Which NBA Star Is Most Likely to Break Wilt’s 100-Point Record?

Here’s a stat to put last week’s individual scoring outbursts into perspective. Between 1990 and 2004, there were three total 60-point games in the NBA. Last week alone, there were four. Luka Doncic scored 73 in a single game. Joel Embiid scored 70. Devin Booker and Karl-Anthony Towns scored 62 apiece in losses.

There are plenty of reasons for the surge in spectacular scoring. I wrote about them five years ago, in a piece titled “It’s Never Been Easier to Score 50 Points in the NBA,” and the trends have only accelerated since then. A faster leaguewide pace, better offensive efficiency, an embrace of 3-pointers, and more offenses that revolve around a single star have combined to set the stage for routine fireworks. (So have some terrible defenses, admittedly: The four recent 60-point efforts came against the Spurs, Pacers, Hawks, and Hornets, who rank 25th, 26th, 27th, and 30th, respectively, in defensive rating.)

Some analysts and fans are concerned by the league’s extreme offense-first skew. But that debate isn’t the purpose of this article. Instead, we’re engaging in a speculative exercise inspired by the spate of recent point totals: Could any modern player burst past 50, past 60, past 70, and actually approach Wilt Chamberlain’s hallowed record of 100 points in a game?

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On the one hand, 100 is still far beyond what the top scorers accomplished last week. Embiid and Doncic both cracked 70 points—yet even if they’d played a fifth quarter and scored at the same rate they had over the first four, they would have fallen well short of 100.

On the other hand, both Embiid and Doncic left some potential points on the table, because they either didn’t play as many minutes or take as many shots as they could have. At the very least, their performances suggest a possible path to 100. As Bill Simmons wrote in The Book of Basketball about the second-highest-scoring game ever, “Kobe’s 81-point game made [Wilt’s 100] seem slightly breakable.”

Seven years ago, my Ringer pal Shea Serrano tried to answer this question, ultimately landing on Klay Thompson as the most likely player to match Wilt’s record. Today, as offenses have evolved and a new group of stars has emerged, let’s try again with a structured and analytical approach. We’ll review how Wilt reached 100 points, lay out a modern alternative that accounts for the game’s evolution, and examine today’s top scorers to identify the most likely candidate to reach the 100-point mark.

How Wilt Reached 100

Just as current players are producing more points because of broader trends across the league, Chamberlain also benefited from a number of contextual factors. He played in an era of record pace and point totals. He stayed on the court for all 48 minutes of his 100-point game even though his team led a blowout. His teammates intentionally fouled the opposition to get him the ball back late; in the fourth quarter alone, he attempted 21 field goals and 10 free throws.

Overall, Wilt made a record 36 shots from the field in his 100-point game. (Nobody else has ever made more than 30.) He attempted a record 63 shots. (Nobody else has ever attempted more than 56.) He made 28 free throws, which is tied with an Adrian Dantley performance for the NBA record. In other words, Chamberlain maximized the two routes to scoring that were available to him: 2s and free throws.

Now, players have a third such route, thanks to the 3-point line, which is a crucial component of many high-scoring efforts. Embiid made just one 3 in his 70-point game, but that’s the exception in modern times. Out of 36 60-point outings in the 21st century, only seven (or 19 percent) would have still reached 60 if 3-pointers counted as 2s.

I suppose it’s theoretically possible, somewhere in the basketball multiverse, that a modern player could replicate Wilt’s paint-centric push to triple digits. But it’s far more likely that any present-day player who could challenge his record would need to balance all three paths to points. The question then becomes: How many of each type?

A Modern-Day Path to 100

Let’s reverse engineer an updated route to 100 points, beginning with 2-pointers. Forget making 36 of them, as Wilt did—the last time anyone made even 24 2s in a game was all the way back in 2001, by Chris Webber. A more realistic target is 20 made 2s—which, as this chart shows, has happened an average of once per season in the 21st century.

The list of players with 20-plus 2-point field goals in a game runs the gamut. It includes big men like Embiid and Shaquille O’Neal, forwards like LeBron James and LaMarcus Aldridge, and guards like Kobe Bryant and Bradley Beal. It’s also an achievable mark for non-superstars: Luis Scola, Tony Delk, and Andre Miller, among others, are here too.

