2024 Men's NCAA Tournament Bracket: Latest Projection of the Field of 68

After a week in which nobody was safe and seemingly every ranked team lost, it might feel like nobody belongs in the 2024 men's NCAA tournament right now.

But somehow, some way, the selection committee is going to put together a 68-team bracket in two months' time, for which our current projected No. 1 seeds are Purdue, Kansas, Connecticut and Arizona.

More noteworthy than the top seed line: We currently have more Mountain West teams projected to dance (six) than we have coming out of the Big Ten (five), ACC (five) or Pac-12 (three).

You'll see a lot of NET, RES and QUAL in the forthcoming analysis. NET is the NCAA Evaluation Tool, the backbone of the Quads data and the primary sorting metric the selection committee uses to select and seed the field. RES is the average ranking of the two resume metrics (KPI and SOR) and is more or less a measure of who you beat, regardless of scoring margin. QUAL is the average ranking of the two predictive metrics (BPI and KenPom) and is rooted in scoring margin and adjusted efficiencies. All three play a key role in determining the projected field.

Also of note, all projected automatic bids are based on predictive metrics. Most bracketologists use conference records to make those selections, but especially at this point in the year when only a handful of league games have been played, it doesn't make much sense to use that data point when we have several better ones.

With that out of the way, let's start with the full bracket before some brief commentary on the current state of the bubble and the top seed line. Following that, a full conference-by-conference rundown, highlighting some of the biggest changes from one week ago.

EAST REGION (Boston)

Brooklyn, NY
No. 1 Connecticut vs. No. 16 Southern
No. 8 Princeton vs. No. 9 Iowa State

Brooklyn, NY
No. 4 Auburn vs. No. 13 Gonzaga
No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 James Madison

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Dayton vs. No. 14 Vermont
No. 6 South Carolina vs. No. 11 Wake Forest

Charlotte, NC
No. 2 North Carolina vs. No. 15 Lipscomb
No. 7 Villanova vs. No. 10 Mississippi State

MIDWEST REGION (Detroit)

Indianapolis, IN
No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Iona/South Dakota State
No. 8 Florida Atlantic vs. No. 9 Nevada

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 4 Creighton vs. No. 13 UC Irvine
No. 5 Kentucky vs. No. 12 Indiana State

Charlotte, NC
No. 3 Tennessee vs. No. 14 High Point
No. 6 Colorado State vs. No. 11 Miami/TCU

Memphis, TN
No. 2 Houston vs. No. 15 Morehead State
No. 7 Utah vs. No. 10 Texas Tech

SOUTH REGION (Dallas)

Omaha, NE
No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Colgate
No. 8 St. John's vs. No. 9 Texas A&M

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Illinois vs. No. 13 Samford
No. 5 Marquette vs. No. 12 New Mexico/Kansas State

Pittsburgh, PA
No. 3 Duke vs. No. 14 Louisiana Tech
No. 6 Ole Miss vs. No. 11 Oregon

Indianapolis, IN
No. 2 Wisconsin vs. No. 15 Drexel
No. 7 Oklahoma vs. No. 10 Boise State

WEST REGION (Los Angeles)

Salt Lake City, UT
No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 16 Merrimack/Norfolk State
No. 8 Grand Canyon vs. No. 9 Seton Hall

Spokane, WA
No. 4 Clemson vs. No. 13 Akron
No. 5 Utah State vs. No. 12 McNeese State

Memphis, TN
No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 Oakland
No. 6 Alabama vs. No. 11 Nebraska

Omaha, NE
No. 2 Memphis vs. No. 15 Eastern Washington
No. 7 BYU vs. No. 10 Northwestern

1. Purdue Boilermakers (15-2, NET: 3, RES: 1.0, QUAL: 3.0)

2. Kansas Jayhawks (13-2, NET: 15, RES: 5.5, QUAL: 17.5)

3. Connecticut Huskies (14-2, NET: 10, RES: 6.0, QUAL: 9.0)

4. Arizona Wildcats (12-4, NET: 2, RES: 9.0, QUAL: 2.0)

5. North Carolina Tar Heels (13-3, NET: 7, RES: 5.0, QUAL: 7.5)

6. Wisconsin Badgers (13-3, NET: 11, RES: 4.0, QUAL: 12.0)

7. Houston Cougars (14-2, NET: 1, RES: 10.0, QUAL: 1.0)

In some seasons, the No. 1 seed line barely changes in the span of a month.

