Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: Upset Meter for Every Sweet 16 Game

Four thrilling days of basketball are in the books, and the 2024 men's NCAA tournament field has been whittled to 16 teams.

All four No. 1 and all four No. 2 seeds are still standings, while No. 11 NC State is the only double-digit seed left standing after it took down the No. 13 seed Oakland team that upset Kentucky in the first round.

That doesn't leave the Sweet 16 with much Cinderella potential, but the potential remains for upsets, as every game will have a favorite even if the expected margin is thin.

Ahead we've given our upset meter rating—low, moderate or high—for the chances of each underdog across all eight Sweet 16 matchups coming away with a victory.

The college basketball world now has a few days to catch its collective breath before the madness begins again next Thursday, so for now, let this serve as a preview of what's to come later this week.

Tipoff: Thursday, March 28, 7:09 pm ET on CBS

Moneyline: Arizona (-310)

The No. 11 seed New Mexico Lobos were a popular pick to upset Clemson heading into their first-round matchup on Friday, but here we are at the end of the first weekend still talking about the Tigers.

Some troubling losses late in the season, including a 21-point loss to Boston College in the ACC tournament, is a big reason many were expecting an early exit from Clemson when brackets were first released.

However, the Tigers dominated in a 77-56 victory over New Mexico and then held Baylor to just 6-of-24 shooting from three-point range—after the Bears poured in 16 threes in their opening-round victory—in a 72-64 upset.

That ability to negate the three ball will be a factor against Arizona's leading scorer Caleb Love, who attempts 7.7 threes per game and shoots 34.3 percent from beyond the arc. However, the Wildcats offense as a whole is built more on attacking the basket for easy looks inside and at the free-throw line.

The battle down low between Arizona's Oumar Ballo (12.9 PPG, 10.0 RPG, 1.3 BPG) and Clemson's PJ Hall (18.7 PPG, 6.5 RPG, 1.5 BPG) should be a good one.

Upset Meter: Moderate. This Clemson team is looking more like the one that started the season 9-0 and had a big road win over Alabama, but Arizona is going to be a handful.

Tipoff: Thursday, March 28, 7:39 pm ET on TBS/truTV

Moneyline: UConn -485

Storylines don't get much juicier than a rematch of last year's national championship game with a trip to the Elite Eight on the line.

The UConn Huskies won that game 76-59, steamrolling the San Diego State Aztecs the same way they did the rest of the field during one of the most dominant March Madness runs in recent memory.

There was a lot of roster turnover on both sides, but the outcome could be the same.

The Aztecs now have a bona fide go-to scorer in Jaedon LeDee after relying on sort of a points-by-committee approach last year and their stifling defense to be the catalyst for winning games.

The Huskies went from a "Big Three" of Adama Sanogo, Jordan Hawkins and Andre Jackson to a similarly impressive trio of Donovan Clingan, Tristen Newton and Alex Karaban, while transfer Cam Spencer and freshman Stephon Castle have added their own wrinkle to the team's attack.

The Aztecs defense is not quite as good as it was last season, and the Huskies offense is even better than it was last year, so it's hard to see how San Diego State flips the script.

Upset Meter: Low. The Huskies might just be a runaway freight train.

Tipoff: Thursday, March 28 after the conclusion of Clemson vs. Arizona (7:09 pm ET) on CBS

Moneyline: North Carolina (-185)

The big question going into the NCAA tournament for Alabama was whether it could string together wins against top-tier opponents after going 4-10 in Quad 1 games while suffering multiple lopsided losses along the way.

No disrespect to No. 13 seed Charleston and a really good No. 12 seed Grand Canyon, but that question still remains.

The Crimson Tide allowed big offensive games to Zach Edey (35 points, 7 rebounds), Ryan Kalkbrenner (19 points, 8 rebounds), Oumar Ballo (16 points, 12 rebounds) and Jonas Aidoo (19 points, 4 rebounds) in losses to Purdue, Creighton, Arizona and Tennessee, so slowing down Armando Bacot inside could prove difficult.

Alabama also likes to run, but that's not going to be an advantage against an equally athletic North Carolina squad. The X-factor will be Mark Sears, who is capable of taking over a game when he's at his best, and that's what it might take.

Upset Meter: Low. Until proven otherwise, this Alabama team simply hasn't shown that it can beat elite-level competition this year.

Tipoff: Thursday, March 28 after the conclusion of San Diego St. vs UConn (7:39 pm ET) on TBS/truTV

Moneyline: Iowa State (-142)

This game is a heavyweight battle between high-powered offense and lockdown defense.

The Iowa State Cyclones force 17.3 turnovers per game and rank No. 1 in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency.

The Illinois Fighting Illini rank No. 1 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency, putting up 84.6 points per game, and star guard Terrence Shannon Jr. is averaging 30.5 points over his last six games after scoring 30 points on 10-of-14 shooting against Duquesne on Saturday.

The Cyclones have only allowed 80 points twice all season, which is a mark the Illini have reached a staggering 20 times, including four straight during their run to the Big Ten tournament title and on into March Madness.

