One Silver Lining for Each of the NBA’s Eliminated Teams

The 2023-24 NBA regular season was full of terrible teams, despite a lackluster upcoming draft class that should have theoretically curbed the urge to tank. Barring a late-season surge from the Trail Blazers, Spurs, or Hornets, a whopping five teams this season will lose at least 60 games each, which would be the most 60-loss teams in any season in the 21st century.

Yet even amid that futility, those franchises nurture reasons for hope. So as the playoffs approach and analysis zooms in even more on the 20 teams that still have a chance to raise the Larry O’Brien Trophy this summer, let’s bid a proper farewell to the 10 eliminated teams before we forget about them until the draft. Here is one promising sign for each of them, ranging from tiny glimmers for some lottery-bound losers to a 7-foot-4 beacon of light for one team at the bottom of the standings.

Brooklyn Nets

Uh, Ben Simmons’s contract has only one year left? Although the Nets have one of the best records out of this group of teams, their situation ranks among the bleakest as they continue to sift through the wreckage of their failed KD-Kyrie-Harden superteam. Mikal Bridges was good but not great this season, Cam Johnson didn’t improve, and the team didn’t add any first-round picks at the deadline.

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So let’s applaud Cam Thomas’s emergence, as the young guard more than doubled his points-per-game average to a solid 22 this season. On a good team, Thomas would probably profile as a microwave scorer off the bench, à la Lou Williams or Jamal Crawford, but his ability to get to the free throw line and make tough shots over NBA defenders will travel regardless of his role.

Toronto Raptors

The Raptors’ downfall for the past half decade has been a lack of offensive oomph. Toronto hasn’t had a top-10 offense since winning the championship in 2018-19, and in the past three seasons, its half-court offense has ranked 26th, 25th, and 25th again, per Cleaning the Glass.

But when Scottie Barnes shared the court with new teammates Immanuel Quickley and RJ Barrett (and Pascal Siakam was off the floor), the Raptors scored 119.3 points per 100 possessions, per CtG. That figure ranks in the 77th percentile leaguewide, which should offer Toronto hope that its young building blocks can construct a competent offense together.

Charlotte Hornets

A year in, it looks like the Hornets chose right with the no. 2 pick last summer, when they selected Brandon Miller instead of Scoot Henderson. Miller outperformed Henderson in just about every statistical category in their rookie seasons, and Miller especially looks better by advanced metrics. (Box plus-minus rates Henderson as the NBA’s worst qualified player this season.)

But the Hornets’ biggest in-season coup was adding to its unimpressive stash of future draft picks. Before the trade deadline, Charlotte was actually down one future protected first, which the team had traded on draft day in 2021 in exchange for the now-departed Kai Jones. But at the deadline, the Hornets added two future firsts—one apiece for Terry Rozier and P.J. Washington. Swapping role players for draft assets might help them land more high-end talent in the future, even if neither pick will convey before 2027 at the earliest.

Washington Wizards

In 36 games since January 3, Deni Avdija is averaging 17 points, eight rebounds, and four assists per game and making 40 percent (!) of his 3-pointers. That’s half a season of excellence from a player who’d never averaged double-digit points or shot better than 32 percent from distance in any previous season.

Avdija’s four-year, $55 million extension kicks in next season and declines each year. Given his leap over the second half of the season, that now looks like one of the most team-friendly deals in the league.

Detroit Pistons

In November, I wrote a long piece about why advanced stats loathed Cade Cunningham. I still don’t think Cunningham profiles as a no. 1 option on a contender, which is what the Pistons hoped when they drafted him no. 1 in 2021; rather, he looks better suited as a strong sidekick for a theoretically superior teammate. Among 16 qualified players with at least a 30 percent usage rate this season, Cunningham ranks 16th in true shooting percentage.

But over the course of the season, Cunningham cut down his turnovers and boosted his scoring efficiency from terrible to merely run-of-the-mill bad, which are huge steps in the right direction for the 22-year-old. A 36 percent stroke from 3-point range—40 percent since the All-Star break—is even more reason to believe in his development.