This year, it has been absolute carnage from one week to the next, and we've reached a most unusual point where I'm not even confident the No. 2 overall seed deserves a spot on the top line.

Purdue is presently the clear-cut No. 1 overall, even with the recent loss at Nebraska—in part because each of the other teams previously on our top line (Houston, Kansas and Arizona) also each suffered at least one loss this week. The Boilermakers have a 4-0 record against the top half of Quad 1. Only one other team (Arizona at 4-1) has more than three such victories.

For UConn vs. Kansas at No. 2 overall, we do have a handy-dandy head-to-head result in which the Jayhawks beat the Huskies in Lawrence. It's more than just that, though, as the Jayhawks also hold excellent neutral-site victories over both Tennessee and Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Huskies' only wins over teams comfortably in the field today were a great neutral-site win over North Carolina and a Q2 home win over St. John's. Edge: Rock Chalk.

Arizona vs. North Carolina for the final No. 1 seed is extremely tight following Arizona's loss at Washington State and UNC absolutely annihilating Syracuse.

If you like the Tar Heels at No. 4, it's likely because of Arizona's Q2 loss to Stanford. If you prefer the Wildcats, it's probably because the overall strength of their five Q1 wins is undeniably better than the overall strength of UNC's five Q1 wins. I lean toward the latter right now, and not because it prevents a possible Elite Eight scenario in which No. 2 Arizona has a drastic geographical advantage against No. 1 North Carolina in Los Angeles. In fact, I'd be more than fine with that destination for the Caleb Love Bowl.

Maybe the biggest thing to note here, though, is Houston plummeting from No. 2 overall to No. 7 overall. You rarely see a drop like that more than two months into the season, but following back-to-back losses to Iowa State and TCU, the Cougars' resume comes under more scrutiny. Neutral wins over Dayton, Utah and Texas A&M still look solid, as does the road win over Xavier. But with just four wins over the top two Quadrants, it's tough to make the No. 1 seed case for Houston right now, even though the Cougars are still No. 1 in NET, BPI and KenPom.

Fifth-to-Last In: Wake Forest Demon Deacons (12-4, NET: 46, RES: 42.5, QUAL: 33.0)—Took advantage of Virginia being downright terrible on the road.

Fourth-to-Last In: Miami Hurricanes (12-4, NET: 57, RES: 46.5, QUAL: 48.0)—Home loss to Louisville decimated what was a solid resume.

Third-to-Last In: TCU Horned Frogs (13-3, NET: 29, RES: 37.5, QUAL: 21.0)—TCU accomplished nothing before home wins over Oklahoma and Houston.

Second-to-Last In: Kansas State Wildcats (12-4, NET: 77, RES: 54.5, QUAL: 49.5)—Collapsed at TTU to remain smack dab on the bubble.

Last Team In: New Mexico Lobos (13-3, NET: 36, RES: 46.0, QUAL: 48.0)—Finally a quality win (vs. SDSU) to sneak back in.

****CUT LINE****

First Team Out: Cincinnati Bearcats (12-4, NET: 33, RES: 55.0, QUAL: 28.0)—Massive W at BYU, but what's Cincinnati's next best win? [It was vs. Eastern Washington.]

Second Team Out: Drake Bulldogs (13-3, NET: 64, RES: 47.5, QUAL: 74.5)—Back in mix following wins over Indiana State and SIU.

Third Team Out: Georgia Bulldogs (12-4, NET: 84, RES: 45.5, QUAL: 76.5)—Almost got a signature win over Tennessee; still a solid resume.

Fourth Team Out: Syracuse Orange (10-5, NET: 81, RES: 41.0, QUAL: 92.0)—Classic bubble resume: winless vs. Q1; undefeated outside of Q1.