When we apply the same once-per-season logic to free throws, we find 25 free throw attempts as the target; that’s happened 28 times in the 21st century, a little more than once per season. (This figure includes only games in which a player made at least two-thirds of their attempts, to avoid counting Hack-a-Center outputs.)

Note that we’re looking at free throw attempts here, not makes, because a player in pursuit of 100 must make the most of every trip to the line. After all, even Wilt needed all 28 of his free throws to reach 100 points, and he was a terrible shooter from the stripe. (The odds that a 51.1 percent career free throw shooter like Chamberlain would make at least 28 of 32 attempts are approximately 1 in 62,000. With merely an average free throw performance that night, Chamberlain’s record would be only 88 points instead of 100.)

Finally, since the 3-point revolution took off in 2016, there have been eight games in which a player made at least 12 3-pointers—also about once per season. (Kobe and Donyell Marshall also made 12 triples in games in the 2000s.) So that’s our target mark for 3s.

In summary, once per year, a player makes at least 20 2-pointers in a game. Once per year, a player attempts at least 25 free throws. And once per year, a player makes at least 12 3-pointers.

Add up those totals, and we get to—drumroll please—101 points and a new record. Call it an even 100 if the player goes 24 for 25 from the line instead of making all 25. (The record for most free throw attempts without a miss is 24.) So to find the player who is most likely to score 100, we need to identify someone capable of accomplishing all three components of this formula—and then hope for a scenario in which they can achieve all three on the same magical night.

Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images

The Candidates

We want to start with a large pool of 100-point options, then use different criteria to eliminate them until just one remains. For this analysis, we’ll generate a list of 50 contenders: the 40 active players with a 50-point game in their careers, because they’ve proved they can get at least halfway to 100, and then the 10 highest-scoring players this season not included in that first batch. (Sorry to Victor Wembanyama, who, for all I know, might actually be the best bet to score 100 points someday.)

Here are our 50 candidates, listed in order by career point total. We’ll start culling them after the list:

LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, Eric Gordon, CJ McCollum, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Derrick Rose, Julius Randle, Khris Middleton, Joel Embiid, Zach LaVine, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, D’Angelo Russell, Jaylen Brown, De’Aaron Fox, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Lauri Markkanen, Fred VanVleet, Jalen Brunson, Caris LeVert, Anthony Edwards, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey, LaMelo Ball

Condition 1: All-NBA Pedigree

As I wrote last week, there are occasional fluke 50-point games from less decorated NBA players, but 60 and above is almost exclusively reserved for all-time greats. I’ll presume that the same logic applies to 100 points and that anyone capable of the pursuit must be a historic talent.

So our first winnowing will capture the players on the initial list who have never made an All-NBA team. There’s a bit of a chicken-and-egg nature to this prognostication—if LeVert scored 100 points in a game, he’d be more likely to make an All-NBA team!—but it’s a useful first step to cut out the 50-point outliers.

However, at least for now, even though they still haven’t made an All-NBA team, we’ll keep Holiday, Middleton, and Murray (because they could be on Hall of Fame paths if they play a key role on another title team), as well as Brunson (who could make an All-NBA team this season) and everyone 25 or younger. But they’re on thin ice, and we won’t make any more exceptions from here.

Eliminated (7): Eric Gordon, CJ McCollum, Zach LaVine, D’Angelo Russell, Lauri Markkanen, Fred VanVleet, Caris LeVert

Remaining (43): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Bradley Beal, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Klay Thompson, Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Derrick Rose, Julius Randle, Khris Middleton, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Jaylen Brown, De’Aaron Fox, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Haliburton, Saddiq Bey, LaMelo Ball

Condition 2: Continued Scoring Prowess

We started by casting a wide net for every active player with a 50-point game. But that list includes post-prime players who can’t realistically light up the scoreboard any longer, so let’s eliminate this group with another cutoff point: 100-point candidates must be averaging at least 18 points per game this season. That’s not a major bar to clear, given that 64 different players are doing so—but it still cuts more than a fifth of our remaining contenders.

