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Ripple Effects of Jared Goff Contract on Dak Prescott, More NFL QB Extension Talks
Jared Goff's redemption arc with the Detroit Lions is complete. Three years after the Los Angeles Rams traded him as part of the package to land Matthew Stafford, Goff has established himself as Detroit's long-term answer at quarterback.
On Monday, Goff and the Lions agreed to a four-year, $212 million contract extension that includes $170 million guaranteed, according to ESPN's Adam Schefter. The extension ensures that Goff, who will turn 30 in October, will be leading the Lions for the foreseeable future.
It could also have a significant impact on the evolving quarterback market.
Goff didn't supplant Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals as the NFL's highest-paid quarterback in terms of annual value, but he now ranks second at $53 million per season. That'll be important for quarterbacks seeking a new deal—including Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa and Jordan Love—but not necessarily looking to top the market.
Thanks to Goff, the price point for a high-end starter just went up. Let's examine what that means for the quarterbacks and teams looking to work out new deals in the near future.
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Dak Prescott told reporters in mid-April that he doesn't "necessarily" want to be the league's highest-paid quarterback. That was probably a relief for the Dallas Cowboys, who are already set to pay a $55.5 million cap hit for the final year of his current deal.
However, thanks to Goff, the bar is now set at $53 million annually for a deal that doesn't quite top the market. (Joe Burrow's deal is worth $55 million annually.)
One can assume that Prescott will want to at least top Goff, if not Burrow.
While Goff has been a stabilizing presence for the Lions, Prescott was the MVP runner-up this past season. He's only a year older than Goff, and it's fair to believe that the next-man-up nature of quarterback contracts should apply to Prescott.
The Cowboys' options now include extending Prescott or potentially losing him in 2025 free agency. His contract includes a no-tag and no-trade clause, so they aren't allowed to franchise-tag him next spring.
Prescott would have no reason to consider giving the Cowboys a hometown discount in free agency. They should be angling to get a deal done now—before the next big quarterback contract comes through—unless they're willing to start over at the game's most important position next year.
An extension theoretically could also lower Prescott's 2024 cap hit and give Dallas the flexibility needed to extend players like star edge-rusher Micah Parsons and wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. However, the Cowboys will have to get a deal done quickly before another quarterback signs.
Whichever signal-caller inks their new deal next will likely top Goff's annual rate. If that isn't Prescott, it could still push Prescott's dollar value to the top of the market, regardless of whether he "necessarily" wants it to.
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Jordan Love had his fair share of ups and downs early in his first year as the Green Bay Packers' starter. However, he was playing like one of the league's top signal-callers by the end of the season, and he helped bring Green Bay to within a few plays of the NFC Championship Game.
The one-year extension that Love signed in 2023 has him under contract through the upcoming season. The Packers could wait to see another year from Love before committing long-term—there is always a chance that he regresses in his second year as a starter—and they could buy further time by using the franchise tag on him in 2025.
However, the Packers could potentially save considerable money by getting an extension done now.
As quarterback prices continue to rise, so too will the value of the franchise tag. An increase in the market rate could also raise Love's price point, even if he's only seeking top-five compensation.
"At a minimum, Love should be in the $48.5 million-to-$49 million-per-year neighborhood by approximating the midpoint of the league's fourth- and fifth-highest paid player," former NFL agent Joel Corry wrote for CBS Sports.
It's fair for the Packers to believe that Love's resume isn't strong enough to justify a market-leading contract. However, the longer Green Bay waits on an extension, the more likely it is that those top-five values approach Burrow's deal.
Using Corry's top-five positioning, Goff's deal has already pushed Love's value into the $51-52 million-per-year range. That would put Love between Jalen Hurts of the Philadelphia Eagles and Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens—the MVP runner-up in 2022 and the reigning MVP, respectively.
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The good news for the Packers is that they had the NFL's youngest roster in 2023. The benefit of having a roster not loaded with pricey veteran deals is that shelling out a high-end quarterback contract shouldn't cripple the team financially.
While the Miami Dolphins aren't exactly an "old" team—their average age at the start of the 2023 season was 0.7 years older than Green Bay's, according to Jimmy Kempski of PhillyVoice—they do have a lot of money tied up in veteran deals.