Fifth Team Out: Washington State Cougars (12-5, NET: 52, RES: 59.0, QUAL: 65.5)—Gigantic week for the Cougs, beating USC (road) and Arizona.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 5. North Carolina, 12. Duke, 15. Clemson, 43. Wake Forest, 44. Miami

Also Considered: Syracuse, Virginia Tech, NC State

Biggest Change: Miami plummets but salvages a projected bid

It's one thing to go on the road in conference play and take a loss against a decent team not quite in the mix for an at-large bid. Kansas wasn't particularly penalized for losing at UCF, nor was Arizona for its loss at Washington State. These things just happen, especially in the first half of January.

But losing at home to Louisville, which had not won a road game in more than two full calendar years?

What the hell are you doing, Miami?

Even worse than the boolean result, Miami was at full strength, Louisville was down a starter (Tre White) and the Hurricanes were outscored 35-17 over the final 15 minutes.

Absolutely unfathomable, and it temporarily knocked the Hurricanes out of the projected field. [It wasn't for an article that published, but I put together an updated seed list Thursday afternoon and had the Hurricanes as my fifth team out.]

Winning at Virginia Tech Saturday night provided quite the defibrillator jolt to this resume, but the net impact from the week as a whole was definitely a negative for the 'Canes. They drop from a projected No. 9 seed last Tuesday to a play-in game today.

Also of note in the ACC, Virginia has completely exited the conversation here, not even a full month removed from being projected at No. 13 overall. The Cavaliers have lost their past four road games (Memphis, Notre Dame, NC State and Wake Forest) by a combined margin of 80 points, woefully unable to run anything resembling offense outside of John Paul Jones Arena. The overall resume is still decent, but they sure look dead.

9 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 2. Kansas, 7. Houston, 10. Baylor, 25. Oklahoma, 26. BYU, 36. Iowa State, 37. Texas Tech, 45. TCU, 46. Kansas State

Also Considered: Cincinnati, Texas

Biggest Change: TCU finally has a decent resume

One week ago, TCU was not even really in the conversation.

We had the Horned Frogs listed as a team "Also Considered," but only because they were top-30 on both KenPom and BPI, despite an 0-3 record against the top two Quadrants.

Basically, I didn't feel comfortable deleting them from the spreadsheet, but I also didn't legitimately consider them.

Following home wins over Oklahoma and Houston, though, the Horned Frogs are at least bringing something beyond just nice predictive metrics to the table now.

Eventually, they're going to need some road wins, and preferably better road wins than at Oklahoma State (Jan. 23) and at West Virginia (March 6). Though, if they win those two and go a perfect 9-0 at home in league play, that would be more than enough for a bid, considering they'd be 11-7 in the nation's best conference with several great home wins and nothing close to a bad loss.

But a win at Cincinnati on Tuesday night would be huge, if for no other reason than to remain ahead of the Bearcats on the overall seed list.

Should TCU win at Cincinnati and win the home game against Iowa State this coming weekend, it might suddenly be sitting pretty for a No. 6 seed.

All hail the power of a hot streak in the Big 12.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 3. Connecticut, 14. Creighton, 17. Marquette, 28. Villanova, 32. St. John's, 35. Seton Hall

Also Considered: Butler, Providence, Xavier

Biggest Change: Seton Hall's ascension continues

Prior to Connecticut's win over Georgetown on Sunday afternoon, Seton Hall was in sole possession of first place in the Big East.

Step up and claim your prize if you had that on your bingo card four weeks ago.

Not only did the Pirates enter league play at 7-4 with only one even remotely noteworthy win—over Missouri on a "neutral" court in Kansas City—but they had to play four of their first six Big East games on the road. Heck, even the two home games were against Connecticut and Marquette.

If anything, we might've projected Seton Hall for sole possession of last place in the Big East at this point.

But they smoked UConn to open league play and have reeled off four consecutive wins since losing at Xavier just before Christmas.

Because those four wins came by a combined margin of 17 points and because the three road wins came against teams not currently projected to dance (Providence, Georgetown and Butler) it didn't do much for Seton Hall's predictive metrics. The Pirates are still outside the top 60 in each of NET, BPI and KenPom.

With a 4-2 record against Quad 1, though, they absolutely belong in the projected field and have even climbed up to a single-digit seed.