Eliminated (9): James Harden, Russell Westbrook, Bradley Beal, Jrue Holiday, Kevin Love, Klay Thompson, Derrick Rose, Khris Middleton, Saddiq Bey

Remaining (34): LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry, DeMar DeRozan, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Paul George, Anthony Davis, Kyrie Irving, Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Karl-Anthony Towns, Julius Randle, Joel Embiid, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Trae Young, Jaylen Brown, De’Aaron Fox, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Ja Morant, Darius Garland, Desmond Bane, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Haliburton, LaMelo Ball

Condition 3: 3-Point Proficiency

Now we get into my theory of how a player in the 21st century could challenge Wilt’s record. Remember, I calculated that the best path to the century mark in the modern game is to make 12 3-pointers, so let’s get rid of the players who haven’t at least shown a proof of concept that they could reach that mark on a hot day. Everyone who hasn’t made at least nine 3s in a game is out.

This qualifier results in a few surprising removals. Young’s single-game career high for 3s is eight, while Booker has somehow never made more than six 3s in a regular-season game. (I double- and triple- and quadruple-checked this stat because I couldn’t believe it. Even in the playoffs, Booker’s high is just eight.) In his 70-point game in 2017, Booker made 24 free throws and 17 2-pointers but only four 3s.

Durant’s gone too, because thanks to his penchant for midrange attempts, he’s never made more than eight 3s in a game; his single-game career high for points is only 55. Gilgeous-Alexander does most of his scoring inside the 3-point line. And Butler might be more likely to score 100 points in a playoff game than in the regular season—he hasn’t reached even 40 points in a regular-season game since he was a Bull seven years ago.

The most controversial facet of this rule is that it eliminates most of the list’s remaining big men. None of Giannis, Davis, Jokic, and Embiid has ever made more than six 3s in a game in the regular season, let alone nine.

If you think someone from that group is the most likely player to push for 100 in a game, I won’t fight that opinion too hard. Giannis and Embiid in particular are the natural candidates to imitate Wilt and power their way to triple digits inside.

But it seems impossible that any modern player could even approach Wilt’s combination of field goal and free throw attempts, given Chamberlain’s advantages in pace and playing time. Remember, Wilt took 63 shots in his record-setting game, but the maximum in the past half century is only 50. (That was Kobe, in his push for 60 points in his final game.)

Current candidates need to compensate by relying on the one area Wilt couldn’t: 3-pointers. There’s a reason that since Wilt retired, there have been only five 60-point games from centers—and the only non-Wilt big in NBA history with multiple 60-point games (Towns) happens to be an elite long-range shooter.

Actually, for as many points as he scored against the Spurs, Embiid’s outburst last week provides evidence for this theory. Against an overmatched San Antonio frontcourt, Embiid attempted 41 field goals and 23 free throws; his usage rate was 57 percent (!), the highest single-game mark in years. He basically maxed out his possible production in that game, and he still finished 30 points shy of Wilt’s record.

Maybe he could’ve cracked 80 with a few more minutes played, but to score 30 more points than he managed? It just seems so unlikely without many more 3s.

Eliminated (17): Kevin Durant, DeMar DeRozan, Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Jimmy Butler, Devin Booker, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Jokic, Julius Randle, Joel Embiid, Trae Young, De’Aaron Fox, Pascal Siakam, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, LaMelo Ball

Remaining (17): LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Damian Lillard, Paul George, Kyrie Irving, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic, Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Darius Garland, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Haliburton

Photo by Jesse D. Garrabrant/NBAE via Getty Images

Condition 4: Free Throw Generation

In the last step, we eliminated the big men who can’t reach the 3-point goal I outlined, so here, we’ll eliminate the guards who won’t get to the line enough to reach the free throw goal. More than half of the remaining players have never attempted at least 20 free throws in a game—or four-fifths of the way to my magic number of 25—so they’re out as well.

This criterion mostly removes the fringier candidates still on the board—but it also knocks out Curry, the most likely player to sink so many 3-pointers that he renders the rest of my math useless.

Yet even for the best shooter in NBA history, that path seems unlikely: Curry hasn’t made even 12 triples in a game since 2016-17, and now that he’s in his mid-30s, an extreme outlier in the range of 20 3s in a game is harder to envision. Curry doesn’t take enough free throws (he’s made more than 15 just once in his regular-season career) or 2-pointers (he’s never made more than 12 in a regular-season game) to be a top candidate to approach 100 points.

