Waste Management Phoenix Open Picks, Props and Predictions: Who the SI Golf Betting Panel Likes

The SI Golf betting team has added some new blood and a new betting panel for the 2025 season. Starting at this week’s Phoenix Open and continuing every Wednesday through the Tour Championship, our team of golf and golf betting experts will provide you with a bevy of picks we hope leads to a profitable season for everyone.  

It’s us against the books. Let’s make some money! 

Our panel includes SI golf betting insiders Iain MacMillan and Matt Vincenzi, SI senior golf editor John Schwarb, Tap in Birdie podcast host and golf betting influencer Brian Kirschner, FanSided senior editor and golf bettor Cody Williams and Minute Media VP of Betting Content Brian Giuffra. 

We’ll make outright picks to win, highlight a longshot bet that might be worth a sprinkle, first-round leader picks, our favorite prop bet for the week and our winning score prediction. More than that, we’ll be transparent about our performance so you know which panelists to tail and who to fade throughout the season.

Below, you’ll see our picks and breakdowns on why we made the bets underneath the graphic. This will be published every week on Wednesday so make sure to check back and see how we did and how we’re betting the next event. 

Now, onto the picks. 

Outright Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Sahith Theegala 45/1 at FanDuel

If you’re looking at recent form, you’re going to stay far away from Sahith Theegala. Personally, I’m willing to look past some subpar starts based on his strong history at TPC Scottsdale. He finished runner-up here in 2022 and solo fifth last year, which makes him worth a shot at his current price tag of 45-1.

Matt Vincenzi: Justin Thomas 14/1 at BetMGM

I much prefer the number that DK floated a few months ago (25-1), but I can’t shake the feeling that this is the week JT finally breaks through and ends his 992-day (yikes!) winless streak. As we’ve seen at previous Ryder Cups and Presidents Cups, Thomas thrives on getting the crowd going. The two-time major winner has been fantastic at this golf course, finishing in the top 17 in seven consecutive starts at the WM Phoenix Open. 

John Schwarb: Scottie Scheffler 3/1 at DraftKings

In his first week back from injury Scheffler was first in strokes-gained approach. In his second week, he returns to winning and makes it three WMPOs in four years.

Brian Kirschner: Tom Kim 30/1 at DraftKings

One of the most promising young stars on the PGA Tour certainly found his form last week with a top-10 finish at Pebble. There is no doubt that Tom possesses win equity in this field and I like that he played this event here twice in his early career. 

Cody Williams: Maverick McNealy 65/1 at FanDuel

A guy with one of the best short games on the PGA Tour historically lost 4.6 strokes putting at Pebble Beach while gaining 4.7 tee to green. Now he returns to TPC Scottsdale after a T6 last year — consider my ears perked up. 

Brian Giuffra: Billy Horschel 70/1 at FanDuel

Horschel is coming off a hot finish at Pebble Beach, placing T9 with a Sunday 66. He placed T6 at the WMPO in 2022, T32 the next year and T41 last year. While that’s not exactly lighting it up, his approach game has been strong this year. I also like the value here. BetMGM has him at +5500 and DraftKings has him at +6000. 

Longshot Pick 

Iain MacMillan: Andrew Novak 90/1 at FanDuel

If you’re going to give me a golfer at 90/1 odds who finished solo third and T13 in his last two starts, I’m going to take a shot on him. He gained strokes in all four major areas in those starts and now he returns to an event that he finished T8 at in 2024.

Matt Vincenzi: Rickie Fowler 80/1 at FanDuel

Fowler has quietly been playing solid golf since the fall. A trip to one of his favorite courses on Tour could be just the recipe to get one of the game’s most recognizable names back in contention. 

John Schwarb: Lucas Glover 70/1 at DraftKings

Finished T3 at Pebble Beach with four rounds in the 60s, yet is 70-1 in this field? Sign me up.

Brian Kirschner: Billy Horschel 70/1 at DraftKings

This eight-time PGA Tour winner is coming off a T9 finish at Pebble where he gained over 4 strokes on approach and with the flatstick. This is an event he has played every year since 2013 so it's certainly one he feels comfortable at. 

Cody Williams: Gary Woodland 110/1 at FanDuel

Woodland quietly has two Top 25 finishes to start the 2025 season and gained 2.7 strokes on approach last week and 5.7 tee-to-green at Sony. The 2018 winner at Phoenix seems to have his mojo back at a place he’s played well at when he’s right, which he seems to be.