Houston Rockets

The Rockets kick-started their rise up the standings with a pair of veteran acquisitions, as Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks signed in free agency last summer. But it’s the team’s younger core that represents its greatest reason for optimism. Alperen Sengun could have been an All-Star in his third season. Jalen Green made a ludicrous leap down the stretch and now looks more worthy of his no. 2 selection in the 2021 draft. Jabari Smith Jr. improved on both ends. Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore showed major flashes as rookies.

And those five players are all in their age-21 seasons or younger, which highlights the Rockets’ impressive combination of production and potential. Could Houston—which also has a number of juicy picks coming its way from Brooklyn in the coming seasons—follow Oklahoma City’s path as a young, rising power out of the Southwest? The 2023-24 Rockets took the first step, jumping from an average record of 20-62 over the last three seasons to around .500 this year. They might have fallen short of the play-in, but the bigger-picture perspective reveals a franchise back on track after the worst three-season stretch in its history.

Utah Jazz

The 2023-24 Jazz featured two standout performers. First, Lauri Markkanen proved that last season’s Most Improved Player triumph wasn’t a fluke, as he posted essentially the same stellar statistics in his second season in Utah. Despite some rumors ahead of the deadline, the Jazz opted not to trade the 26-year-old All-Star, and for good reason.

Second, Collin Sexton turned in the best season of his career. The 25-year-old guard has scored more in the past (24 points per game as a 22-year-old), but in more minutes with worse efficiency on a worse team. This season, however, he’s averaging an efficient 19 points and a career-high five assists per game, and his advanced metrics are by far the best of his career. Both Markkanen and Sexton joined the Jazz as part of the Donovan Mitchell trade—which means the team is reaping rewards from that transaction even before the picks they got from Cleveland make it to Salt Lake City.

Memphis Grizzlies

In an otherwise lost season during which the Grizzlies set an ignominious record by giving minutes to 31 players, the most for any team in NBA history, two young bright spots emerged. Rookie GG Jackson II averaged 13 points per game, and 2022 second-round pick Vince Williams Jr. added 10 points per contest. Both players shot well and contributed across the board, proving they belong in an NBA rotation despite their inexperience.

Memphis’s core next season should be the same as it was before this one: Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. are still the team’s big three. (Another silver lining from this season is that the extra on-ball reps that Bane and Jackson took while Morant was out should benefit them in the future.) But the 2024-25 Grizzlies should be able to surround that trio with more young talent, after having whiffed on a number of recent first-round selections.

Portland Trail Blazers

Dating back to the start of his career in Toronto, I have always believed in Dalano Banton’s potential, largely because any 6-foot-9 guard who can play gives his team so much positional flexibility. Unfortunately, Banton never quite found his footing or convinced a coach he deserved more playing time—until the Celtics shipped him to Portland at the trade deadline, and Banton began to flourish in obscurity.

Over his last 19 games, dating back to March 1, Banton is averaging 18 points, five rebounds, four assists, and 1.8 stocks per game. He’s still nowhere near the top of Portland’s future depth chart, with so many young, highly touted guards on the roster. (Isn’t it ironic that the Trail Blazers broke up the Damian Lillard–CJ McCollum core, only to stumble into another roster led by small guards?) But Banton is a real NBA player, and he finally might have found a place where he can convert that potential into actual production.

San Antonio Spurs

Here are the best rookie seasons of the past half-century (minimum 750 minutes played), according to box plus-minus:

I ran a version of this chart in a piece earlier this season about Chet Holmgren’s phenomenal start. Chet’s pace declined over the course of the season, but he’s still in elite company, sandwiched between Shaquille O’Neal and Kawhi Leonard.

But now the season is almost over, and Victor Wembanyama is still near the very top of the leaderboard, surrounded by a bunch of the best players in NBA history. Wemby is one of the youngest players on this chart. He has a legitimate case to win Defensive Player of the Year, or at the very least become the first rookie since Tim Duncan to make an All-Defensive team. And he’s in the process of completing one of the greatest rookie seasons the league has ever seen. For San Antonio, once again, the future could not look brighter.