Up next: Three home games against St. John's, Creighton and Providence, where two wins would be a plus and three would be massive.

5 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 1. Purdue, 6. Wisconsin, 16. Illinois, 40. Northwestern, 42. Nebraska

Also Considered: Michigan State, Ohio State, Indiana, Iowa

Biggest Change: Wisconsin's growing case for a No. 1 seed

After opening the season 1-2 with losses by double digits to Tennessee (home) and Providence (road), it would have been outlandish to suggest Wisconsin could enter the second half of January in the conversation for a No. 1 seed.

But with wins in 12 of their past 13 games—four of which were Q1 and four of which were Q2—goodness gracious have the Badgers put together a strong resume.

The big thing keeping them from legitimately battling Arizona and North Carolina for the final No. 1 seed is that none of the wins was that great. As far as NET is concerned, Wisconsin's best win of the season was at Michigan State, which isn't even among our first five out at the moment. In fact, Wisconsin's only win over a projected No. 9 seed or better was the home victory over Marquette, which doesn't look as impressive today as it did six weeks ago. (The Badgers also lost by 25 to Arizona.)

Still, to borrow a Jon Rothstein saying, Wisconsin is "in position to be in position" for a No. 1 seed, with two games against Purdue and a home game against Illinois still to come.

The Badgers should have no problem in the next 10 days against Penn State, Indiana and Minnesota, so don't expect them to drop from this perch any time soon.

6 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 18. Utah State, 20. San Diego State, 24. Colorado State, 33. Nevada, 39. Boise State, 47. New Mexico

Also Considered: N/A

Biggest Change: A whole section devoted to the Mountain West

Between both the A-10 and WCC looking like one-bid leagues and the Mountain West seemingly destined for at least four bids, I had been thinking for a while now that it might be time to just replace the "frequent multi-bid mid-majors" section with one reserved for just the Mountain West.

And now that both Boise State and New Mexico have jumped into the projected field to make this a six-bid league, that time has finally come.

As a whole, this sextet has gone 84-16 with 11 Quad 1 wins and nary a loss to Quad 3 or Quad 4. Boise State does have the most Quad 2 losses (three), but it is also the only one of the bunch with at least three Quad 1 wins, getting two of those this week vs. Colorado State and at Nevada.

The big key for the MWC maintaining a five-plus-bid projection is simply avoiding bad losses. These six teams are going to pass quality wins back and forth, but will remain in good shape so long as one of them doesn't end up at 1-9 or 0-10 against the other five and so long as they don't start dropping games against the likes of Air Force, Fresno State, San Jose State and Wyoming.

The one exception to that rule is road games against UNLV. That's not a bad loss—it's one New Mexico already suffered and one that Utah State needed a late five-point possession to avoid over the weekend.

However, a home loss to the Rebels would be an ill-advised, Quad 3 misstep, and one that both Boise State and Colorado State will be looking to avoid this week.

3 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 4. Arizona, 27. Utah, 41. Oregon

Also Considered: Washington State, Colorado, Arizona State

Biggest Change: Adios, Buffaloes

Despite getting swept at Arizona and Arizona State, Colorado was able to hang onto a spot in our projected field one week ago.

But blowing a 20-point first-half lead in a loss to California—which was 5-10 at the time—is a bridge too far.

The Buffs did flip the script in the following game against USC, rallying from a 16-point deficit for a 10-point victory. However, the Trojans were without Boogie Ellis, Isaiah Collier and Joshua Morgan, and Colorado should frankly be embarrassed that it had to come from behind to beat a .500 team playing without three of its starters.

At this point, Colorado is 12-5 overall with no Quad 1 wins and that Quad 3 loss to Cal. The Buffaloes also suffered not-great losses to Florida State (neutral) and Arizona State (road) which land firmly in the bottom half of Quad 2.

For a team playing in what is looking like a three-bid league, though, they do have a surprising amount of opportunity ahead.

Getting a home win over Oregon this Thursday would be good. And starting the following week, they'll have three consecutive road games against Washington, Washington State and Utah, each of which would be a Quad 1 game if played today. They'll also get a rematch with Arizona, a home game against Utah and a road game against Oregon—again, all Quad 1 games based on current NET rankings.

