Ranking the 7 Biggest QB Busts Since 2000 NFL Draft

The entirety of the NFL draft is an educated guessing game.

Some players seem like "can't-miss" prospects and back up their billing, yet other highly regarded talents never pan out. In other cases, late-round selections or undrafted players far surpass their minimal expectations—but many of them contribute little or nothing.

The challenge for a quarterback, however, is that no position on the field demands as much spotlight or scrutiny.

Missing on an offensive lineman stings. Whiffing on a QB can set back a franchise for a half-decade or more, and that player unfortunately may leave the NFL wearing the "bust" label.

The following ranking is based largely on total production in a career from a quarterback drafted in the first round.

One quick note: Players selected in the last four years are given a little bit of a grace period. Look, even though it appears the situation with Zach Wilson and Trey Lance is clear, we'll lay off them—for now.

Still with a QB-laden first round coming up on April 25—with the likes of Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels and Drake Maye primed to be selected at the top of the draft—it's a good time to look back at what could go wrong.

For the Cleveland Browns, the No. 22 overall pick must be cursed.

The organization has selected three quarterbacks at that particular spot since 2000, and none of them excelled. The first of the inglorious bunch was Brady Quinn in 2007.

After a standout career at Notre Dame, the Ohio native returned to his home state. Quinn served as the backup in his rookie year and replaced Derek Anderson midway through the 2008 season. However, a broken finger on his throwing hand limited Quinn to three starts.

Quinn initially won the starting job in 2009, then was benched, then returned, then missed the last two games with a foot injury.

Cleveland sent him to the Denver Broncos, where he made zero appearances over two seasons. Quinn opened eight games as an injury replacement for the Kansas City Chiefs in 2012 before bouncing around the league as a reserve who didn't play again.

Quinn ultimately went 4-16 in 20 starts, averaging 5.5 yards per attempt with 12 touchdowns against 17 interceptions.

Back in 1983, the Buffalo Bills used the No. 14 choice on Jim Kelly—who became a Hall of Famer. So, in 2013, Buffalo had never picked a QB higher than EJ Manuel at No. 16 except for a franchise legend.

Well, it didn't go quite as smoothly.

Manuel snagged the QB1 label as a rookie in 2013. He notched a 4-6 record amid a couple of injuries before a career-altering moment in 2014. Buffalo benched him after a 2-2 start in favor of veteran Kyle Orton. In hindsight, Manuel said that decision never gave him a chance to grow.

The next offseason, nevertheless, the Bills brought in Matt Cassel and Tyrod Taylor. Manuel started three games over the next two years, along with one as an injury replacement for the Oakland Raiders in 2017.

Manuel wrapped up his career with a 6-12 record, tallying 6.4 yards per attempt and 20 touchdowns to 16 interceptions.

Matt Leinart absolutely shined in three seasons at USC, winning a national championship and a Heisman Trophy. It was no surprise that the Arizona Cardinals picked him 10th overall in 2006.

Arizona planned to start Kurt Warner, but he struggled early and the team switched to Leinart in Week 5. The southpaw opened 11 games before a shoulder injury ended his season. Leinart then landed the starting job to begin the 2007 campaign.

But he was benched in Week 3. Benched in Week 4. And then, a broken collarbone cut short Leinart's year—and proceeded to create Warner's late-career revival that helped Arizona reach the Super Bowl in 2008.

Leinart spent that season and the next on the bench, save for an ineffective start in 2009.

After a few years as a backup, Leinart last played in 2012 with the Raiders. He retired with an 8-10 record, trudging to 6.3 yards per attempt in 641 throws and 15 scores against 21 interceptions.

One bad season is not a legitimately fair way to define a player's career. Most rookies are not immediate stars, and first-year quarterbacks very rarely reach that status.

Nevertheless, the only story we can tell about Josh Rosen's career is how a bad season changed his trajectory.

Arizona posted a 3-10 record in 2018 as the No. 10 pick of the draft mustered 5.8 yards per attempt and 11 touchdowns against 14 picks. The organization fired head coach Steve Wilks and hired Kliff Kingsbury, who brought an offensive system that certainly matched Kyler Murray's dual-threat skill set better than Rosen's more traditional profile.

So, the Cards shipped him to the Miami Dolphins for second- and fifth-round draft picks. The best-case scenario was that Rosen would be the solution for a roster entering a big rebuild.

Rosen lost three starts, and Miami benched him for Ryan Fitzpatrick.

In all likelihood, Rosen made his final NFL appearances and 11 pass attempts with the Atlanta Falcons in 2021. He holds a 3-13 mark as a starter, posting 5.6 yards per attempt and 12 scores to 21 interceptions.

Even since 2000, many first-round quarterbacks were drafted higher than Paxton Lynch. Most entered with greater expectations.

None, though, offered less production than him.

Selected with the 26th pick in 2016, the Memphis product made three appearances with the Denver Broncos as a rookie and two more in 2017. He threw 128 passes, and that is the entirety of Lynch's career in the NFL.

Denver released him before the 2018 season, and he didn't play in 2019 as a backup for the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Lynch has landed on CFL, USFL, XFL and UFL rosters in the last few years.

The single greatest issue from a football perspective, by Johnny Manziel's own admission, is that he didn't take it seriously.

In a recent documentary, Manziel said he never watched a second of tape to prepare for NFL games. The dynamic Texas A&M quarterback who dazzled on Saturdays simply was a nightmare in the pros.

Brian Hoyer started over the No. 22 pick for much of the 2014 campaign. In 2015, Manziel only took the reins of the Browns offense (on three separate occasions) because of injuries to Josh McCown. Most memorably, Manziel relinquished QB1 status following a video surfaced of him partying in Texas during an idle weekend.

His substance use and actions are well-documented.

Cleveland released Manziel after the season, and he never returned to an NFL roster. Manziel went 2-6 in eight starts.

Yeah, yeah. Knew it was coming.

Such is life for a No. 1 overall selection, though, and JaMarcus Russell—very admirably, by the way—has learned to wear it.

"My s--t didn't turn out how I ever wanted it to, or not how they expected it to," he said in 2022. "But if you're going to call me a 'bust', put the 'biggest' on that m---------r then. That s--t don't bother me, man."

Oakland picked him first in 2007, and the rocket-armed QB lasted three seasons with the Raiders. He went from a rookie reserve to an underwhelming starter to being benched in those years, tossing 18 touchdowns and 23 interceptions with a 7-18 record.

"Yeah, I only played for three years in the league. But those three years cover a lifetime," Russell later said.