Men's Bracketology: 2025 NCAA Tournament

By Joe Lunardi Updated: 03/04/2025 at 9:45 a.m. ET

Here at Bracketology HQ, we track every result every night, ranking and reranking what will eventually comprise the NCAA tournament's field of 68. With major conference play in its final week, our projections will continue to update twice a week, Tuesday and Friday, and then daily as individual automatic bids are awarded.

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Much has been made of this season's attempt by the SEC to break the record for most NCAA bids from a single conference. Also possible for the league is another "record," if you will: that of the team with the worst conference mark to ever make the NCAA field. That standard, four games below .500, was last hit two years ago by West Virginia (19-15, 7-11 Big 12). In our latest Bracketology, both Georgia and Arkansas would equal that mark with both Texas (5-11 in the SEC) and Oklahoma (4-12!) among the First Four Out. How low is too low? Currently, conference affiliation and record are not listed on selection committee team sheets. Every game, every win and every loss is weighed equally. Yes, Oklahoma and Texas have combined for nine Q1 wins. They've also combined for a whopping 19 Q1 losses. That's a .321 winning percentage, with roughly half the games at home. If that's an NCAA tournament team ...

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington

Providence

Denver

Milwaukee

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Lexington

Seattle

Wichita

Cleveland

EAST (NEWARK)

Raleigh

1aq - Duke
16aq - Quinnipiac
aq - SE Missouri State/
8 UConn
9 Vanderbilt

Denver

Providence

Cleveland

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Seattle

Milwaukee

Raleigh

Conference Breakdown

Conference

Team

Photo illo by ESPN Illustration, additional photos courtesy of Getty Images, Associated Press, Imagn, USA TODAY Sports, Icon Sportswire, EPA/Shutterstock

RULES

ESPN's Bracketology efforts are focused on projecting the NCAA tournament field just as we expect the NCAA Division I basketball committee to select the field in March. ESPN bracketologist Joe Lunardi uses the same data points favored by the committee, including strength of schedule and other season-long indicators, including the NET and team-sheet data similar to what is available to the NCAA, in his projections of the field. Visit the NCAA's website for a fuller understanding of NCAA selection criteria.

68-Team Bracket

The 68-team bracket is the standard version of the NCAA tournament field that has been in place since 2011. If the 2021 field is comprised of 68 teams, there will be some key differences to past years, however.

The primary adjustment from a normal year is, of course, the playing of the entire NCAA tournament at a single site. This eliminates the need for geographical considerations in seeding. Additionally, there will be at least one fewer automatic qualifier this season, as the Ivy League's decision to forgo the 2020-21 season reduces the number of AQ entries to 31 for this season.

48-Team Bracket

In this projection, a condensed selection process would reduce the field by 10 at-large teams and 10 automatic qualifiers (the latter of which still receive a revenue unit). The top four seeds in each region would receive a bye into the second round, with four first-round games per region - 5 vs. 12, 6 vs. 11, 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 - being played without fans on the higher seed's home court.

To minimize travel, first-round pairings will be guided by geography to the greatest extent possible. And the reduced field results in only 32 teams competing at the central site. All participants must post a minimum .500 conference record - the "Lunardi Rule" - for at-large consideration.

16-Team Bracket

In this projection, the committee selects and seeds the 16 best available teams. There are no automatic qualifiers, although all non-competing conference champions receive the designated revenue unit.

To maintain some sense of national balance, conference participation is capped at four teams. And no region shall have more than one team from the same conference.

ESPN

Bracket Watch

Top Overall Seed

First Team Out

Last Team In

On the Bubble

Last Four Byes

Last Four In

First Four Out

Next Four Out

68-Team Bracket

SOUTH (ATLANTA)

Lexington

Providence

Denver

Milwaukee

WEST (SAN FRANCISCO)

Lexington

Seattle

Wichita

Cleveland

EAST (NEWARK)

Raleigh

Denver

Providence

Cleveland

MIDWEST (INDIANAPOLIS)

Wichita

Seattle

Milwaukee

Raleigh

Conference Breakdown

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