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USATSI

It was December of 2014 when I was admitted into the Baseball Writers Association of America. As far as Hall of Fame voting is concerned, that means my 10-year waiting period is nearly lapsed. Next year at this time, it won't be a hypothetical ballot when I make the big reveal. It'll be the real thing. As a kid who saw the actual Baseball Hall of Fame and who daydreamed about one day getting a vote for decades, I'm sure it'll bring a tear to my eye to see the official ballot for the first time. 

In the here and now, however, I'm continuing my lifelong study and preparation. I've always been studying in a way, but the preparation part comes in the form of me going through the exercise as if I'm a voter. That means when I get the actual ballot, I'll already have had years of practice while muscle memory guides through the process. 

There's always housekeeping to be done right off the top, as it shapes the ballot of each voter. 

The big thing that still hangs over us with these votes is the PED issue. My stance remains that if a player never tested positive with a suspension from Major League Baseball, he's judged as if there are no black marks on his resume on that front. That means past players like Sammy Sosa and Mark McGwire would've gotten my vote while Rafael Palmeiro would not have. Some people respect this line I've chosen to draw and others hate it. That's fine. We all have to make that choice and this is mine. 

The Astros' sign-stealing scandal (and Red Sox, though it seems to have been presented to us by MLB as a lesser offense) also clouds matters, but I've viewed it differently with individual players. A team-level operation to achieve team-level success just feels less disqualifying to me than a player selfishly using PEDs to achieve individual success. Again, mileage will vary and that's fine. I've written about the character clause and my issues with it before and I imagine next year as an actual voter I'll need to have a bigger discussion about it. 

Now, this is very important, so please don't gloss over this. Just because I am voting for a player doesn't mean I necessarily think he should definitely get in. It might sound outlandish if you don't think it through, but there's a good reason for this. Every voter only has a maximum of 10 spots and there are some voters who will leave ballots blank or vote for just one or two players. Players need 75% of the vote to get in. I don't feel like I'm the decision-maker as much as part of a voting body that is collectively deciding on the players' fates, which means if a player is close, I definitely don't want to be one of the reasons he's deprived of making it unless I feel very strongly he doesn't deserve it. And remember, for every blank spot next to a player's name, he'd need three checkmarks just to stay right at the 75% threshold. 

In turn, I'll go through the players I definitely think should be in and if there are spots left before I reach the maximum of 10, I'll go in order of how strongly I feel about my next tier of players (Scott Rolen and Larry Walker, for example, started as maybes for me and I'm fine with them having gotten in). The last two players on this ballot fall under this category. 

Let's get to it. As noted, I'll start with the easy and obvious. 

Alex Rodríguez and Manny Ramírez would be easy and obvious yes answers, but both were suspended for PEDs by MLB. They don't get my vote. If A-Rod ever got within striking distance, I might reconsider my stance due to MLB's seeming witch hunt to catch him, but sitting in the mid-30s in voting percentage means I'm not too worried about it now (nor do I think he ever gets close enough for it to matter, frankly). 

Adrián Beltré is an easy and obvious yes. Carlos Beltrán was long an easy and obvious yes for me and only the sign-stealing thing threatened it. As noted above, I'm at peace with saying yes.

It's not as easy and obvious, but I also think Joe Mauer is an easy check for me. 

Gary Sheffield and Andruw Jones should both already be in and they are yes votes. 

Closing is a specialization, so I understand the argument that failed starters shouldn't be given as much run as actual starting pitchers, but I still think Billy Wagner was so elite at closing that he merits inclusion. He's in. 

I'm not quite as strong on Todd Helton as some others, but I'm on board with his case. 

I wasn't fully sold until I worked through the case, but now I am in on Chase Utley. 

That's eight. 

I can now circle back to the others, a group of maybes where I don't feel strongly. This group includes: Andy Pettitte, Bobby Abreu, Jimmy Rollins, Mark Buehrle, Francisco Rodríguez, Torii Hunter and David Wright. No one else was considered. 

I took Abreu (case here) and Buehrle (case here) last year and I'll stick with them. The rest of the holdovers I passed over during last year's exercise -- with one open spot, proving that I don't feel like I have to fill all 10 -- and I've already explained the shortfall with Wright. 

Here is this year's hypothetical ballot and it's the last time I'll have to slide that "H" word in there. It's real next time around. 

  1. Adrián Beltré
  2. Carlos Beltrán
  3. Joe Mauer
  4. Gary Sheffield
  5. Andruw Jones
  6. Billy Wagner
  7. Todd Helton
  8. Chase Utley
  9. Bobby Abreu
  10. Mark Buehrle

Beltré is on track to get in this year while it's possible Mauer and/or Helton makes it (Wagner and Jones have an outside shot, too). Sheffield could also make it, but he's off the ballot regardless, since this is his 10th year. 

That means there are at least two open spots heading to next year -- probably three with as many as five. Newcomers like Ichiro Suzuki and CC Sabathia join the fray along with some other, longer shots like Félix Hernández and Dustin Pedroia. For now, these would've been my 10. 

See you next year for the real thing.