George Mason

Biggest Change: Dayton flies to a No. 3 seed

Dayton's NCAA tournament resume is preposterously good, and we need more people talking about it.

In the metrics, the Flyers are 20th in NET, 5.0 in RES and 33.0 in QUAL.

They have three Quad 1 wins, two of which—the neutral-site victories over Cincinnati and St. John's—look a whole lot better today than they did one week ago. The other, at SMU, was a top-half-of-Quad 1 result on Sunday morning.

Neither of Dayton's losses was remotely bad, either. No shame whatsoever in falling to Houston on a neutral floor, and a hard-fought road loss to Northwestern simply means the Flyers have something in common with projected No. 1 overall seed Purdue.

Hanging on to this projected No. 3 seed will be tough, as there are only a couple of borderline Quad 1 wins to be found in the A-10. As such, it would only take one or two losses in the next two months for the Flyers to slide down to around the No. 9 seed range, simply because of the number of quality wins that power conference teams will be stockpiling.

Then again, that was also true in 2020, when the Flyers ran the table in league play and were in great shape for a No. 1 seed before the tournament got canceled.

After opening A-10 play with solid victories over Davidson and Massachusetts, maybe they could do it again? If they do, look for DaRon Holmes II to get quite a bit of first-team All-American love, like Obi Toppin did four years ago.

21 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 29. Grand Canyon, 30. Princeton, 35. James Madison, 51. McNeese State, 52. Samford, 53. Fort Wayne, 54. Akron, 55. UC Irvine, 56. Liberty, 57. Weber State, 58. Vermont, 59. High Point, 60. Morehead State, 61. Colgate, 62. Drexel, 63. Lipscomb, 64. Norfolk State, 65. Southern, 66. Iona, 67. South Dakota State, 68. Merrimack

Biggest Change: Down goes James Madison

At some point in Sun Belt Conference play, it was always likely that James Madison would suffer at least one loss.

But to have that first loss come against Southern Miss in early January was brutal for the Dukes.

At the time, it was a Quad 4 loss. The Golden Eagles did get bumped up 31 spots in the NET for the victory, turning it into a Quad 3 loss for JMU. Give it time, though, and it likely settles back to a Quad 4 result by the end of the year.

The good news is that James Madison's season-opening win at Michigan State has gone from great to meh to great again, as the Spartans have emphatically rebounded from their miserable nine-game start.

Beyond that fantastic win, though, there's neither much on the resume nor much opportunity to improve it. Sweeping Appalachian State (NET: 91) between now and the end of January would be big, but everything else on the schedule is either Q3 or Q4 and almost certain to stay there.

The loss to Southern Miss drops JMU from a No. 7 seed to a No. 9 seed. Win out from here, and maybe the Dukes climb back up into the No. 6 seed range, like 2011-12 Murray State when it went 30-1. But it's a fair estimate that each loss from this point forward drops them another seed line—maybe more if it's a Q4 loss.