Win at least two of those seven games while avoiding picking up a bad loss elsewhere and maybe they'll have a shot. But, for now, the Buffaloes are not even among our first five out.

8 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 9. Tennessee, 13. Auburn, 19. Kentucky, 21. Alabama, 22. Ole Miss, 23. South Carolina, 34. Texas A&M, 38. Mississippi State

Also Considered: Georgia, Florida

Biggest Change: We need to talk about Kentucky's resume

The Kentucky Wildcats are probably one of the 10 best teams in the country, and maybe the most prolific offense in all the land. They're currently 18th overall on KenPom and eighth in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are just so enjoyable to watch and clearly have a high ceiling in terms of how long they could last in the dance.

But Kentucky does not have a top-10 resume, and it's not even close.

Prior to Illinois' home loss to Maryland on Sunday afternoon, Kentucky was going to be the only team in the top 26 on our overall seed list with at least one loss outside of the top two Quads—vs. UNC Wilmington, which is right in the middle of Q3.

Moreover, Kentucky is one of just two teams in that top 26 with fewer than four wins against the top two Quads. Both Kentucky and Duke have just three such victories, though at least all three of Duke's are Q1, while UK has two Q1 and one Q2.

But Big Blue Nation has grown obsessed with the AP poll, where Kentucky was No. 6 last week and is still clinging to a spot in the Top 10 after the overtime loss at Texas A&M.

Let me say here once and for all: The AP Top 25 is 100 percent irrelevant when it comes to bracketology.

Don't believe me? Go ask Louisville, which got a No. 4 seed in 2014 despite finishing at No. 5 in the AP poll that year. Or Wichita State, which was given a No. 10 seed in 2017 as the No. 19 team in the final AP poll.

We haven't seen anything that wild in recent years, but the fact remains that the AP poll does not matter to the selection committee.

In the data points that do matter, Kentucky is 18th in NET, 27.5 in RES and 18.5 in QUAL, which has "No. 5 seed" written all over it. (But, like, the No. 5 seed that everyone is going to pick to at least reach the Sweet 16, if not the Final Four.)

26 Teams in the Projected Field (by Overall Seed): 8. Memphis, 11. Dayton, 29. Grand Canyon, 30. Florida Atlantic, 31. Princeton, 48. Indiana State, 49. James Madison, 50. McNeese State, 51. Gonzaga, 52. Samford, 53. UC Irvine, 54. Akron, 55. Vermont, 56. High Point, 57. Oakland, 58. Louisiana Tech, 59. Morehead State, 60. Drexel, 61. Eastern Washington, 62. Lipscomb, 63. Southern, 64. Colgate, 65. Merrimack, 66. Norfolk State, 67. South Dakota State, 68. Iona

Also Considered: Drake, George Mason, Saint Mary's, SMU, San Francisco

Biggest Change: Gonzaga's at-large case is on life support

Gonzaga is still our projected automatic bid from the West Coast Conference. As noted in the intro, we allow the predictive metrics to select those 32 teams—as, in theory, the top-rated team in the predictive metrics should win the conference tournament—as opposed to conference record, which is an irrelevant data point.

But were it not for the projected auto bid, the Zags would not even sniff the field today, as evidenced by the fact that they are behind Indiana State, James Madison and McNeese State and not even on the No. 12 seed line at the moment.

That isn't some knee-jerk reaction to the stunning loss to Santa Clara on Thursday night, either. Gonzaga was already on the bubble before that game, sitting at No. 44 on our overall seed list one week ago, thanks to an 0-4 record in Q1 games and a resume in which the best wins were neutral-site games against Syracuse and USC.

The Zags do still have a massive nonconference game at Kentucky, as well as two games each against Saint Mary's and San Francisco. Go at least 13-1 against the remaining slate (or 12-2 with one of the wins coming against Kentucky) before getting clipped in the WCC championship and, sure, there's still a path to an at-large bid.

However, the selection committee isn't going to just put Gonzaga in the field because of its name. If that were a thing, don't you think North Carolina would've gotten in last year?