After Joel Embiid's injury, the NBA MVP race is wide open

Nikola Jokic

Jokic won MVP in 2020-21 and 2021-22, then finished second to the 76ers big man last season. For this season, Jokic is averaging 26.3 points, 12th in the league, along with 12.2 rebounds (4th) and nine assists (4th). His Denver Nuggets are fourth in the Western Conference, but only 1.5 games out of the top spot.

The Joker isn't quite as absurdly efficient as last season when he made more than two-thirds of his field goal attempts, but he's still shooting 58.2 percent from the field. The advanced statistics still love Jokic, as he's leading the league in both offensive and defensive box scores plus/minus.

What's the knock on Jokic? He's a boring choice, having won twice already and coming off of a Finals MVP. His team may also need to finish on top of the conference for him to win. It might be tough to make Jokic one of only eight players ever to win three MVPs or more if his team ends up in fourth place.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander

There's momentum building among voters for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (SGA), the Oklahoma City Thunder guard who's averaging 31.1 points per game and leads the league in win shares. The Thunder are the NBA's biggest surprise team, sitting one game out of first place in the Western Conference and the league's second-best point differential (7.1 points per game). SGA is their best player and the heart of their offense — and defense.

Gilgeous-Alexander gets the most steals in the league by a huge margin — his 113 are 28 more than his closest competitor, De'Aaron Fox. That's how an OKC team that's very undersized apart from Chet Holmgren can be the NBA's sixth-rated defense: by forcing more turnovers than any other team. In a straw poll conducted by ESPN's Tim Bontemps, SGA was a close second to Jokic.

Giannis Antetokounmpo

Milwaukee's Antetokounmpo is just behind SGA with 30.8 points per game, along with 11.4 rebounds and 6.3 assists. He's been extremely good this year, shooting 61.1 percent from the field, while the Bucks are third in the Eastern Conference. But even with a 35-19 record, the Bucks' season has been considered a disappointment, with new coach Adrian Griffin losing his job to Doc Rivers at midseason.

Perhaps if Antetokounmpo weren't a two-time winner already, he'd have a better chance at hardware this year. Even though the Thunder and Nuggets have virtually the same record as the Bucks (36-17 and 35-18, respectively), their seasons feel like successes, while Milwaukee's feels like a disaster. That's not fair to Antetokounmpo, but when your coach gets fired and your most memorable highlight involves fighting for a game ball, you have to do a little extra to get a trophy.

Luka Doncic

Dallas's 24-year-old phenom is on the list for being the best bucket-getter in the NBA. With Embiid ineligible, Doncic is on track to win his first scoring title, sitting well ahead of the field with a career-high 34.3 points per game. He's close to averaging a triple-double as well, with 9.6 assists to go along with 8.8 rebounds for the Mavericks, who are in eighth place with a 31-23 record.

He and the Mavericks haven't been very good on defense, but when he's torching other teams for huge totals, the defense doesn't matter. Doncic had a game of 73 points, a 50-point effort of Christmas and three other games of 44 or more points this year. He also has ten triple-doubles.

How does Doncic win it? His team needs to get closer to Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander's squads, if not passing them entirely. Fourth-place scoring champion Doncic is a much more alluring MVP candidate than eighth-place, play-in tournament Doncic.

Kawhi Leonard

The Clippers have been awesome since they got James Harden, and Kawhi Leonard has been their best player. The problem with Leonard's candidacy is that his team started slowly, and Leonard's statistics are less impressive than his competition. He's 18th in scoring with 24.1 points per game, 53rd in rebounds with 6.2 and 70th in assists with 3.1. He does have the fourth-most steals per game, with 1.7.

The case for Leonard is that he's the best two-way player in the NBA. Leonard plays lockdown defense, can guard any position and he's very efficient on offense, shooting 52.7 percent from the field, 45.3 percent from three-point range and 89.1 percent from the free-throw line. He simply doesn't shoot as much as the other MVP contenders, probably because the Clippers have stars like Paul George and James Harden around him, plus Norman Powell and Russell Westbrook taking nearly ten shots per game. If the Clippers get the top seed, Leonard has a chance, but he's trailing to the top four at present.

Long Shots

Jayson Tatum is the best player on the NBA's best team, which should always make him an MVP contender. He's scoring 27 points per game and grabbing 8.5 rebounds, but his shooting percentages aren't amazing. Kevin Durant is averaging 28.3 points and making almost 45 percent of his triples while carrying his injury-ridden team. If the Phoenix Suns can clinch home-court advantage for the first round, Durant is in the mix.

The Golden State Warriors are only a game over .500, but as they heat up, it's impossible to count out Steph Curry, who hit 20 three-pointers over two games last week and added a 60-point game and a ridiculous game-winner along the way. Unless the Warriors can get above 45 wins, he's not a realistic candidate, but if he keeps making huge threes — he's made 27 in his last three games and is threatening a single-season record — Curry could sneak in and steal one. Just like he did against Phoenix on Saturday.