If there's a potential weakness to exploit, it's Illinois' lack of a traditional point guard, which could prove to be an issue against the relentless defensive pressure from the Cyclones. The Illini also don't generally force many turnovers, which could make that a lopsided stat in favor of Iowa State.

Upset Meter: High. The two best offenses the Cyclones faced this year belonged to Baylor (No. 6 in KenPom) and BYU (No. 13 in KenPom), and they split their two games with both teams. The Illini will be the best offense they've squared off against this year.

Tipoff: Friday, March 29, 7:09 pm ET on CBS

Moneyline: Marquette (-290)

With a healthy Tyler Kolek running the point, the Marquette Golden Eagles look like legitimate national championship contenders, but standing in their way is an NC State squad that is on an absolute roll.

The Wolfpack were nowhere near the NCAA tournament bubble heading into the ACC tournament, but they ripped off five wins in five days to claim the automatic bid, knocking off Duke, Virginia and North Carolina along the way.

They then upset No. 6 seed Texas Tech in a lopsided 80-67 game in the first round before turning the clock to midnight on No. 14 seed Oakland's Cinderella story with an overtime victory on Saturday.

DJ Burns Jr. has been a difference-maker down low for the Wolfpack, turning in a 24-point, 11-rebound performance across a season-high 42 minutes against Oakland, and the Golden Eagles could have a tough time banging inside with his 6'9", 260-pound frame.

At the same time, it's fair to wonder if the Wolfpack will be able to slow down the high-powered Marquette offense, as the Golden Eagles have far more impact scoring options than the Texas Tech and Oakland squads NC State sent packing.

Upset Meter: Low. It feels unwise to underestimate this NC State team, but Marquette simply has too many weapons for its defense to handle.

Tipoff: Friday, March 29, 7:39 pm ET on TBS/truTV

Moneyline: Purdue (-205)

The Purdue Boilermakers and Gonzaga Bulldogs have already squared off once this year, meeting up back in November at the Maui Invitational.

The Bulldogs led by as many as nine points in the first half of that game and carried a 35-30 lead into halftime, but they were outscored 43-28 during the second half en route to a 73-63 victory for the Boilermakers.

Zach Edey had 25 points, 14 rebounds and three blocks in that game, though he did have a relatively inefficient game by his standards, shooting 8-of-16 from the floor while knocking down 9-of-10 free throws.

An ice-cold performance from the perimeter was ultimately what sunk the Bulldogs, as they went 0-for-13 from three-point range during the second half and shot just 6-of-32 from deep for the game.

Can they find a way to slow down Edey, who has turned in huge performances against Grambling State (30 points, 21 rebounds) and Utah State (23 points, 14 rebounds) to kick off this year's NCAA tournament run?

Upset Meter: Moderate. The Bulldogs have had more than four months to unpack that early loss to the Boilermakers, but slowing down Edey is going to be a handful once again. The X-factor will be whether they can make any headway on the perimeter.

Tipoff: Friday, March 29 after the conclusion of Marquette vs. NC State (7:09 pm ET) on CBS

Moneyline: Houston (-192)

Can Duke solve the nation's second-best defense?

The Blue Devils are 6-6 this season in games where they shoot below 45 percent from the field, and the Houston Cougars played just four games all season where they allowed the opposition to shoot above 45 percent.

The NCAA tournament has been a cake walk for Duke so far, as the Blue Devils beat No. 13 seed Vermont and No. 12 seed James Madison by a combined 55 points to punch their ticket to the Sweet 16.

B/R's Kerry Miller pulled a great stat in his article ranking all 68 tournament teams, pointing out that the Blue Devils have gone just 2-7 in games decided by seven or fewer points.

Blowing out lesser competition is great, but can they really hang around in a grind-it-out game against a defense that has consistently dominated the opposition?

Upset Meter: Moderate. The upset meter climbed after that nail-biter against Texas A&M on Sunday night, but the smart money is still on the Cougars bending but not breaking against the Blue Devils.

Tipoff: Friday, March 29 after the conclusion of Gonzaga vs. Purdue (7:39 pm ET) on TBS/truTV

Moneyline: Tennessee (-148)

After blowout victories in the first round, the Tennessee Volunteers and Creighton Bluejays both flirted with disaster on their way to a Sweet 16 berth.

The Volunteers saw a double-digit lead in the second half against No. 7 seed Texas whittled down to a two-point advantage when Tyrese Hunter hit a three-pointer with six seconds left to make it a 60-58 game, but a pair of Dalton Knecht free throws sealed the victory as head coach Rick Barnes sent his old employer packing.

Meanwhile, it took the Bluejays double overtime to send No. 11 seed Oregon packing on Saturday night in a game that saw 14 lead changes and nine ties. It took a contested jumper from Baylor Scheierman—one of three Bluejays players who played all 50 minutes—to send the game to overtime, and after a back-and-forth first extra period, the Blue Jays used a 15-2 advantage in the second overtime to escape with the victory.

Both teams have serious offensive firepower, both have experienced guards, and both can make an impact on the defensive end. Buckle up.

Upset Meter: High. These two teams match up extremely well, with a slight edge to the Volunteers for their superior defense.