Ranking the Super Bowl LVIII Long Shots in the 2024 NFL Playoffs
The road to Super Bowl LVIII has already been filled with twists and turns. In a year filled with major quarterback injuries, there have been few dominant teams.
The San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens were the most consistent throughout the season and will enjoy a bye as 12 teams battle during Wild Card Weekend.
It's not always the best team that wins the Super Bowl, though. It's the hottest.
The latest odds at DraftKings Sportsbook give only five teams +1000 odds or shorter to win the Super Bowl. That leaves nine that are considered long shots at +1800 or worse.
Are any of these teams are worth your attention as a legitimate Super Bowl contender? Here, we'll rank them by their playoff upside, recent form and potential path to the Super Bowl.
EPA per Play over the last five weeks from RBSDM.com.
Super Bowl Odds: +12000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 23rd
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 7th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 3-2
The Steelers needed a lot to go right just to get in the playoff field. The Jacksonville Jaguars botched an easy path to qualify in Week 18 against the Tennessee Titans, who were one game away from firing head coach Mike Vrabel and getting a top-10 pick in the draft.
Pittsburgh had to beat a Baltimore Ravens team that was resting most of its key starters and still wound up needing a 71-yard connection from Mason Rudolph to Diontae Johnson to secure the lead in a 17-10 win.
The Steelers' offense has been a mess most of the season, although they have found some spark since switching to Rudolph at quarterback. They've already announced that they'll be sticking with the veteran backup instead of going back to Week 1 starter Kenny Pickett.
Even if the offense continues to play reasonably well, the defense has taken a big hit. Star edge-rusher T.J. Watt has been ruled out of the team's wild-card matchup against the Buffalo Bills with a knee injury.
Watt is one of the premier defensive talents in the league. Without him, it's going to be difficult for the Steelers to contain Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, much less make a run to the Super Bowl.
Super Bowl Odds: +9000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 5th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 23rd
Last 5 Weeks Record: 3-2
The way quarterback Jordan Love is playing right now makes it hard to rank the Packers this low. He has come into his own over the second half of the season, and elite quarterback play means a lot in the postseason.
The Packers had to win in Weeks 17 and 18 just to get in the playoffs. Love responded by throwing for 572 yards and five touchdowns with no interceptions and a 78.5 percent completion rate.
However, it's also worth noting that those games were against the Minnesota Vikings and Chicgao Bears, both of whom missed the playoffs. The Vikings gave up the seventh-highest passer rating to opposing quarterbacks this season, and the Bears were without star cornerback Jaylon Johnson and were already eliminated from playoff contention.
The competition won't exactly be the same when Love has to travel to Dallas this weekend to face the Cowboys. Dan Quinn's defense is ranked sixth in passer rating allowed and presents a different level of challenge.
The main problem for the Packers is the defense, though. Dak Prescott has been every bit as impressive as Love this season, and he's the more experienced playoff quarterback. That's bad news for a Packers defense that's given up a passer rating of 94.7 on the year.
Even if Love can keep the Packers afloat in a shootout, the Cowboys still have a huge advantage going against a Packers secondary that just can't be trusted.
Super Bowl Odds: +6000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 12th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 18th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 4-1
There's no denying that the Tampa Bay Buccaneers finished the season strong to capture the NFC South. It was one of the league's weakest divisions this season, but winning five out of their last six games to clinch the division shows they are peaking at the right time.
That, combined with a head-to-head win over Green Bay and a home wild-card matchup, is why they earn the seventh spot in these rankings.
Baker Mayfield has run hot and cold throughout his NFL career. This season, he's been a lot more good than bad. With wideouts Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at his disposal, Mayfield has had some big games, including a perfect passer rating at Lambeau Field to beat the Packers.
The Bucs don't just have a good shot at upsetting the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday because they are at home either. Todd Bowles' defense is a schematic problem for quarterback Jalen Hurts and the Eagles. Hurts has struggled against the blitz all season, and Tampa Bay is third in blitz rate this season.
The problem with ranking the Buccaneers much higher than this is their path to the Super Bowl. If the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys each win their wild-card games, the Bucs would be headed to San Francisco in the divisional round.
One upset is asking a lot of this team. Asking for more would be a miracle.
Super Bowl Odds: +5000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 15th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 14th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 3-2
DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud have been shocking people all year. Why stop with the regular season?
The Texans have been competent on defense all season under Ryans' watch, and Stroud has elevated the offense throughout the year. The difference was clear when he missed Weeks 15 and 16 because of a concussion.
Much like Jordan Love, Stroud did a lot to earn respect around the league this season. The rookie threw for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns to five interceptions while going 9-6 as the starter in the 15 games he played.
He was named the AFC Player of the Week in Week 18 after showcasing some clutch skills in a win over the Indianapolis Colts to secure the AFC South. He went 20-of-26 for 264 yards with two touchdowns and no interceptions in the 23-19 victory.
Unlike the Packers, the Texans have enough defense to have a shot in a shootout. Defensive ends Jonathan Greenard, Will Anderson Jr. and Jerry Hughes missed practice Tuesday and Wednesday with various ailments, but defensive tackles Maliek Collins and Sheldon Rankins returned to limited practice Wednesday after sitting out Tuesday.
The defensive front is getting healthy just in time for a chance to pull off some upsets.
The Texans still belong in the long-shots club, but a healthy Stroud with a decent defense give them some upset potential.
Super Bowl Odds: +1800
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 7th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 29th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 1-4
The Eagles are tied for the best odds of any Super Bowl long shot, but it's hard to see them returning to the big game given how bad they have been recently. The defense has struggled throughout the season, and it has only gotten worse in recent weeks.
The Eagles' 1-4 record over the past five weeks is the worst of any playoff team during that stretch. The one win was a 33-25 home victory over a hapless New York Giants team that was starting Tyrod Taylor at quarterback.