And make no mistake: Free throws are a crucial component of any high-scoring night, let alone a hypothetical chase of 100. In every 60-plus-point game this century, the player involved attempted at least 10 free throws, with an average of 18.4 attempts in those outings.

Eliminated (10): Stephen Curry, Kyrie Irving, Jaylen Brown, Jamal Murray, Jalen Brunson, Anthony Edwards, Darius Garland, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons, Tyrese Haliburton

Remaining (7): LeBron James, Damian Lillard, Paul George, Karl-Anthony Towns, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, Luka Doncic

Condition 5: 2-Point Buckets

After going through 3-pointers and free throws, we now arrive at the final prong of my 100-point formula: To move on, players must have a career high of at least 16 2-pointers in a game, or four-fifths of the way to 20.

All four eliminated candidates here come close to that threshold, with career highs of 14 or 15 2-point makes. We’ve gotten to the cream of the high-scoring crop; they rank among the best candidates to produce outrageous scoring nights, as Lillard and Mitchell proved by both reaching the 70-point mark just last season. (Paul George, surprisingly, has never even gone for 50 in a game.)

But we have to be consistent in our logic and stingy with our cuts now that we’re near the end. Anyone with a wish to score 100 couldn’t miss any opportunity to add to their point total.

Eliminated (4): Damian Lillard, Paul George, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum

Remaining (3): LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns, Luka Doncic

Photo by Scott Cunningham/NBAE via Getty Images

The Final Close Analysis

Down to the final three candidates. Let’s take their cases one by one.

First up is Towns, one of only nine players in league history with multiple 60-point games. However, while he survived previous cuts because we were looking at single-game highs over an entire career, he hasn’t reached a couple of those marks in a while: Towns hasn’t attempted more than 16 free throws or made more than 13 2-pointers in a game since 2016-17, his second season in the NBA. He’s a remarkable scorer and maybe the best-shooting big man ever—but he’s not the best bet to approach triple digits.

Neither is the NBA’s career scoring leader. It’s a testament to LeBron’s career and continued success that he’s still in contention—all of the other players age 35 or older were eliminated several cuts ago—but if LeBron never scored more than 61 points in a game during his prime, it’s hard to imagine how he’d get to 100 now. He also hasn’t attempted more than 15 free throws in a game since 2016-17.

Eliminated (2): LeBron James, Karl-Anthony Towns

Remaining (1): Luka Doncic

Luka, though, is at the right age (24) and blessed with the right, multidimensional skill set to challenge 100, or at least Kobe Bryant’s non-Wilt record of 81 points. (That Kobe scored 81 in a low-offense era is even more impressive, however.) The Dallas guard made nine 3-pointers in a game earlier this season and is shooting a career-best 37.5 percent from distance. Last season, he made 19 2-pointers in a game and attempted 22 free throws.

The main problem getting in Doncic’s way, incidentally, is that—perhaps like younger versions of LeBron—he’s not selfish enough to aim for 100. In his 73-point effort, Luka had a usage rate of 41 percent, and he dished seven assists along the way. For comparison, three players have exceeded a 50 percent usage rate in a game this season (minimum 30 minutes): Embiid when he scored 70, Towns when he scored 62, and Booker when he scored 62. Had Luka passed less, and had his game gone into overtime—a real possibility, as Dallas led by just three points with 1:39 remaining—100 could have been in distant reach.

Of course, after last week, Luka now has the highest single-game point total for any active player, so maybe he was the obvious answer to the question of who might score 100 all along. Maybe we didn’t need to follow this entire process to arrive at this conclusion—but it’s nice to see that the math matches the intuition.

Even Luka probably won’t score 100 points in a game; that big, round number still seems like something of myth and legend, not an actual possibility. But 100 points isn’t as unbreakable as some of Chamberlain’s other records, like 50.4 points per game in 1961-62; it’s much easier to post a ridiculous outlier in one game than across a full season. And Doncic has the best chance of anyone to make that ridiculous outlier hypothetical a reality.