Brian Giuffra: Keith Mitchell 90/1 at FanDuel

While I already gave you a longshot above, and I see Kirshner is on board too, let’s dig a bit deeper here. Mitchell has made the cut in all three events this year and finished no worse than 9-under. He had a T10 at the WMPO in 2021 and was T17 last year. His approach game has been the weaklink this year, but he’s ninth in SG: Off the Tee and is a great putter too. That should help this week. 

First-Round Leader Pick

Iain MacMillan: Rasmus Hojgaard 55/1 at DraftKings

I bought a lot of Rasmus Hojgaard stock to start the season and his strong start at Pebble Beach last week gave me even more confidence in Nicolai’s twin moving forward. He gained +1.13 strokes with his irons last week, a strong sign ahead of TPC Scottsdale. It’s also worth noting his first round was his best of the tournament last week, posting a 65.

Matt Vincenzi: K.H. Lee 125/1 at BetMGM

“TPC Lee” had a runner-up finish at TPC Scottsdale back in 2021. He shot three consecutive rounds of 66 to kick off his week before stumbling on Sunday. He hasn’t been his best over the past few years, but he showed some signs of life in his most recent start at Torrey Pines, where he finished T9. 

John Schwarb: Charley Hoffman at 75/1 DraftKings

The green-gloved WM ambassador lost here in a playoff last year and has had a nice West Coast Swing.

Brian Kirschner: JT Poston 60/1 at DraftKings 

Poston has two things going for him this week: he is a very fast starter and he plays great in the desert. First-round leader at the RBC Heritage and American Express in the past year, he is always someone to target in this market. J.T. was a winner at the Shriners earlier in the fall, which in my opinion is a great comp for this week.

Cody Williams: Sam Stevens 65/1 at DraftKings

After finishing outside the Top 50 at Sony and the AmEx, Stevens has finished runner-up and T17 in his last two starts, including gaining more than 10 strokes tee-to-green at Farmers. After finishing T28 in his debut in Phoenix last year, parlaying his form into a hot start isn’t far-fetched.

Brian Giuffra: Justin Thomas 25/1 at DraftKings 

As Matt mentioned above, Thomas has a great history at TPC Scottsdale and is in strong form heading into one of his favorite events. He finished T48 last week at Pebble but was second at the American Express with a 23-under total. His approach game remains elite and his putting has improved so far this year. 

Favorite Prop Bet

Iain MacMillan: Winner to Birdie 72nd Hole Yes +400 at DraftKings 

The scoring average at the 18th hole at TPC Sawgrass is 4.04, which is a touch over par, but not by enough to warrant 4-1 odds. Let’s place a bet on the winner to grab this tournament by the horns and record a birdie on the final hole.

Matt Vincenzi: Kurt Kitayama Top 20 +230 at DraftKings 

Kitayama loves TPC Scottsdale as evidenced by his finishes of T23 and T8 in his two starts at the WM Phoenix Open. He hits it a long way and regularly gains strokes off the tee on the field. Kitayama ranks 5th in strokes-gained total on courses that are considered “driver heavy.” 

John Schwarb: Playoff/Yes +350 at DraftKings 

There have been six playoffs in the last nine years, causing Super Bowl kickoff angst. My only concern would be my outright running away with it.

Brian Kirschner: Tom Hoge Top 20 +300 at DraftKings 

One of the best iron players on the PGA Tour is coming off a 17th-place finish at Pebble, where he gained 4.6 strokes from tee to green. I think +300 is a great price for a golfer who finished inside the top 20 last year at this event. 

Cody Williams: Scottie Scheffler or Justin Thomas to Win Double Chance +225 at DraftKings

Considering that we’re looking at Scottie sitting at +280 to win by himself, getting the addition of JT and still being north of 2/1 odds has my full attention. 

Brian Giuffra: Will There Be a Hole-In-One: Yes -120 at FanDuel

Sure, it’s minus odds, but rooting for a hole-in-one at the stadium course is always the right play. Even if you bet $12 and win $10, you can say you were on the right side of history. 

Final Score Prediction

• Iain MacMillan: -22
• Matt Vincenzi:-22
• John Schwarb: -20
• Brian Kirschner: -21
• Cody Williams: -18
• Brian Giuffra: -20