NBA Draft Lottery 2024: Projected Order and Odds for Every Team Involved
April 14, 2024NBA Draft Lottery 2024: Projected Order and Odds for Every Team Involved
The 2024 NBA Draft Lottery has been set.
Sunday's conclusion of the 2023-24 regular season locked in the 14 teams who will be vying for a shot at the No. 1 pick when the 2024 NBA Draft begins June 26.
Here are the non-playoff teams who will be in the mix May 12 when the 2024 NBA Draft Lottery takes place in Chicago, and what odds each franchise has of earning the No. 1 pick.
NBA Draft Lottery Odds
- Detroit Pistons, 14-68 (14% chance to win NBA Draft Lottery)
- Washington Wizards, 15-67 (14%)
- Portland Trail Blazers, 21-61 (13.3%)
- Charlotte Hornets, 21-61 (13.2%)
- San Antonio Spurs, 22-60 (10.5%)
- Toronto Raptors, 25-57 (9.0%)
- Memphis Grizzlies, 27-55 (7.5%)
- Utah Jazz, 31-51 (6%)
- Houston Rockets (from Brooklyn Nets), 32-50 (4.5%)
- Atlanta Hawks, 36-46 (3.0%)
- Chicago Bulls, 39-43 (2.0%)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (from Houston Rockets), 41-41 (1.5%)
- Sacramento Kings, 46-36 (0.8%)
- Portland Trail Blazers (from Golden State Warriors), 46-36 (0.7%)
Full odds from Tankathon.
The Trail Blazers earned a better shot at the top pick thanks to Sunday's 121-82 loss to the Kings.
That defeat tied Portland with 61-loss Charlotte and granted the Blazers improved odds of a top pick, while slightly denting both the Hornets' and Spurs' chances.
Meanwhile, the Warriors defeated the Jazz in a 123-116 regular-season finale.
That final loss ensured Utah maintains the eighth-best odds for the No. 1 pick ahead of the Rockets.
Spurs Could Follow Wembanyama with Second No. 1 Pick
The San Antonio Spurs have a 11.5 percent chance of earning the No. 1 pick for the second time in as many years.
Adding 7-foot-4 phenom Victor Wembanyama wasn't enough to pull the Spurs out of the basement of the NBA standings alone. Could the top pick in the 2024 draft be enough to speed up the rebuild during the 2024-25 season?
If the Spurs get the chance to select first, the team could draft for position rather than choose the best overall player.
The next face of the San Antonio franchise is already secured with Wembanyama developing at center, and there is a lack of consensus regarding which player should go first in the draft.
That means the Spurs could choose to target an area of weakness on the roster rather than automatically going for Perth power forward/center Alexandre Sarr, who is projected by Jonathan Wasserman as the first overall pick in his latest 2024 NBA Mock Draft for Bleacher Report.
Given a shot at the top pick, the Spurs could decide to bolster their backcourt instead with an addition like top-ranked Kentucky guards Rob Dillingham and Reed Sheppard.
Four Teams Could Win Their First Top Pick
Nine teams have never won the lottery, but four will get another shot next month.
The Memphis Grizzlies, Utah Jazz, Atlanta Hawks and Oklahoma City Thunder will enter the lottery with a shot at the first No. 1 pick in franchise history.
Of those possibilities, the Grizzlies (7.5 percent chance) and Jazz (6.0 percent chance) have the best odds of earning the top pick.
The Grizzlies have been granted the No. 2 selection five times, which they most recently used in 2019 to draft point guard Ja Morant.
Memphis hasn't picked within the top ten since.
The Jazz used the No. 9 pick of the 2023 draft to snag power forward Taylor Hendricks, but that marked the franchise's first top-10 pick since drafting Dante Exum in 2014.
Utah has not selected within the top two picks since 1980.
A lucky lottery day could help both franchises recover from disappointing seasons. The Hawks underperformed despite a talented roster, while the Jazz need to jumpstart the rebuild still taking shape in the wake of trading Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert.
Chances are slim, but both teams now have further those missions with a No. 1 pick thanks to losing streaks at the tail end of the 2023-24 season.