The Eagles haven't beaten a winning team in November. So, why are they ranked ahead of the teams behind them? Ceiling.
Despite their recent swoon, the Eagles still came one game away from winning the NFC East. At one point, they were 10-1 and looked like one of the best teams in the league.
If the Eagels can dig deep and find the version of the team that beat Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins this season, they stand a chance against anyone.
The Eagles' recent form has been terrible. They might not even beat Tampa Bay in the Wild Card Round. But if they catch fire, they still have a lot of the pieces that won the NFC last season.
It's still a long shot, but if there's a team with the talent to turn things around and go on a run, it's the Eagles.
Super Bowl Odds: +3000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 28th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 1st
Last 5 Weeks Record: 4-1
If the phrase "defense wins championships" has any merit, then the Browns have a shot at the Lombardi Trophy.
The Browns have weathered a maelstrom of injuries this season, but they made the playoffs anyway. They've started five quarterbacks this season but have found success with the most unlikely candidate—a 38-year-old Joe Flacco who is chucking it deep with surprisingly positive results.
Flacco hasn't started a playoff game since 2014, but he was named the MVP of Super Bowl XLVII after guiding the Baltimore Ravens to a 34-31 win over the San Francisco 49ers.
He isn't just handing it off and managing the game, either. Flacco has the third-highest intended air yards per attempt in the league, per Next Gen Stats. He's 4-1 in five starts this season.
While Flacco is a huge story, the Browns defense is what carried this team to the No. 5 seed in the AFC. They have been one of the best units in the league this season, and that form has continued throughout the past few weeks.
Anchored by Myles Garrett, the Browns have one of the best pass rushes in the league, ranking sixth in sacks and seventh in pressure percentage. They also have an aggressive secondary that has snatched 18 interceptions.
The Browns' ability to create mayhem on defense while taking big shots on offense make them a high-variability team that could do some damage in the postseason.
Super Bowl Odds: +1800
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 4th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 15th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 2-3
Much like the Eagles, the Dolphins are ranked this high out of respect for what they've done over the totality of the season. At one point, they were in the running for the AFC's No. 1 seed.
The last five games have not been kind to them, as they lost to the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills over that span. That pushed them down to the AFC's No. 6 seed, putting them in a position where they have to beat the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs on the road on Saturday.
Even if they pull off that upset, their next game would likely be against a Ravens team that just trounced them 56-19 in Week 17. It's among the most difficult paths to the Super Bowl in the playoffs.
However, the Dolphins offense should give them a shot against anyone. Their EPA per play over the last five games has remained elite despite wide receiver Jaylen Waddle missing the final two games and most of the game against the Dallas Cowboys.
Waddle, fellow wideout Tyreek Hill and running backs Raheem Mostert and De'Von Achane were all listed as limited on the Dolphins' injury report on Wednesday. If all four can play, the Dolphins will have a chance to knock off the reigning Super Bowl champions.
Unfortunately, the burden has become heavier on the offense as the season has progressed. Season-ending injuries for linebackers Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb are tough to ignore for a defense that has been mostly average without them.
Super Bowl Odds: +4000
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 9th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 20th
Last 5 Weeks Record: 4-1
The winner of the Rams-Lions game is a long-shot team to watch.
Let's start with Sean McVay's squad in Los Angeles. The Rams have longer odds than some of the other teams featured here, but they come in at No. 2 on the strength of how well they have played recently and how their road to the Super Bowl would play out.
For one, the Rams have won seven of their last eight games. The only loss was a 37-31 overtime shootout against the Baltimore Ravens, the No. 1 seed over in the AFC and a potential Super Bowl opponent.
Matthew Stafford is playing just as well as he did when he guided the Rams to the Super Bowl two years ago. He has a nearly identical QBR (63.7) this season as he did that year (63.8).
Stafford and the Rams draw a dangerous Lions team on Sunday, but the Lions are inexperienced in the postseason. The Rams veterans can still easily remember their Super Bowl run, while the Lions haven't made the playoffs since 2016.
If the Rams beat the Lions, they would likely draw the 49ers in the divisional round. While no team wants to face San Francisco, the Rams held their own against them in a 30-23 loss in Week 2. McVay and Kyle Shanahan are very familiar with one another, which could make the divisional matchup more uncomfortable for the No. 1 seed.
An upset over the Niners would make the Rams a scary team with a lot of confidence going into the NFC title game.
Super Bowl Odds: +1800
Last 5 Weeks Offensive EPA: 8th
Last 5 Weeks Defensive EPA: 21st
Last 5 Weeks Record: 3-2
The Lions don't have a lot of playoff experience. Barry Sanders led them in rushing the last time they won a playoff game (a 38-6 win over the Dallas Cowboys in 1992).
Coincidentally, that's who the Lions would match up with again if they beat the Rams in the Wild Card Round.
The biggest thing the Lions have going for them is an offense with a strong identity. They are one of the better rushing teams in the league, averaging 4.6 yards per carry and leaning on David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs to pace the offense. Jared Goff brings playoff experience and is perfectly suited to take advantage of the Lions' play-action-heavy offense.
The Lions' potential road to the Super Bowl is another reason why they're atop this list. Their matchup against the Rams could be tricky, but if they get past that, it would guarantee a rematch against the Cowboys.
They lost a 20-19 nail-biter to Dallas just two weeks ago, in part because of a controversial call that negated a successful two-point conversion. They've already proven that the margin between them and the Cowboys isn't huge.
The Lions probably aren't getting the respect they deserve from oddsmakers because of their lack of playoff success as a franchise, but they've been one of the NFL's most potent teams all season.
If Aidan Hutchinson and the defense can elevate their game, the Lions are a worthy contender.