Right now, the Dolphins have only $1.9 million in effective cap space. They're already projected to be nearly $3.6 million over the cap in 2025. If quarterback Tua Tagovailoa signs an extension that approaches or tops Goff's new contract, Miami may soon have to make some difficult decisions.
The Dolphins already parted with cornerback Xavien Howard this offseason in a cap-saving move. Could a pricey vet like Tyreek Hill, Bradley Chubb or Jalen Ramsey be out in 2025? Will the Dolphins have enough money to extend standout receiver Jaylen Waddle?
These will become legitimate questions once Miami and Tagovailoa put pen to paper, which is widely expected to happen at some point this offseason.
"The next three months will be crucial. My sense is this is not something that has graduated to imminent, but the Dolphins are pretty committed to this," ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said on SportsCenter (h/t Bleacher Report's Timothy Rapp).
The Dolphins have crafted a roster at least capable of challenging for a Super Bowl by building around a rookie quarterback contract. That isn't likely to be an option moving forward, meaning 2024 could represent Miami's last, best chance to make a serious run.
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Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick of the 2021 NFL draft, had a disaster of a rookie campaign under short-lived head coach Urban Meyer. By the end of his second season, though, Lawrence had his Jacksonville Jaguars in the playoffs and himself in the Pro Bowl.
At that point, it felt like an early extension was inevitable. However, Lawrence wasn't extension-eligible until this offseason.
Those extension talks appear to have already begun.
"We've had some great talks and great conversations," general manager Trent Baalke said, via a team transcript (h/t NFL.com's Christian Gonzales). "... We're working, but you can't force this stuff."
Jacksonville might be wise not to rush anything. Yes, the price of quarterbacks is going up, which is why teams like Dallas and Green Bay should act quickly. At this point, though, the Jaguars can't be sure that Lawrence is destined to be a perennial Pro Bowler.
Injuries did play a factor in 2023, but Lawrence was far closer to good than great this past season. He posted a passer rating of only 88.5 (after a 95.2 rating in 2022) and an 8-8 record as the starter.
In three years, Lawrence now has one Pro Bowl appearance, one playoff loss and two underwhelming seasons. That 2022 campaign was promising, but Lawrence hasn't done enough to justify a contract worth upward of $50 million per year, which has become the going rate after Goff's extension.
With the fifth-year team option at their disposal, the Jags aren't in danger of losing Lawrence for another two years—three if they consider using the franchise tag on him. Lawrence's price tag could be significantly higher if he signs then instead of now, but only if he returns to his 2022 form and stays there.
If Lawrence's Pro Bowl campaign proves to be the aberration, the Jaguars could regret an early extension in a big way.
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The Pittsburgh Steelers aren't likely to talk about extensions for new quarterbacks Russell Wilson and Justin Fields soon. They signed Wilson to a one-year, $1.2 million deal, while they declined their fifth-year option on Fields after acquiring him via a trade with the Chicago Bears.
Wilson and Fields are each slated to become free agents in 2025. Both players are also looking to rejuvenate their careers in Pittsburgh, which has a playoff-ready roster. Neither one is getting a pay raise before the Steelers see them play.
Wilson reportedly is viewed as the starter for now.
"Steelers coach Mike Tomlin was upfront with Justin Fields—told him that Russell Wilson is the starter, and Fields will work from there," Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated posted on X in March.
However, that doesn't mean that Fields won't have a chance to overtake Wilson at some point in 2024. He didn't pan out with the Bears, but he did show flashes of being a dangerous dual-threat signal-caller.
If Fields or Wilson becomes a Pro Bowl-caliber player with the Steelers this season, it could either prompt Pittsburgh to start considering signing them to an extension or make Wilson or Fields a top target in 2025 free agency.
Next year's draft class isn't expected to feature the same level of top-end quarterback talent that the 2024 class boasted. That could push a deal for Wilson or Fields into the $50 million-per-year range if either is viewed as a high-end, long-term option.
Kirk Cousins, who is coming off a torn Achilles and is turning 36 in August, landed a four-year deal with the Atlanta Falcons this offseason worth $45 million annually. With Goff further raising the bar, the open-market rate for quality signal-callers should also be on the rise.
There's no guarantee that either of Pittsburgh's new quarterbacks will become as coveted next offseason as Cousins was this spring. However, their situations are worth monitoring ahead of a 2025 free-agent class that could feature Prescott, Love, Tagovailoa and not a whole lot else.
Cap and contract information via Spotrac.
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